BPT - Beach Energy

[noirua]

Re: BPT - Beach ENERGY

Does anyone have any opinions on Beach's hostile takeover of ADE?
Beach reached $1.335 on Monday which was half a cent from my sell price :-/

It was a surprisingly hostile bid for a JV partner and sends out a strong signal to others that BPT are on the prowl. The main reason probably is the speed needed to takeover Adelaide; as they are only too aware that bigger giants are closing in on them.

 

[oldblue]

BPT's experience from the thwarted takeover bid for DLS in 2009 probably has some bearing on this.

Lesson learnt: Don't expect to pick up smaller JV partners cheaply by making a "friendly" offer.

 

[So_Cynical]

Does anyone have any opinions on Beach's hostile takeover of ADE?
Beach reached $1.335 on Monday which was half a cent from my sell price :-/

I saw it coming...and really wanted to be holding ADE at around the 10 or 11 cents level, but as usual i simply never had the funds available to take a position....i would be so rich if i had money ADE have 10% of the Shale Gas acreage that BPT is developing, i think its worth billions and BPT have decided its better to move on ADE now rather than later when it will cost them more.

An inevitable move that was easy to see coming....im not selling BPT until they are worth over $5 a share.

(16th-September-2011)
BPT hitting and maintaining new post GFC highs, a 38 month high this week is hardly a sign of weakness or a high probability potential short...shale is a game changer for Beach.

2 months later and it turns out i summed the situation up pretty well. ^

 

[seawitch]

ASX100 entry: the AGM presentation says Beach is 'knocking at the door' of the ASX100. I am based in the UK and would like some advice about when to sell to take advantage of the forthcoming index entry (if it happens). I have held BPT for some time and intend to continue holding but the index entry ought to be an opportunity to sell some and buy back cheaper later. The next ASX rebalancing day is Friday 16th December, after close. Don't understand how it happens on that day if it's after close. Does that mean it happens the following Monday. Does anyone have any experience of what the usual pattern is? Presumably index trackers can't buy ahead of time so everyone else will buy ahead and then sell when the index trackers can buy?

Also note that BPT has 2 previous high points just over AU$1.60 so that looks like a natural resistance point. Any advice or comments welcome.

 

[notting]

Just punched a hole through 1.45.
I like shorting this.
Hope it's a fake out.

 

[oldblue]

Just punched a hole through 1.45.
I like shorting this.
Hope it's a fake out.

I wouldn't have thought that there was much joy in shorting BPT at present. The SP's been in a steady uptrend since the end of 2011 on the strength of continued shale gas enthusiasm with no obvious reason for a quick reversal.

So a big punt on this going into reverse shortly?

 

[notting]

I think it trades on a lot of hope.
So I like it. It is a bit premature at this point to short.
Although I did leave a little one up there at 1.445 to get my attention.
Never lost shorting this one! Thanks for your opinion.
I was kind of wondering where it is in the Elliot wave count scheme of things.

 

[Trevor Perth]

Still rising $1.715 this morning. The target $5.00 is well within reach given the movement over the last couple of months.
Bring it on

 

[Joe Blow]

Still rising $1.715 this morning. The target $5.00 is well within reach given the movement over the last couple of months.
Bring it on

Trevor, a $5 price target is a big call on a stock that is currently trading at $1.70ish.

If this is a broker or analyst valuation, can you please remind everyone which broker/analyst made it and when? If you can link to it somewhere on the web, even better.

If this is your price target then per the forum rules can you please outline the basis for such a valuation?

Thanks!

 

[oldblue]

Still rising $1.715 this morning. The target $5.00 is well within reach given the movement over the last couple of months.
Bring it on

Whose target is the $5.00?

Sure would be nice and with over 1.1 billion shares on issue that would really move the Beach into the big time. A little optimistic though, I fear.

 

[notting]

Whose target is the $5.00?

Sure would be nice and with over 1.1 billion shares on issue that would really move the Beach into the big time. A little optimistic though, I fear.

They have been pumping out positive anouncements left right and center and have gone from being a burner to an earner. Their timeing has been pretty amazing with the oil Iran issue and "Greece resolution".
Looking forward to them running out of puff and the world remembering it is actually not generating much growth and the worst possible add on to that is high oil prices!!
One good thing about our Au$ is that it's keeping a lid on the fuel prices, which is a kind of rate hold in itself. Not so for our inflating friends however!! Oil prices tend to come off in rather extreme ways when they starts stopping economies!!!

 

[Boggo]

I was kind of wondering where it is in the Elliot wave count scheme of things.

At the moment looking at the weekly chart it is in a nice Wave 3 imo.
It hesitated at the min W.3 level but then continued on to where it is now in the typical range.
Today it hit $1.73 again and rolled back a bit.
Its behaviour/price action combined with some large sized patient buy orders leans me to believing that it may continue upwards.

My stop is at 1.61, just below the low of the latest bar on the weekly chart and that level also stands out on the daily chart.

Just my

(click to expand)

 

[Tysonboss1]

Still rising $1.715 this morning. The target $5.00 is well within reach given the movement over the last couple of months.
Bring it on

I can't see any fundamentals that would justify a share price of $5.00.

What makes you think it is worth this much, I can't see anything outside of $200 barrels of oil that would make it hit that level.

 

[notting]

Nice and clear. Thanks Boggo.

 

[So_Cynical]

.im not selling BPT until they are worth over $5 a share.

I suppose ill take a bit of the blame for the $5 talk...the above quote of mine was a bit of a throw away statement at the time and the figure was arrived at by quessing wildy and assuming a run away oil price at some stage in the near future (think Iran or a sharp US recovery) and the Shale deposit proving to be commercial at the upper end of the deposit/resource estimate (400+ TCF)

 

[noirua]

ICN Icon Energy have risen to 27c and it is possible BPT could bid for their partner. Depending on the price offered, this could be very good for Beach as a drilling agreement with Icon at ATP855p (Icon 40% Beach 60%) would end and ICN's Chinese gas supply agreement for ATP626P would be available to BPT.

 

[Boggo]

Nice and clear. Thanks Boggo.

No problem, looks like it could be about to give 1.73 another try

 

[Joules MM1]

At the moment looking at the weekly chart it is in a nice Wave 3 imo.
It hesitated at the min W.3 level but then continued on to where it is now in the typical range.
Today it hit $1.73 again and rolled back a bit.
Its behaviour/price action combined with some large sized patient buy orders leans me to believing that it may continue upwards.

My stop is at 1.61, just below the low of the latest bar on the weekly chart and that level also stands out on the daily chart.

Just my

(click to expand)

youre stopped out ? your re-entry price ?

here's some other ideas.....they fit your fractal ideas
topstocks.com.au/stock_discussion_forum.php?action=show_thread&threadid=745298#p745298

.......you'll need to log in to see charts

 

[Not Rene]

A big drop after a big rise :-/ Hope the next rally isn't too far away, I need new kitchen and carpet

 

[Boggo]

youre stopped out ? your re-entry price ?

here's some other ideas.....they fit your fractal ideas
topstocks.com.au/stock_discussion_forum.php?action=show_thread&threadid=745298#p745298

.......you'll need to log in to see charts

Yes, was stopped out, re-entry not sure, need a few more bars on the daily chart to see a reversal from here.
If this is a Wave 4 it needs to come down a bit more to around the 0.382 retracement area, I am tending to think that we haven't seen the end of Wave 3 yet.
Let it do its thing for a few days and see what it does, numerous other opportunities popping up at the moment.

Weekly chart - click to expand.