BPT - Beach Energy

[So_Cynical]

4 interesting announcements in the last week or so.

• More oil in Egypt http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120305/pdf/424tkdn6qshfdr.pdf
• BPT into the ASX100 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120305/pdf/424tlylzr56kqv.pdf
• Bank of America substantial holder http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120306/pdf/424vmkx589l6ts.pdf
• Credit Suisse substantial holder http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120307/pdf/424w949c97ldg6.pdf

 

[Boggo]

If this is a Wave 4 it needs to come down a bit more to around the 0.382 retracement area, I am tending to think that we haven't seen the end of Wave 3 yet.

Looks like we have seen the end of W.3.
At $1.41 this morning it has hit the W.4 zone at the minimum retracement of 0.382.
Hoping for an indication of whether it is going to resume the uptrend or hang around in the 0.382 to 0.50 retracement zone.

(click to expand)

 

[Joules MM1]

Looks like we have seen the end of W.3.
At $1.41 this morning it has hit the W.4 zone at the minimum retracement of 0.382.
Hoping for an indication of whether it is going to resume the uptrend or hang around in the 0.382 to 0.50 retracement zone.

(click to expand)

shaving a tad over 21% is a big pull back and my comments of a 'certain...orchestration' to the pullback is something to stand by based on recent volume moves like friday.....the daily bar itself maybe a tad deceiving and while it looks like a low is in place i think we'll need to see solid evidence that we have slightly higher vwap.....if we can get back into the buy zone i'd want to see a higher level of volume but not as high as the normal turnover (minus the extraneous activity) there maybe some news coming too based on the whole game since the 1785 high ....money flow suggests buying finally overtaking cheapening supply.....

data: Twiggs

i own the stock and adding

price has a good history, once it's made it's base it simply climbs with an initial shallow pullback to take any final weak volume .....the sweeping line amplifies that with only one rare exception

i've seen a lot of elliott counts on this chart.....most of them are wildly inaccurate mainly becuase they dont take into consideration the overlapping nature of the chart or how the stock is attracting the money that's driving trend.......i find it very hard to believe that numpty money is driving this stock.......contains all the personality of a bull trend with a long way to go even if we require a period of consolidation........

2c

 

[Boggo]

shaving a tad over 21% is a big pull back and my comments of a 'certain...orchestration' to the pullback is something to stand by based on recent volume moves like friday

i've seen a lot of elliott counts on this chart.....most of them are wildly inaccurate mainly becuase they dont take into consideration the overlapping nature of the chart or how the stock is attracting the money that's driving trend.......i find it very hard to believe that numpty money is driving this stock.......contains all the personality of a bull trend with a long way to go even if we require a period of consolidation........

The pull backs have been text book so far on the weekly chart, ie 50% min pull back on Wave 2 and 38.2% min pull back on Wave 4.

Wouldn't mind seeing some of those charts you refer to.

Weekly position at the moment, Wave 4 is seldom straight forward. (click to expand)

 

[mr. jeff]

Nothing very technical to compare with you boogo, but this looks like it is going to hold above that support. You chart indicates a move down further if I am right in reading it.

The potential capital raising has put a hold on things, but my question is specifically what is happening with all that volume in the last week ?

It appears to me that it has been selling down, however the last bar closed on its highs, albeit with major volume, a lot of selling into any strength perhaps. I am looking for the right time to re-enter as this is a stock that is very positively exposed to the energy sector and should see further upwards movement, but of course no point in speculating, I want the chart to say it.

So are we possibly waiting for a visit to 1.35, strong rejection and then we are off again ?

 

[Boggo]

View attachment 46469

Nothing very technical to compare with you boogo, but this looks like it is going to hold above that support. You chart indicates a move down further if I am right in reading it.

Not necessarily mr.jeff, just as it did with the wave 2 it met the minimum retracement of 50%, wave 4 min retracement is 38.2 and it has met that min requirement.
There is nothing however to say that it wont turn down as with any scenario.

The overall pattern (charts above) is based on the weekly chart but the daily chart provides the entry and stop etc.

I am back in at 1.54, stop at 1.45 and R/R of 3.2 based on an initial target of 1.83.
A stop at the recent low of 1.40 only provides a R/R of 1.9 so is not an option.

 

[mr. jeff]

The pull backs have been text book so far on the weekly chart, ie 50% min pull back on Wave 2 and 38.2% min pull back on Wave 4.

Wouldn't mind seeing some of those charts you refer to.

Weekly position at the moment, Wave 4 is seldom straight forward. (click to expand)

Ok just realised Boggo that your chart actually showed an earlier study and that it has reached that target. Well done there.
With that in mind I am looking for signs that it is turning back to trend.



You can see where I am looking. That increasing volume is major. Seems that it is being seriously taken up.

