CanOz's intermittent and sporadic trades

[CanOz]

Good Morning all - Trade plan
Wrote some of this whilst doing my cardio at the gym this morning. "Possibly a gap up, not allot of shorts on this market so we could gap up and then either test and continue or trade back into yestys value area. We just looking for a pullback and eventually we could see some consolidation before the advance continues."

The Nikkei did exactly that, looked above and failed. So the HSI could still gap up but unlikely, if it does well sell any sign of weakness at all opportunities after the pre - open. I'd expect perhaps an open in the ON value area. There, we can look for test of the ON VAH and VALs. Then looking for a trade back to the the VPOC at 31380. Just looking for a down day or pull back here, its a pretty strong trend. 31200 should off support for continuation. So if our hypothesis plays our we will looked for trapped buyers as opportunities to sell. All oif this of course will be before the news, at 12:00 PM - Industrial Production. We'll look to see how that reaction hits the longs in this market. We'll let that news settle and then evaluate the opportunities on our levels with more detail then, i'll post a mini plan.

Two charts, Nikkei and HSI

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Tradingview. Will become a leader in platforms, imo. They're doing everything right.

 

[CanOz]

Well today's action was nothing short of spectacular. The only think more spectacular was how i failed to take advantage of it. I basically tried to fade the sell off the whole time, in fact my only profitable trades were shorts. This is particularly difficult for me as i normally do well on trend days. Typically after rotational day, where you can fade spikes, you get caught. The market cut through levels that typically hold like a hot knife through butter.

On a positive note, i now have a more reliable workspace as i move more stuff away from Ninjatrader onto TradingView. I lost connectivity for a short period and when i got it back my charts had large gaps in data.

Lots to take away and improve on, but I've got a few days before i come back at it....

I traded the MHI today, the mini. I'll stick to that and the HHI for now.

 

[CanOz]

For the remainder of the days this week I’ll screen record the market and review it later. I’m also recording some market replay data. All this in hopes of developing some micro plays...

 

[kid hustlr]

Can't argue with the set up!

 

[CanOz]

Almost certainly we'll see an open drive if the HSI opens above 31200, 12400 on the HHI. However, given recent geopolitical events, there is a chance that we could open just under those levels and either test and fail or just fail. If an open drive we'd try to grab a ride, but otherwise we need to look for trapped buyers below those levels....I doubt i'll be trading, instead waiting on a call from immigration...

 

[CanOz]

Wow, i was surprised to see such a dramatic fail. An open drive followed by a total rejection of the VAL from the 14th, then a sell off back to the 31000 zone. I scalped around allot today, never really got anywhere...but i'm making progress on my set of plays...

the Nikkei has powered up and the ES is looking to fill this mornings gap down...

 

[tech/a]

Can

After having a read through the last 4 pages
I cant see an advantage in what you are doing?

I know you like M/P but cant see it being beneficial to your bottom line.
It just seems the practical application of the "Plan" isn't delivering?

Bit harsh I know but?

 

[CanOz]

First time this has happened to me for a while, jumped the creek, with me in it...

 

[CanOz]

Really tech? In each case my hypothesis played out. The problem doesn’t lie with my ability to develop context. My problem lies with turning that into profitable days on the hang seng. I appreciate your feedback, however this process is identical to what I did that eventually led to my success with trading the Dax.

The pace of trade is taking a bit to get used to, but I’m making improvement. I’m still over trading but that will change. 2/3 days I traded were positive days. What exactly isn’t working? I’ve never seriously traded these markets before??

After the session is finished I do a rigorous review of my trades. As I remove the overtrading, add more micro plays, I’ll see a further improvement.

My plan is always:
1. Get profitable
2. Get profitable after costs
3. Get profitable on 2-3 contracts
4. Get profitable on 4-6 contracts

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Today after the level at 31009 (31013 vpoc) held, well look for the range from 31009 to 30816 to trade today. Its hard not to favour a downside extension to 30480 based on the position on the composite.

Above 30999 and we'll be looking for shorts to cover.

30640 may provide enough support (high volume rejection) to be a serious zone to end a decline.

I'm working today so like to see this develop over the next few sessions (Morning, Aft, Evening) today and be in a position next week for a scenario where we break out of the range.

 

[CanOz]

I think allot of time people see the volume profiles are being complicated and cannot understand them or how they can be used in trading.


