BNB - Babcock & Brown

[barnz2k]

down almost 10% over the last week. might be good time to get in.
see what spare change I can find..

(while thinking I should not buy shares before moving to london without a job but also not caring so much lol)

 

[Kravis]

great thread.
I am also a long term holder of bnb. I got in at the float and havnt looked back or sold since.
Phil and his team are first class and i wouldnt sell this stock when there is so much talent at bnb. Remember MBL back in 2000/01 was trading at 21-22 at the time of the Sydney Airport takeover and Alan Jones saga. The perception of the public kept the stock steady.
I believe the same thing is happening at bnb. They just took over Alinta! Look at the assets they hold, predominately energy. These assets are core and pure.
Let this market hype pass and ignore sentiment. If you have spare change continue to top up sensibly.

 

[barnz2k]

Noticed yesterday there was always huge volume.
Just people scared by the falling price and similar concerns with mbl?
However BNBs ann suggested they have an insignificant part in it and should not be affected in the same way.

I think I will try and get in today or tonight when I can sort some cash out.

 

[barnz2k]

Well hopefully this is the bottom cause im in now
Was hoping for just a slight increase today but down slightly.
See how things go monday morning!

 

[Lachlan6]

What started this fall was quite possibly the nastiest of divergences in the OBV. This is such a clear sign that the insto's are heading for the door, for whatever reason to switch elsewhere. It occured on the three seperate highs in May and June, which led to BNB getting severly punished. It has capitulated now to a support level which may hold it up in the interim and dont be surprised to see a small bounce from here. The other interesting thing about this level, is it is exactly the 50% retracement level from the similar capitualtion in 2005.

However surely the long term picture is still rosy at BNB, just look at the projected profits. So although the short term doesnt look amazing (apart from a likely bounce) if there is a reversal around these levels, it may be a good low risk entry point for a long term hold.

 

[barnz2k]

Another dollar or 4.11% down today. 15% in one week!
Volume picked up again today also to 4mil.
But again, its along with the rest. Be an interesting week!

 

[DOC]

hi,
i was lucky enough to get in at IPO for $5 and sold at around $15. thnks trcom.
But currently hovering around again with the rest of the vultures for another buy oppertunity. looks like support around $25, but with tonights news from the US:

<Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, halted withdrawals from three investment funds because it couldn't ``fairly'' value their holdings after U.S. subprime mortgage losses roiled credit markets.
The funds had about 1.6 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of assets on Aug. 7, after declining 20 percent in less than two weeks, spokesman Jonathan Mullen said today. The bank will stop calculating a net asset value for the funds, which have about a third of their money in subprime securities rated AA or higher. >

looks like i'll fly around a few more times before jumping in.

still a great stock with good core values, management, and future earnings.

cheers,
Doc

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE FROM A QUALIFIED PERSON. NOT ME!

 

[DOC]

Come to think of it, i'm better off buying shares in Mcdonalds (MCD). they are the only thing thats up on the US market at $51 and at around 52 week highs.
Man I should have known those burgers would turn out to be good for you somehow!
Seriously, I know we are not looking at US stocks, but this ones got some merit!

Bring back the hamburglar and grimas!

cheers,
Doc

 

[kerosam]

with the DOW down early, i think BNB might take a hit when they open. tomm... using incredible chart, its touching the low of its long term uptrend (5th May 2005)... support is $24.90.

comments? first time commenting on a chart. be gentle.

 

[BIG BWACULL]

with the DOW down early, i think BNB might take a hit when they open. tomm... using incredible chart, its touching the low of its long term uptrend (5th May 2005)... support is $24.90.

comments? first time commenting on a chart. be gentle.

Personally the dow being down will give us all a punch in the face AGAIN But im in the marathon and not a sprinter so,
Oh well Bye Now :hide:

 

[barnz2k]

Personally the dow being down will give us all a punch in the face AGAIN But im in the marathon and not a sprinter so,
Oh well Bye Now :hide:

Down 6.8% now, But as BBW says, im in it for longer term and I think once all this gets sorted out bnb will continue uptrend. and BNB stated last week they have insignificant exposure relating to sub prime market issue.

 

[golfmos123]

Good time to go long (ish) on BNB INMO. Have jumped in today for a big lick of stock (for me!) under $24, just can't see it falling much further unless the DOW has another coronary shortly. Don't forget this stock has been in the $34's only a couple of months back and little has changed with fundamentals. Alinta takeover news will of course help.

