BOQ - Bank of Queensland

[Quant]

This acq negligible effect on earnings , BOQ forecast earn is flat next 3 years , given its been trading at around 14 x 2017 will no growth id suggest upside is limited , this is one on the list to short sell again actually . Recent weakness is simply linked to weakness across entire sector . I must admit one thing BOQ has going is great Div yield

 

[WRiley]

This acq negligible effect on earnings , BOQ forecast earn is flat next 3 years , given its been trading at around 14 x 2017 will no growth id suggest upside is limited , this is one on the list to short sell again actually . Recent weakness is simply linked to weakness across entire sector . I must admit one thing BOQ has going is great Div yield View attachment 69632 View attachment 69633

Tq Quant,.. if the earning is forecast to be flat in the next three years, then there is always a chance that the dividend may be reduced,...Depending on the reduced amt, this may not be a great divvy-paying stock anymore. Opinions ?

 

[Quant]

Tq Quant,.. if the earning is forecast to be flat in the next three years, then there is always a chance that the dividend may be reduced,...Depending on the reduced amt, this may not be a great divvy-paying stock anymore. Opinions ?

As long as earnings stay flat or better Div should maintain , the trend in forecast earn isnt the greatest though , Companies have a little wiggle room with payout ratios so can absorb a little negative growth

 

[WRiley]

As long as earnings stay flat or better Div should maintain , the trend in forecast earn isnt the greatest though , Companies have a little wiggle room with payout ratios so can absorb a little negative growth


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But a forecast is still a forecast,... the actuals may come out better,... or worse too,... Banks,.. they just need to life their interest rates a bit, and the profit would flow back in again. A rising interest rate environment would bode them well, incl BOQ.
I wonder if interest rates start to rise in the states, would this translate into interest rates rises here too,..

 

[Quant]

But a forecast is still a forecast,... the actuals may come out better,... or worse too,... Banks,.. they just need to life their interest rates a bit, and the profit would flow back in again. A rising interest rate environment would bode them well, incl BOQ.
I wonder if interest rates start to rise in the states, would this translate into interest rates rises here too,..

We going in circles , ive given you info , you do what you want with it , im not debating anything , if you have doubts pursue proffessional help , they will have the same info i do > its possible to find data on how companies actual report in relationships to forecasts , i have it . THERE are NO guarenteees in this business ... Govt bonds have no risk , maybe thats the right product for you ... good luck


Forecasts are the average of a number of estimates and they are predominantly a wide range , in my experience on large caps they are fairly close to the mark

last edit , short dated bank interest futures arent pricing a rate change in australia during 2017 at this stage

 

[WRiley]

View attachment 69638 View attachment 69637
We going in circles , ive given you info , you do what you want with it , im not debating anything , if you have doubts pursue proffessional help , they will have the same info i do > its possible to find data on how companies actual report in relationships to forecasts , i have it . THERE are NO guarenteees in this business ... Govt bonds have no risk , maybe thats the right product for you ... good luck


Forecasts are the average of a number of estimates and they are predominantly a wide range , in my experience on large caps they are fairly close to the mark

last edit , short dated bank interest futures arent pricing a rate change in australia during 2017 at this stage

OK,... tq Quant,... I appreciated your input very much.

 

[WRiley]

The day has come,... Trump Pump is fading,... US Financials dropped last night,... but Aussie Financials are still holding,...BOQ is due to report on the coming Thursday morning...any guesses on its performance in the last 6 months ?

 

[Quant]

Risk is Div dropping , nothing has really changed since the figures a couple months back , it did the full 10% and change retrace and still below this years high . Id suggest small upside potential unless an unexpected beat , Div is still desirable with gross yield close to 10% . I must admit havent been watching but low 11's was a SMSF candidate for an up to 8 week hold . Be skinny returns but 10% in 8 weeks isnt to be sneezed at ... all my ideas/opinions are in a swing trade theme and short term , i invest in nothing but my skills and knowledge , I am a Mercenary ;-)

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Looking for a target of 12.08-12.13 in next 2 days.

 

[WRiley]

Risk is Div dropping , nothing has really changed since the figures a couple months back , it did the full 10% and change retrace and still below this years high . Id suggest small upside potential unless an unexpected beat , Div is still desirable with gross yield close to 10% . I must admit havent been watching but low 11's was a SMSF candidate for an up to 8 week hold . Be skinny returns but 10% in 8 weeks isnt to be sneezed at ... all my ideas/opinions are in a swing trade theme and short term , i invest in nothing but my skills and knowledge , I am a Mercenary ;-)

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Tq Quant,... let us check together come Thursday and we will be able to understand a whole lot more abt BOQ after this,...