 

[So_Cynical]

The potential capital raising has put a hold on things, but my question is specifically what is happening with all that volume in the last week ?

What potential capital raising....link please.

--------------

I'm super spewing i didn't hold on to a few more BPT shares.

 

[mr. jeff]

Potential - as in there has been suggestion that one will be needed in the next few months in the media and on forums etc. which was discussed at the end of Feb. coinciding with the slide that we have seen. Sorry should have been clearer.

There is no news or announcements.

 

[So_Cynical]

Potential - as in there has been suggestion that one will be needed in the next few months in the media and on forums etc. which was discussed at the end of Feb. coinciding with the slide that we have seen. Sorry should have been clearer.

There is no news or announcements.

According to the half yearly report (Dec 2011) they had 58 million in cash and make approximately 600K a week, so they would of had about 65 million before they paid the last dividend of around 11 million....leaving them with at least 54 million.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120227/pdf/424mks7gwq5v63.pdf

With the high oil price and increased cash flows they are not exactly struggling...though deep core sample drilling is expensive.

 

[mr. jeff]

Yes that is interesting and I declare that I know nothing of the actual situation or the reasons behind it, I just backed off and waited until this morning to get back in.

Beach on the up but capital raising looms for drilling
February 28, 2012

Total production of 3.46 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) was down 0.7 per cent from 3.48 mmboe a year earlier.

INVESTORS expect Beach Energy will need to raise capital to fund its aggressive drilling program and sold off the company's shares despite a solid profit result.

see here

and this:

Beach Energy (BPT)

05 March 2012 | Bianca Hartge-Hazelman

Citi has a “sell/high risk” rating on Beach Energy, with a price target of price target of $1.36, saying it remains cautious about the economics of the company’s Cooper shale gas project.

I didn't expect the talk either and whether it was simply a ploy by the bigger players to try and shake people out I don't know... time will tell.

 

[So_Cynical]

Yes that is interesting and I declare that I know nothing of the actual situation or the reasons behind it, I just backed off and waited until this morning to get back in.



see here

and this:

I didn't expect the talk either and whether it was simply a ploy by the bigger players to try and shake people out I don't know... time will tell.

I was reading a presentation tonight where they were proposing a 300+ million total spend in FY12..so yep they are gona need some money.

A placement of around 120 mill and a rights issue to raise another 80 perhaps. :dunno: maybe a note of some kind :dunno:

 

[oldblue]

With in excess of 1.1 billion shares on issue, a rights issue to raise a "mere" $80m looks unlikely. Something like a one for 20 at $1.35?

 

[mr. jeff]

With in excess of 1.1 billion shares on issue, a rights issue to raise a "mere" $80m looks unlikely. Something like a one for 20 at $1.35?

I wouldn't be surprised if it is done institutionally at a very slight discount and perhaps started already hence the return to uptrend - with the following BPT has, it may not even ask privateers ?
Priced around 1.40 or so...perhaps word got out and some of the players sold at a premium to take it up shortly ? (OK maybe that is paranoid).

 

[oldblue]

No, not paranoia.

A placement is much more likely than an unwieldy 1 for 20 rights issue. Not fair to other shareholders of course but expediency is often the norm these days.

Let's hope that BPT management prove us wrong!

 

[oldblue]

So it's a bit of each.

A big institutional convertible note placement and a one for eight entitlement issue at $1.40.

A fair compromise, I guess.

 

[Not Rene]

So is it a good thing or a bad thing?

 

[notting]

So is it a good thing or a bad thing?

Well, as a share holder, that would depend on where you bought the stock.
If you listened to the company and felt it was going from an burner to an earner and so felt it was worth getting in on the recent highs you'd be sayen that's bad! I'm being diluted at less than what I bought for!
If you were a forward thinker and were in under a $1 or something like that you'd be thinking, that's gooooood! My company just got some cheap cash and so is more valuable.

 

[oldblue]

So is it a good thing or a bad thing?

Just an inevitable part of being an oil producer!

Won't know whether it's a good or bad thing until the contingent shale resource is proved up one way or the other. If it can be converted to product at an economic cost then it will be money well spent. If not, then it just dilutes the value of BPT shares!

 

[So_Cynical]

So is it a good thing or a bad thing?

Like most things in the market its a 2 edged sword.

Good thing cos they need the money to fund their ambitious plans, including the biggest known Shale Gas resource in the southern Hemisphere.

Bad cos the holders have to cough up money or get diluted..and with the note issue we still get a little diluted even if we take up all our rights/shares.

Personally my small Beach holding cost me 68 cents a share so its a bit of an average up for me and i hate averaging up, but will get a warm fuzzy feeling cos i know BPT will be putting my money to good use.