CanOz's intermittent and sporadic trades

[CanOz]

Well over half can be wrong
Well over half can be right.

Your only wrong if your on the wrong side of a trade according to everyone on the right side.
It doesn't matter that your wrong only how long you stay wrong.

Discretionary can and does out perform algos.
But for how long and with how much?

I must say that I agree with a lot of what GB has posted up on this thread--re Volume
price / control areas

That because you don't understand it, clearly.

Volume profiles are widely used by all future traders that I know of existing in a professional context. They're the most used tool next to the DOM itself....oops, another one that you find of little use....face palm...

 

[tech/a]

That because you don't understand it, clearly.

Volume profiles are widely used by all future traders that I know of existing in a professional context. They're the most used tool next to the DOM itself....oops, another one that you find of little use....face palm...

Where do you get the idea I find both Market Profile and DOM of no use?
Studied Steidlmayer when you were at high school.
Best book is from CBOT.

Your taking my comments personally Can Oz.
They are simply an observation.

If you think about my comments above any strong move long or short "Could" have more people agreeing
than those who don't. Those in agreement could be way less than 50% but higher in contracts which is more
likely.
The middle of the bell curve sees more contracts traded at X but its the moves well outside of the value area
or back to it that are most profitable. The trick as I'm pointing out is actually getting on them rather than
looking back in hindsight.

Maybe I'm missing your buy and sells?

Do you believe that without DOM and Profile you cannot be profitable trading Futures?
In a discretionary manner.

 

[CanOz]

Here's a profile build from this morning on the HSI, two nice profile build actually. Both results in tradeable breakouts....

Certainly could trade with volume profile and with out a DOM, but i can increase my win rate with order flow insight and i get a better visual with the profiles than a plain chart.

Happy to have a constructive discussion with you tech, but i'm not wasting my time with GB anymore.



Unwinding of shorts and establishment of new longs....

 

[Joules MM1]

Here's a profile build from this morning on the HSI, two nice profile build actually. Both results in traceable breakouts....

Certainly could trade with volume profile and with out a DOM, but i can increase my win rate with order flow insight and i get a better visual with the profiles than a plain chart.

Happy to have a constructive discussion with you tech, but i'm not wasting my time with GB anymore.

View attachment 87416

S, would a small video be a good idea if you've got capacity and the bother....so many nuances for the average viewer to take on and i think your data and technique would be too scientific from a jpeg-only point of view....just offering an idea of how to translate your well-worked regime into a lay persons grasp

enjoying the thread

 

[tech/a]

3 min Chart
30 minute Profiles?

Would enjoy that

Happy to have a constructive discussion with you tech,

Id like to delve a little deeper with you on M/P
Might be a bit disjointed as I'm at the office 7/5.30 ish

Like the Vid idea.

 

[CanOz]

Three session profile build today resulting in a 150 point short squeeze....was hoping this waited for Monday....This is the MHI

 

[CanOz]

I'd love to do a video, perhaps next week if trading on Monday is flat....

 

[CanOz]

A small trade to finished the week....after hours on the HSI as the ES broke down.

 

[CanOz]

Market profile strategies

 

[CanOz]

Linda Raschke

 

[CanOz]

Developing an edge...

 

[peter2]

Thank you. Very interesting presentation on the Mesch method using market profile. I hadn't seen that technique before. I'm disappointed that my software can't construct MP charts so that I may look at it on a variety of markets.

 

[CanOz]

Copper is in for an interesting week/month end. I believe there is a topping pattern in place and it looks "ripe", to steal a Meschism....

 

[peter2]

Yes, it's certainly intriguing as it's based on market auction theory and as we know, people do the same things over and over again creating these patterns.

 

[CanOz]

I guess an evolution might be better to look at....can do later. Might be interesting.

For a breakout of this value area I like to see some acceptance in that area of the blue box first. Sort of like a staging area....

 

[CanOz]

Having just started to trade the HKEX markets two days a week, i was keen to apply the edge development method that Peter Davies outlines in his webinar, posted above. I've had my eye on a volume impression chart and an entry technique based on order flow imbalances. So i decided to quantify the results of taking every signal, regardless of context, levels etc. Here are the first 50 results compiled over about 5 session, some trending and some rotational from last Monday until today. Not bad for no filtering, over 3 to 1 reward to risk. An acceptable win rate. These stats were gathered both live and back reviewing. I'll do some market replay this week as well. I'm having an indicator coded up that will spot the setup for me, then place a marker on the chart. Certainly looks worth pursuing.

 

[CanOz]

Exploring the same edge on the FDAX on last night's session yielded 25 trades.
FDAX - 10 range - Trend Day
10 W
15 L
40% Wins
Avg. Win 24.5 points
Avg. Loss 6 points
Ratio 4.1:1
Total net points = 154.4
Largest Win = 59
Largest Loss = -7.5

 

[peter2]

I think we did a good job with the analysis of copper. There was a probe lower, not quite as low as the March low and this was bought. The daily bar ending with a long tail (close near the high).
And then, woosh! Price is now near top of the range with the highest high at 3.35.
Unfortunately I didn't trade it but the Mesch method of using volume profiles is intriguing.

 

[CanOz]

Yeah i have just been focusing on the DAX and the HHI but i was keeping an eye on the HG Daily. I guess the key there was we knew buyers had to step in or stops would be hit and much lower prices to be seen. Explosive move though, would have been nice to have been around when it setup. I haven't trading commodities as much lately, i just wasn't getting the time at the right point in the sessions to get onto positions without getting shaken out...and Ninjatrader was just coping with keeping an eye on so many markets, just crashing all the time.

There were three opportunities in the Asian or Euro sessions to get in though...Notice how developed the value area was after it had more time to build.

 

[CanOz]

Well after switching platforms and developers i'm well on the road to developing a system based on Order Flow....This short video shows a remarkable winning streak on the FDAX by the latest iteration of the algo. Lots of work to do yet.