 

[ukulele]

Just looking quickly, not a great result with both cash earnings and profit down on the same period last year. Div remains at 38cents. But "positive outlook". I am not sure what the analysts were expecting though.

 

[skc]

Just looking quickly, not a great result with both cash earnings and profit down on the same period last year. Div remains at 38cents. But "positive outlook". I am not sure what the analysts were expecting though.

Tiny miss to roughly in line with expectations.

 

[WRiley]

Tq Quant,... let us check together come Thursday and we will be able to understand a whole lot more abt BOQ after this,...

Comparing across the preview and the actual results that came out today, looks like the actuals are all more negative vs the preview, except for the dividend payout, which the preview predicted accurately !

I do hope there will be growth to be reported soon in the FY reporting later,... from the following statements :-

1) "We have seen a 30% uplift in mortgage application volumes in recent weeks which gives us confidence of a return to growth in the second half," Mr Sutton said.
2) "Throughout the rest of the year our focus will remain on BOQ’s growth prospects in niche customer segments and asset quality which we believe will drive more sustainable profits longer term.

NO more flat earnings,.. I hope,..

 

[JTLP]

Comparing across the preview and the actual results that came out today, looks like the actuals are all more negative vs the preview, except for the dividend payout, which the preview predicted accurately !

I do hope there will be growth to be reported soon in the FY reporting later,... from the following statements :-

1) "We have seen a 30% uplift in mortgage application volumes in recent weeks which gives us confidence of a return to growth in the second half," Mr Sutton said.
2) "Throughout the rest of the year our focus will remain on BOQ’s growth prospects in niche customer segments and asset quality which we believe will drive more sustainable profits longer term.

NO more flat earnings,.. I hope,..

I find the idea of targeting niche segments risky. You're playing with a smaller kettle of fish and if it doesn't come off, then what?

Seems like a superfluous statement to fill the report on how they'd like to "grow"...

 

[WRiley]

I find the idea of targeting niche segments risky. You're playing with a smaller kettle of fish and if it doesn't come off, then what?

Seems like a superfluous statement to fill the report on how they'd like to "grow"...

Well,... like everybody else, they're thinking since they're strong in this arena, they hoped to create this need in the mktplace, after which they will use their skills to grab mktchare before the other banks catch-up. It's a natural business instinct !

 

[Boggo]

This seems to be still pushing slowly in the right direction.
Two target areas on the daily chart below, at the current rate of progress its going to take a while to the $15 area.
My weekly breakout system happened to coincide with the break of (b) on the chart.

(I am long on BOQIOZ)

BOQ Daily EW.

 

[WRiley]

Could be resultant price action as we head towards the Preliminary Ann Report coming out on Thursday, October 5th.. two weeks from now.

 

[tinhat]

I bought some BOQ today - main reason for choosing BOQ is that I am already overweight NAB. Both these banks have a very high payout ratio. BOQ is about 82% of earnings! Gross yield at my buy price is 10.5%. Off course there is a risk that divi may need to be cut, especially if they don't realise increased capital reserves through selling off St. Andrew's Life division to Freedom Insurance Group as planned. and if earnings get hit through economic downturn.

It goes ex-div in nine days and expect the price to drop below $10 in the short term.

I've always treated bank stocks as a superior yielding investment over fixed interest and have never (yet) regretted buying a bank stock.

 

[JTLP]

I bought some BOQ today - main reason for choosing BOQ is that I am already overweight NAB. Both these banks have a very high payout ratio. BOQ is about 82% of earnings! Gross yield at my buy price is 10.5%. Off course there is a risk that divi may need to be cut, especially if they don't realise increased capital reserves through selling off St. Andrew's Life division to Freedom Insurance Group as planned. and if earnings get hit through economic downturn.

It goes ex-div in nine days and expect the price to drop below $10 in the short term.

I've always treated bank stocks as a superior yielding investment over fixed interest and have never (yet) regretted buying a bank stock.

Even if the dividend drops 30% (think capital preservation), that’s still a yield of 7.2%. The real watch out will be slowing revenue / over exposure to QLD resi.

 

[PZ99]

BOQ profit down 8% year on year and divvy cut to 34c

Down 4.5% to $9.00 - which is where they were after the profit warning.