CANZUK

[Craton]

Seems there's no thread on CANZUK. The Poll will remain open.

CANZUK is a proposed alliance comprising Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom as part of an international organisation or confederation similar in scope to the former European Economic Community.[5] This includes increased trade, foreign policy co-operation, military co-operation and mobility of citizens between the four states, tied together by similar economic systems, social values and political and legal systems, in addition to speaking English.[6] The idea is lobbied by the advocacy group CANZUK International[7] and largely supported by British conservatives.[8] Other supporters include think tanks such as the Adam Smith Institute,[9] the Henry Jackson Society,[10] Bruges Group[11] and politicians from the four countries.

The CANZUK alliance has the potential to create a top five superpower. However, and please correct me if I'm wrong, CANZUK still remains a proposal.

With the changing geopolitical environmental in our region, CANZUK seems to be a good fit and in our best interest.
So what are the benefits or trade offs and should we sign up?

 

[Craton]

From AIIA albeit from 2021:

The rise of the CANZUK concept coincides with recent global events such as Brexit and the protectionist Buy America policy. Political elites from potential member states are far from dismissing the concept, which might bring into being a powerful economic bloc rivalling the European Union, China, and the United States.

This article was originally published on 2 February 2021. It is one of the top ten most read articles published in Australian Outlook in 2021.

CANZUK is a novel idea based on the creation of a new free trading bloc between the countries of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The idea for CANZUK is not entirely new, but it has taken on a new dynamism given recent world events involving these four countries. In the context of this new enthusiasm, there has been a push to explain what a CANZUK agreement would look like and a website devoted to its promotion.

Like most free trade zones, CANZUK would reduce tariff barriers, facilitate free flow of goods and people, and presumably contain provisions to enhance military, diplomatic, and scientific cooperation. The economic power of a possible CANZUK trading bloc would be immense, contributing a total GDP of 6.3 trillion US dollars (2019), thus placing it in third position in the world behind the Asian giant, China.

What has happened to stimulate interest in CANZUK?

Never before has the work of CANZUK been taken up by so many political elites. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and several Conservative Party backbenchers have voiced interest in the proposed agreement. In Canada, Conservative opposition leader Erin O’Toole, with his party’s grassroots backing, has expressed support. In January 2021, the New Zealand parliament was in receipt of a positive CANZUK report it commissioned. In Australia, several political leaders have expressed interest in fleshing out the CANZUK concept.

Without knowing the exact economic, political, social, and military components of such an alliance, it is difficult to project what a detailed plan of CANZUK might look like. Nevertheless, in economic terms, it would propel its four partners into the status of a world economic power bloc just behind the formidable Chinese economy. Unlike the European Union, there would be little need for an overarching CANZUK parliament or bureaucracy or a dense regulatory framework for movement of goods and persons. Simplicity over complexity is the watchword, with minimal ideological differences which could spark issues over human rights or possible immigration glitches.

Individual CANZUK Partner State rationales

The UK has just completed long and arduous Brexit negotiations with its former European Union partners. It is now on its own, facing international economic forces that dwarf its national economic power. CANZUK offers strength in numbers, and represents for some a nostalgic return to Empire and Commonwealth leadership by the UK. Great Britain is already negotiating free trade deals with New Zealand and Australia, so CANZUK would not be a logistical leap. CANZUK may also help blunt the edge, or perhaps delay the onset, of Scottish independence by bringing it into a powerful alliance of more homogenous nations with a diluted UK leadership role. It would offer a more homogenous Anglophone grouping with similar histories and political ideologies than those connecting the 27 European states to the European Union, beset with immense differences in language, political ideologies, culture, and historical development.

For Canada, CANZUK is a chance to up its game internationally, as the country has been suffering after decades of decay. CANZUK would provide Canada a platform to transition from being a middle power to a major power overnight, equipped with new diplomatic, economic, and political tools to assert its independence vis à vis the United States and the world. Recent decrees by the new US president, Joe Biden, have once again illustrated Canada’s near total dependence on trade with America. President Biden has already quashed the Keystone Pipeline project designed to move Canadian oil south and signed the ultra-protectionist “Buy America” policy. Such actions exemplify how the Canadian economy is exposed to tumults south of the border. CANZUK might be a way out of the economic straight jacket that geography has created for the Canadian economy and create new markets.

