In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.
However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely, by complete chance and many are fooled by chance to believe they posses great skill. But when black Swan events hit the chaff are separated from the wheat, and only the skilled survive. You accuse me of lies I do not care one way or another but you can not prove to me your success is anything more than chance till a couple of disasters strike, or you are still making profits after about 25 years, at least triple your money, because anyone can meet the market average and inflation by no skill just buying and holding, the market rate is say 3% now you should do at least 5% a year and in 14 years you should have double your capital, by 25 years you should have almost tripled your capital. Now you have been convinced you are a genius because you have ridden the crest of two notorious bubbles that blind freddy can see, but that is not the point ,where will you be after 25 years with a few black swans thrown in ? Frankly I could not care less you are so cocky and arrogant, whatever , good luck, it is the suckers you are trying to rope in on your merry go round that I worry about I regret having put some of my trading methods because you think I am trying to prove something or competing, I have no wish for anyone to use my trading methods or to buy any share or option I buy or sell, except out of mere coincidence and random chance and their own deliberate uninfluenced choice. I am not trying to muscle in and sell some snake oil and tell people its better than yours, in fact most people would lose money trading my way, because it is only low risk with years of knowledge experience and practical trading, you have had to have had skin in the game a long time to trade like I do, I don't wish it on anyone. But for me it's a winner.