First of all market profile cannot be used in all markets as it was originally intended. That’s because most markets trade Extended Trading Hours (ETH) and the volume that occurs in the these periods is not as high as the Regular trading Hours (RTH). Therefore a traditional TPO that only measures time against price, is not relevant in ETH. Volume profiles however, are relevant in all time frames and that will never change unless volume is no longer available or trades are made in a dark pool (unlikely for futures for the majority of trades).


With that established let me say the most valuable characteristic of volume profiles for me is to show me where participants are committed. If I know where they are committed then I can determine with some degree of probability were they may want to get out of their commitments. This may look like a breakout of a value area (fat bit on the profile) or a successful retest of a profiles HVN (high volume node). It’s pretty much that simple. It’s just a way to organise the markets information and it has 100% confluence will all other successful methods of analysis because it is the transactions of the auction that one is looking it, nothing more and nothing less.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

With that established let me say the most valuable characteristic of volume profiles for me is to show me where participants are committed. If I know where they are committed then I can determine with some degree of probability were they may want to get out of their commitments.

Since most traders are wrong most of the time, I think the commitment of traders (by price level) indicates where not to enter a trade. Instead wait for the highly committed hoardes to get desperate, then hop on the opposite direction trade as they get out. Then of course one would need to know what the hoardes are hoping for - up or down.

But all these edges we use... if they had serious 'meat on the bone', they will get exploited into insignificance before you know it. Edges are just a whiff of potential, nothing more.

 

[CanOz]

Only half can be wrong GB....and as minwa has shown discretionary traders can still out perform algorithms.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Only half can be wrong GB....and as minwa has shown discretionary traders can still out perform algorithms.

As you know, a volume node says there's a lot of buyers and sellers at a particular price, both betting against each other for the next move. Such volume is always from the big players (both sides), but we never know their time frame. They may be big players using HFT scalping, or they may be big players building a position over hours or days. So finding distressed traders by loking at the volume areas may not even be possible. What I said in the previous post probably isn't tradable.

The notion that big players play against retail is sort of ridiculous to me. Wyckoff and others made it seem like this was the case. Big players play against each other, and what we do is of no interest to them.

Probably there will be ease of movement in low volume areas, but that's way too hard to determine from a VAP chart. There's just too many places you can set the interval, and when you change the interval, the whole landscape changes. Personally I can't find a use for volume at price style charts.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Even the very popular wave volume has major drawbacks. It seems useful in speccy stock trading, but in futures it almost works the opposite of what Weiss and co. say. Weiss' videos are so compelling, and yet when you put them into practice they don't work. You almost want to be looking for downward moves with high volume and upwards moves with low volume, which is the opposite of what he says.

There are ways to profit, obviously. Othwerwise retail futures traders wouldn't figure in the ATOs top earners stats.

 

[CanOz]

GB, the fact is there are transactions that have taken place, for each futures contract sold it must be owned by someone else and visa versa. Some of those traders will not hold on to thier positions and will be stopped out as the market moves against them. It is irrelevant to me what time frame they are, only that they are aggressive and I can see that on my DOM.

I'm quite happy to post my blog to Twitter each day if it means I avoid argument. This is my thread and I don't enjoy the semantic rhetoric....

 

[tech/a]

Only half can be wrong GB....and as minwa has shown discretionary traders can still out perform algorithms.

Well over half can be wrong
Well over half can be right.

Your only wrong if your on the wrong side of a trade according to everyone on the right side.
It doesn't matter that your wrong only how long you stay wrong.

Discretionary can and does out perform algos.
But for how long and with how much?

I must say that I agree with a lot of what GB has posted up on this thread--re Volume
price / control areas.

You almost want to be looking for downward moves with high volume and upwards moves with low volume, which is the opposite of what he says.

Which if it is the way ---- you should and can trade a plan around it.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

GB, the fact is there are transactions that have taken place, for each futures contract sold it must be owned by someone else and visa versa. Some of those traders will not hold on to thier positions and will be stopped out as the market moves against them. It is irrelevant to me what time frame they are, only that they are aggressive and I can see that on my DOM.

I'm quite happy to post my blog to Twitter each day if it means I avoid argument. This is my thread and I don't enjoy the semantic rhetoric....

I don't do rhetoric. I do real.

No point arguing though. Let's all go our separate ways.

 

[CanOz]

Your real is all talk mate. Post a REAL broker statement or an account balance to back up your endless drivel, or shut the trap door.