I'm in it to try to make a relatively easy 10-15% in just a few weeks and gracefully (and gratefully) exit again. I just don't think this can go wrong short term from $24 or long term either for that matter, it is just too good a business.

Am I too bullish here????

 

[nomore4s]

Good time to go long (ish) on BNB INMO. Have jumped in today for a big lick of stock (for me!) under $24, just can't see it falling much further unless the DOW has another coronary shortly. Don't forget this stock has been in the $34's only a couple of months back and little has changed with fundamentals. Alinta takeover news will of course help.

I'm in it to try to make a relatively easy 10-15% in just a few weeks and gracefully (and gratefully) exit again. I just don't think this can go wrong short term from $24 or long term either for that matter, it is just too good a business.

Am I too bullish here????

You're a lot gamer than I am thats for sure, with the financial sector copping a hiding lately (not just here but in overseas markets as well) there could be alot more downside to come yet.
The FTSE is currently down 3% and the Dow looks like opening another 100 points down, so Monday might not be a good day for us either.

There seems to be a bit of panic in the world markets atm, which means no matter how good the fundamentals are the price could drop. Also maybe $34 was overpriced? (not saying it was or wasn't just asking the question)

Good luck with your trade.

 

[reece55]

Good time to go long (ish) on BNB INMO. Have jumped in today for a big lick of stock (for me!) under $24, just can't see it falling much further unless the DOW has another coronary shortly. Don't forget this stock has been in the $34's only a couple of months back and little has changed with fundamentals. Alinta takeover news will of course help.

I'm in it to try to make a relatively easy 10-15% in just a few weeks and gracefully (and gratefully) exit again. I just don't think this can go wrong short term from $24 or long term either for that matter, it is just too good a business.

Am I too bullish here????

Golf,
You could equally say that BNB was a $5 float some 2.5 years ago, so why shouldn't it go back to $15????

Investment Bank + Liquidity crisis = losing money on investment.

Just my 2 cents though.....

Cheers

 

[Kravis]

Fear is a powerful dictator during times of exeburence.
We must remember Babcock and Brown have been around along time, since 1977. We must remember that they have a superior management team run by the best mind in the financial game (Phil Green). We must remember that they are continuously (and yes during these 'sub prime' times) buying quality assets (Alinta/Portuguese toll roads).

The bigger long term picture is better to envisage rather than the short term squiggly line that the charts produce. This is a business that owns and operates quality assets run by high calibre people who have their net worth in the business. Running with the herd short term is the easy option. Standing away from it and cutting out the noise is hard to do, but essential during these times especially for the long term quality businesses.

 

[Boggo]

My worth, its gotta be near the bottom (didn't someone say that earlier )

Big sellers and big buyers, obviously two opposing views of what its worth.

Mike

 

[tcoates]

As indicated in the eureka report today (?) fundamentals don't count for much a the moment - there appears to be a mass exodus. And companies cant put out statements like 'business is fine - same as yesterday' each day.

Tim

 

[Kravis]

"And companies cant put out statements like 'business is fine - same as yesterday' each day."

Why not?
Irrational selling is exactly what is needed to buy into companies that have sound management are profitable and great continued growth for the long term. The whole point is to be greedy when others are fearful but the hard part is determining when to ignore the herd and buy and hold quality.

 

[vishalt]

i cant believe it, just months ago i was looking at BNB at $32 and saying "i shouldve just held on to it when it was consolidating at $19, SILLY ME!" - and its almost back lol.

i've been following these guys for ages - and as another poster mentioned - BNB management are very good and experienced, and that was proven when they beat superpower Macquarie Bank for Allinta.

im accumulating these will all come back even if itll take several months.

next stop $18 and then the drops stop (i hope)

 

[hacheln_mice]

"And companies cant put out statements like 'business is fine - same as yesterday' each day."

Why not?
Irrational selling is exactly what is needed to buy into companies that have sound management are profitable and great continued growth for the long term. The whole point is to be greedy when others are fearful but the hard part is determining when to ignore the herd and buy and hold quality.

--------------
You are right, BUT there is no need to try and be a hero by stepping in front of a freight train. It's better to be a little late than a little early in this sort of environment. The next fib retracement support should be at 18.7.