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BNB - Babcock & Brown

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Re: Babcock & Brown (BNB)

BNB has been lolling around $17 over the holiday break. Last week it had a bit of a spurt up to around $17.50.

BNB's reporting period ended 31 December, with the result probably due around February - anyone have any technical analysis suggesting a break out pattern will form?
 
Re: Babcock & Brown (BNB)

waytogo said:
BNB has been lolling around $17 over the holiday break. Last week it had a bit of a spurt up to around $17.50.

BNB's reporting period ended 31 December, with the result probably due around February - anyone have any technical analysis suggesting a break out pattern will form?
Click to expand...

BNB dropped a bit today, maybe the below

Date: 4/8/2006
Author: Robert Clow
Source: The Australian --- Page: 29
Babcock's wind farms in Spain, Germany and Lake Bonney have generated $A10m less revenue than forecast. $A9m were due to delays in its acquisition of three Spanish farms. The rest was caused by winds blowing at just 58% and 92% of the average speed. Babcock also has several US wind farms. The company's share price closed $A0.02 lower at $A1.45 and its EBITDA is expected to fall to $A51.5m, from its previous forecast of $A62.2m

Date: 11/7/2006
Author: Helena Keers
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 23
Investors have sold down the shares of some renewable energy groups in the last six months. However, a number of analysts remain bullish about the sector. Babcock & Brown Wind Partners (B&B Wind) closed at $A1.56 on 10 July 2006, after peaking at $A1.93 in January, while Viridis Clean Energy Group's shares closed at $A0.88, compared with a high of $A1.12 in September 2005. Deutsche Bank has a target price of $A2 on B&B Wind shares, while ABN Amro has a target price of $A1.17 for Viridis stock
Click to expand...

thx

MS
 
Broke through resistance at $20.50 on heavy volume yesterday after a period of consolidation. Is up more then 2% today on a gap. Look for it to test long term resistance at $22.00. And its about time!
 
Anyone got on any ideas about this one? I've held a few for a little over a year and don't intend selling in the near future as I tend to hold long term.

Having said that, that can obviously be fatal to profits as I've found out a few to many times. :rolleyes:
 
This was sent yesterday...

80100.png


BOTTOM LINE
11/10:
EW Trend: Corrective (?)
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Strong BUY
20/9:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Strong BUY

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
11/10:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 58 secs)
Today's 4% surge, high close and high volume put my "want" of a continued dip well out of the picture. Whilst it's technically still possible, its now, more or less, improbable. Whilst we have seen high volume days before, the price relationship shown today is nothing short of very bullish. It's extremely probable that the BNB trend will now resume after its 4-month pause and that new high is close by. I would expect the immediate targets are just through $24.00, but the larger targets extend well beyond that should we see continuing signs of bullish behaviour. On the flipside, any failure and subsequent break back below the late September lows of $19.22 would suggest the original weakness is back in favour.
20/9:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 40 secs)
Prices continue to meander and I still think they'll travel a touch lower before resuming the upward trend. I note with interest that the Brokers have moved their rating to the highest level of Strong BUY. Whilst this does fit the larger bullish picture I've been preaching for some time, its only appropriate so long as $15.75 is not broken (yes, $15.75 is a long way off). Today's weakness does reinforce my thinking that we'll trade lower over the coming weeks so if you are interested in BNB, I believe better levels will become available shortly. The lower $18.00 area should now offer very strong support and I would expect prices to reverse from those levels and move higher.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
11/10:
The June highs had been labelled at wave-(i) or -5. Continuing with the impulsive theme, the pattern since then can only be a nested impulse. The reason is that wave-(ii)'s cannot be resolved in the form of a triangle. Therefore, the August lows are deemed a wave-(ii) and we're now sub-dividing higher in a new structure whereby today takes the shape of a wave-iii. Following this smaller structure, the wave-iii target is $22.00 and the wave-v is a little over $24.00. The June 30 highs were $22.00 so the termination of wave-iii should be anticipated as weaker hands take profits. Bullish.
20/9:
The corrective pattern continues to take shape, slowly but surely. The wave-c/wave-a equilibrium is at $17.35 which is just a touch lower than a support band running back to earlier this year. Even so, this "general" area will offer support and we should expect the wave-(ii) to terminate in that region. If that in fact does occur, then the upside potential for BNB is very large. One thing at a time, so look for that weakness over the coming weeks, then look for evidence of a turn higher into wave-iii. The main reason why I think prices will travel lower at present is because the area between wave-a and -b was choppy in nature and not impulsive. That activity suggests corrective movement and as we know, wave-b is a corrective wave.