Like Canada, if CANZUK can achieve greater trade links among its members, Australia could reduce its dependency on trade with China by creating new markets elsewhere. The growing militarism of China in the South Asian region and its trade monopoly could finally be tempered by a powerful liberal democratic bloc capable of achieving consensus on a host of international issues including support for a free Hong Kong, the Uyghurs, Tibet, and political liberalisation in China.

New Zealand would multiply its influence in the region and in the world more than any other of the three other partners. Free trade negotiations could be simplified and improved by joining a trade bloc with similar political and social values.

Natural Advantages

Sharing common values and a British colonial history, CANZUK members are also part of a key intelligence network. The “Five Eyes Network” is an anglophone intelligence network including the United States. Commonality of language, liberal democratic values, and potential diplomatic power are attractions leading to adhesion to CANZUK. Despite Canada’s unsuccessful attempts to obtain a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) non-permanent seat, CANZUK might be able to do far better. Based on its projected economic and political might, CANZUK could even obtain a permanent UNSC seat, if ever its present outdated structure is changed. As well, increased economic and diplomatic leverage of a CANZUK agreement might work to advantage in a COVID-19-type crisis by leveraging pharmaceutical vaccines for its citizens.

Obstacles

Many observers point to geography as a reason why CANZUK might not work. The distances between the partners are indeed vast. Yet, in 2021, this factor has decreased in importance as transportation technology and communications have vastly improved. The capitals of Ottawa and London are only a six-hour flight away. The other two partners are further away, but can be reached at any moment using an endless array of communications technologies.

Additionally, Canada’s French-speaking Province of Québec is unlikely to support CANZUK. The presence of the UK and the historical connection to British domination in North America would appear like a replay of the historic 1759 Battle of the Plains of Abraham in Québec, where the British defeated the French and asserted the dominance of English language and culture. French-speaking Québec has never and will never accept a role as junior partner in any transboundary Anglophone alliance. All political parties in Québec have refused to sign the Canadian Constitution repatriated from Westminster in the 1980s. Without Québec’s political assent, no political party can hold power in the country for long in an increasingly decentralised confederation. Québec could also be counted on to refuse to accept the Queen as head of state, one of the common binding elements of CANZUK.

The economic argument against CANZUK relates to the uneven development of members’ economies and trade relationships. Some trade links are quite weak, and the four economies are not necessarily symmetric in any way. For example, English agriculture may be submerged by agricultural imports from the other three members if tariff barriers to incoming goods are dropped. In fairness, however, increasing trade amongst the member states, and enhancing mutually complimentary economic sectors is one of the long-term objectives of CANZUK.

In Canada, CANZUK might get its first test soon. 2021 will likely see a federal election challenge to the minority Liberal government of Justin Trudeau as it continues to fumble its way through the COVID-19 pandemic, political scandals, and economic devastation created by American economic protectionism. CANZUK will certainly be one of the election issues. While ten years ago CANZUK was a dream, recent events have highlighted it cannot be discounted and continues to grow in importance.

Dr Bruce Mabley is the author of more than 50 published articles on international political and security issues since 2016. He is presently Director of the Mackenzie-Papineau Group, a grouping of international specialists, diplomats, journalists, researchers, and activists. Dr Mabley is a retired Canadian Foreign Service Officer, university administrator/professor, and international education specialist. Dr Mabley resides in Montréal, Québec.

This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Sounds like the last gasp of Empire! And somewhat apposite to raise the topic on Anzac Day.

But realistically, there seem to be too many disparate forces at work in each country and not enough cohesion, I'd think. Societies are too atomised .

Cultural overlaps; yes.
Westminster system; yes
Set ups like Five Eyes; yes

But that's about it.

 

[divs4ever]

not with the current regimes in each of the nations

MAYBE sometime in the future but the UK is liable to be a train-wreck by then

 

[qldfrog]

not with the current regimes in each of the nations

MAYBE sometime in the future but the UK is liable to be a train-wreck by then

My view.if we agree NZ does not count on the international scene..sorry NZ
You end up with a woke 2.0 primary producer with no military power and just no industry..a soon to be woke leftist Australia with no military power and just primary industry. And a uk, with remnants of military power, remnants of industry, the bomb, no social cohesion and under a Muslim takeover aka radical change of even basic values.you do not get much strength by joining world losers or second grades...