This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
 
Wow. There seems to be no stopping these guys. About to float a power fund, finished raising 300million pounds for an infrastructure fund in europe and are part of a consortium that won the 3.6 billion dollar contract to supply trains in NSW. This all in the last couple of weeks. At the rate their going they'll be calling Macquarie a mini Babcock and Brown.
 
your sure right, been holding this for over a yr now, anyone lucky enough to get into this one during their llisting on ASX for $5 per share, a while back?
 
yeah i've been holding since they were $11. definitely a long term play. Can't imagine what these will be worth 5 years from now.
 
billhill said:
Wow. There seems to be no stopping these guys. About to float a power fund, finished raising 300million pounds for an infrastructure fund in europe and are part of a consortium that won the 3.6 billion dollar contract to supply trains in NSW. This all in the last couple of weeks. At the rate their going they'll be calling Macquarie a mini Babcock and Brown.
Click to expand...

dont forget AFG and MFS!

thx

MS
 
Another day and the anouncement of another fund. This time in singapore. This company is truly turning into a global force in investment banks.
 
i think it's following MBL's lead, good market sentiment for investment banks atm. it funny that so far, you and i are the only people commenting on this great stock. ;)
 
Yeah i know. Everyone is so crazy about mining stocks they seem to ignore every other sector. Oh well when the mining boom finishes we'll make all the gains because of our clever positioning in sound good stocks with real not speculative potential.
 
I don't have much else to say but WOO HOOOOO!!!!! :D

As I said in an earlier post, bought a little over a year ago and up 40%+ after today. Not as spectacular as some mining stocks but I feel comfortable with them. I'm also thinking about doubling my position as I'll hate it if it does do as well as MBL over the next few years and I haven't got a bigger chunk. It must be the greed thing again. :p:

They seem to have good management that have a proven track record, a good return on equity for the little info they have on them at this stage and being global, have good growth prospects.

But then, I don't know much and am just along for the ride. :cool:
 
sleeper88 said:
i think it's following MBL's lead, good market sentiment for investment banks atm. it funny that so far, you and i are the only people commenting on this great stock. ;)
Click to expand...

hey i hold BNB at $13!

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 110.2 20.8 43.1%
Year Ending 30-12-07 132.8 17.3 20.5%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2009
EPS 77.0 110.2 132.8 155.0
DPS 23.0 34.3 42.2 50.0

thx

MS
 
Well done Sultan. Nothng feels better than getting that moves smoothly. Here are my comments from a week or two ago...



BOTTOM LINE
8/11:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Strong BUY
27/10:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Strong BUY

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
8/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 30 secs)
We didn't get to see the micro triangle form but the dip was spot on a typical decline at this stage of the trend. We've now surpassed those recent highs as BNB puts on 6% in just a few days. We should continue higher for a brief week or so, possibly as far as $24.50 before we get a reasonable corrective movement. A nimble trader looking for a quick move could buy on a break of today's high but must keep close tabs on any weakness entering. The general market is showing some signs of a dip and with BNB hitting these highs for the 3rd time there is a chance of failure. I also note the small gap left from yesterdays strength which in theory should be filled with a reasonable level of probability. The weekly chart looks great, especially if this week can close firm.
27/10:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 56 secs)
I hinted at new highs several weeks ago and we've now got them, but I feel there is certainly more upside yet. I have indicated on the chart that we may see a quick dip next week to complete a micro triangle, but volume/price relationship today was very strong so I'm not sure if we'll get that dip just yet. As discussed in the last review, the next immediate leg higher could see prices push through to $24.50 before a reasonable corrective move, but even then, any declines should be short lived. At this rate we could continue all the way to $27.00, quite possibly more. Yet again we see a classic example of a possible micro triangle forming at an old high. Time and again this occurs as weaker hands can resist but take profits. It gives the market pause before moving higher, but it also offers a low risk entry point. Watch for the completion of the triangle this coming week and expect a quick surge higher.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
8/11:
The wave-iv correction has completed in a 3-wave movement and bounced off the 38.2% retracement level. I think it says a lot when the stock shows strength on a negative day and a day when interest rates have risen. BNB is usually susceptible to interest rates because of its exposure to infrastructure. all in all, today was more positive than perhaps what is shown via price action. The 61.8x wave-iii targets $24.50 and showing some confluence is the 61.8x the larger degree wave-1 target at $24.00. Remember that the 61.8x wave-1 is the area I look for as the wave-3 terminal point. I am more conservative than most, but it's a good sign of proportion when different waves show similar targets.
27/10:
The pause here at the old highs suggests a minor degree wave-iv triangle is under construction. Today did show solid buying interest so we'll need a down night tonight in the US to see this pattern complete. A positive lead from the US tonight will simply see prices shoot higher without the triangle completing. Today shows a high close on reasonably good volume. This during general market weakness today is a very good sign for the bullish outlook, so the completion of the triangle will hinge on the US tonight. The minor degree targets of 61.8x wave-i suggest $24.50. The equidistant wave-i/-v relationship occurs at $22.73 assuming the pivot low this week was wave-iv. Bullish.
 
Seems to be a bit suspect at the moment - ann coming?? Maybe. Jumped over 70c although slipping back.

May end up being a good decision to cover...
 

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