 

[divs4ever]

My view.if we agree NZ does not count on the international scene..sorry NZ
You end up with a woke 2.0 primary producer with no military power and just no industry..a soon to be woke leftist Australia with no military power and just primary industry. And a uk, with remnants of military power, remnants of industry, the bomb, no social cohesion and under a Muslim takeover aka radical change of even basic values.you do not get much strength by joining world losers or second grades...

yes but strategic and full of potential , AND small enough to be made an example of ( for NZ )

think the EU sanctions on Russia ( and how they seem to be going wrong )

second grade might be a bit diplomatic

Oz and Canada have plenty of resources , but China seems to have won the hearts of Afghanistan , has some influence in Mongolia , can always ignore sanctions on North Korea , if China sweet-talks nicely it can probably help develop all those 'Russia-friendly ' stans ( Kazakhstan , etc etc ) , so Australia/Canada can go find new customers ( in about 5 to 10 years ) to replace China ( and possibly Taiwan , maybe South Korea as well ) the competition won't be trading in US dollars and are closer to China

interesting to watch will be Indonesia which MIGHT stay neutral , find a trading bloc that includes India and China irresistible , OR ( less likely ) cooperate more closely with Australia and NZ ( but i suspect the new wokeness will disgust Indonesia )

 

[Craton]

Hmm, is this still a thing?
Craton heads for the search engines, whoosh..................

 

[Craton]

Hmm, is this still a thing?
Craton heads for the search engines, whoosh..................

Yes it is, and with the US of A inflicting tarrifs on all and sundry, CANZUK will be high on the pollies discussion, debate and key note lists.

 

[divs4ever]

Yes it is, and with the US of A inflicting tarrifs on all and sundry, CANZUK will be high on the pollies discussion, debate and key note lists.

and we ( Australia ) would be crazy enough to join the coalition of disasters

Oz + NZ close enough , no mad missile jockeys in the way , but combined not such a big deal in the global scheme of things

NZ is in a recession ( and we probably are as well ) the problem is Canada , and UK , they have gone far beyond the usual self-mutilation ( piercings , studs , tattoos and branding , etc. )

neither Canada or UK are convenient logistically ( to the good parts ) to Australia/NZ , and realistically what can they add ( apart from extreme views ) , sure they have more cash ..at the moment

but there are plenty of potential customers nearby ( Asia , Pacific Islands , PNG ) all we need is to cut red tape so local industries can spring up

let Canada and UK embrace in a parasitic union if they like , we are better off trying to be neutral and trade with anyone sensible

just to be fair , tariffs have been applied by the EU and several other nations for decades , so long ago most people forget all the hidden taxes on the poor consumer , now the US MIGHT do it harder .. but tariffs are far from new

 

[mullokintyre]

The problem is that AUS and Canada and NZ are all going to be trying to export the same things to UK.
Australias top exports to the UK are dominated by the very first line in the table below.

Which is exactly the same as Canada, but on a larger scale.


We need to be in a group where those things are supplied mainly by us.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

The problem is that AUS and Canada and NZ are all going to be trying to export the same things to UK.
Australias top exports to the UK are dominated by the very first line in the table below.
View attachment 196660
Which is exactly the same as Canada, but on a larger scale.
View attachment 196661

We need to be in a group where those things are supplied mainly by us.
Mick

Australia and Canada are similar:
We just a little bit less WEF enslaved as we are exporting to asia whereas Canada is exporting to the US..roughly..
We are perfect competitors...

 

[divs4ever]

The problem is that AUS and Canada and NZ are all going to be trying to export the same things to UK.
Australias top exports to the UK are dominated by the very first line in the table below.
View attachment 196660
Which is exactly the same as Canada, but on a larger scale.
View attachment 196661

We need to be in a group where those things are supplied mainly by us.
Mick

and more importantly , UK and Canada have a relatively interference-free path for bilateral trade ( similar to Australia and NZ )

now Australia COULD send goods across the Pacific to the Canadian West Coast but the majority of the Canadian population is closer to the East Coast

would be like importing in Perth or Port Hedland and selling your stuff in Sydney/Melbourne ( given the seasonal snow , across OZ might be more reliable )

look at the world currently there are extra hazards navigating the Suez Canal , possibly increased costs using the Panama Canal

it just doesn't make a logistical sense unless those exports are unavailable elsewhere at a huge premium

 

[Craton]

Thanks for the replies and yes, tariffs have and will be around for a long time to come.

However, even though the focus of CANZUK is primarily free trade, I find it interesting that the "old empire" still resonants thus my thinking is that thanks to Trumpenomics (1st and 2nd terms), I can't shake the thought that there's a defence element to CANZUK as well.

Especially with the Aussie/Canuck over-the-horizon sale announced recently.
From the ABC Wed 19 Mar and reads in part.

Australia's 'biggest defence export' was meant to go to the US first, but Canada snuck past Donald Trump​

For months, senior officials have been discussing exporting Australia's world-leading radar technology JORN to the United States, but after Donald Trump's return to the White House, Canada saw an opportunity and leapt.

Overnight, new Canadian leader Mark Carney spoke to his counterpart, Anthony Albanese, then flew to his country's Arctic territory of Nunavut to announce a $6.5 billion high-tech Australian military purchase.

"Today, I'm announcing that our government will be working with our long-standing defence and security partner Australia to build a new, long-range, over-the-horizon military radar system," he said.

"[It] will enable Canada to detect and respond to both air and maritime threats over our Arctic both faster and from further away. It will most fundamentally keep all Canadians safe."

Following President Trump's repeated threats to annex Canada and Greenland, Ottawa is purchasing the Australian-developed technology known as the Jindalee Over-the-Horizon Radar (JORN) to build its new Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar system.

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks for the replies and yes, tariffs have and will be around for a long time to come.

However, even though the focus of CANZUK is primarily free trade, I find it interesting that the "old empire" still resonants thus my thinking is that thanks to Trumpenomics (1st and 2nd terms), I can't shake the thought that there's a defence element to CANZUK as well.

Especially with the Aussie/Canuck over-the-horizon sale announced recently.
From the ABC Wed 19 Mar and reads in part.

LOL

Albo ( and crew ) finally found a market place ( over the polar ice-cap ) where it will work properly

the only problem is two ( maybe three or four ) hostile nations have hyper-sonic capability

that is the missile ( or missile cluster ) descends at more than 5 times the speed of sound , giving very little time to react/intercept AND some of these missiles drop from ( low/mid orbit ) from outer space ( probably above the radar scanning range )

nice that Albo seems to has sealed a deal , catastrophic if it turns out to be obsolete tech

 

[Craton]

From what I understand radio waves travel at approx. the speed of light but rightly so, no much of a warning but a warning just the same.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

how it works

Jindalee Operational Radar Network - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[qldfrog]

how it works

Jindalee Operational Radar Network - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Was developed in Australia by french Thompson/thales around the 1995s
Well aware of this as the 300 +french expats a year sent by these companies at the time delayed my Australian immigration by nearly 3 years, as we then were under a quota by country. Roughly 350 a year then and as expected, expats were first and left no place for independent immigrants selected on points
Edited: read below cf searches

 

[qldfrog]

Was developed in Australia by french Thompson/thales around the 1995s
Well aware of this as the 300 +french expats a year sent by these companies at the time delayed my Australian immigration by nearly 3 years, as we then were under a quota by country. Roughly 350 a year then and as expected, expats were first and left no place for independent immigrants selected on points

Very strange, nowhere does it mention France.
Just handover from awa to bae.
As i was in france 1994 working for an Alcatel air surveillance and defence branch at the time, i even contacted their french headquarters but got as answer they were only sending already trained professionals.
Maybe they did not complete the project or were just a small part? A bit weird
This is 1990s tech so i should be ok with no asio breathing on my back.

 

[qldfrog]

Very strange, nowhere does it mention France.
Just handover from awa to bae.
As i was in france 1994 working for an Alcatel air surveillance and defence branch at the time, i even contacted their french headquarters but got as answer they were only sending already trained professionals.
Maybe they did not complete the project or were just a small part? A bit weird
This is 1990s tech so i should be ok with no asio breathing on my back.

Does not really matter, further research mentioned marconi but not thales, was maybe a team for the bidding?
Radar over the horizon is relatively high tech indeed own by only a few countries

 

[divs4ever]

From what I understand radio waves travel at approx. the speed of light but rightly so, no much of a warning but a warning just the same.

travel yes , but they need to bounce back , be assessed and processed and those milliseconds count ( since the defenses aren't automatically launched ... nor are human actions , like ducking for cover )
now according to some sources a hyper-sonic missile creates a heated-air/plasma buffer which MIGHT affect radar responses ie bounce unevenly or be absorbed partially , but more data might be needed yet

AND the 'Chinese space Vehicle ' orbits the Earth ( at least once ) to build speed and then drops through the stratosphere/atmosphere .. in probably a steep descent

but then who is liable to attack Canada , more likely attacks over the Arctic Circle are liable to target the US ( and less likely Mexico )