Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading thread

[brty]

I am not going to justify or prove anything to you

Of course not, I never expected you to, they never do.

I have never claimed trading to be easy, just simple. There are always risks involved and these must be managed.
It is the same for bitcoin as for everything else.

You have claimed
" I have devised a really good solid buy and hold portfolio strategy for mums and dads for their retirement"
plus...
" I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this"

Hence why I claimed BS, your answer...
" I am not trying to convince anyone about what I do or anything else I am not obsessive or bragging merely stating facts"

It certainly does not sound like it to me.
On these forums a person builds credibility over time, not by making big statements over a couple of days.
I still call BS on your comments.

 

[tech/a]

Waste of breath brty

Cassandras think you SHOULD want what they THINK they have
The secret of everything.

Seriously putting a book out on Kindle----please.
You have the secret of everything and now your talking pennies.
Im with brty---fake Cassandra
AH! just noted we are taking a bashing from a self confessed (I'm not a wealthy man)
Who plays guitar and enjoys long walks along the beach.

No one's suggesting anyone put their house on Cryptos.
Its the next REALLY big thing AND its NOT going away---ignore it. Most people will.
Like you they are crippled by fear hence your option hedge trading methodology.
Works ----- but in the world of business---Vanilla.

Oh and for a fledgling Duck (Nee Gecko) can you just point out all the losers in this ZERO SUM game
on this chart for me please.
Just cant seem to find them?

Pretty well one way traffic.

Short it !---if its the biggest bubble since Tulips.

Personally I think its here to stay.
Crypto currency is here to stay.
Once Govs work out how to rape it.

 

[qldfrog]

I guess you should think some more, you have cherry picked with hindsight. If you keeep gambling we know what happens eventually - you end up with no money.

I really wonder why we have gambling threads on what is purportedly an investing forum!

why would gambling end up losing your money? as opposed to the lottery/casino, no one is taking a 30% cut so what your loses are are what someone else win;
A bit like the ASX but without CEO paying his new lamborghini from your shares;
By many aspect, BTC is far less of a gamble than the ASX today!!!Oe an AUD bank account figures on your netbank screen
my opinion only, and not heavily into BTC or crypto

 

[tech/a]

Personally I like Ripple
It’s got a lot going for it
Great technology and the instos read pretty good plus lots more easy to find
Have a read.
It’s around $1

BTC
Have a back log of new clients currently over a week to get ID cleared

So currently the duck has 10000
Plus other holdings with the geeks.

Worst that can happen Zero
$5 happy
$50 very happy
$500 the entire duck clan is happy
$1000 everyone at ASF is happy because the Ducks throwing one hell of a party!

Gambling ?
Recognising opportunity and doing something about it ?


Take your pick

 

[skyQuake]

It is a simple equation there is no derivatives market on bitcoins no way to hedge, for every buyer there has to be a seller, and every buyer has to sell to to realise his gain, so you see at any point in time it is either heads or tails who wins .

Why would anyone need to hedge by doing anything other than selling the bitcoins they already own?

Yes you may end up richer than Gordon gecko, but you fail to understand in bitcoin like all markets there is only a small fraction of big winners and by their psychological nature these speculators continue their pattern of behaviour, and the law of large numbers, states if they continue to play the odds get greater that at any point in time they will be losers too,

The vast majority of bitcoin players are vastly in profit. The Winklevoss twins made about a billion from bitcoins. Who lost that billion hmm?

read Nassim Nicholas Talebs, foooled by randomness, and the black swan, for explicit descriptions of such players. I did not make the comment about the cassandra complex, I had to look up what it was on wikipedia, it is neither here there to me, I am just trying to provide some rational guidance to those who are not knowledgeable about investment to stop them being lemings over the cliff blindly following others , I am not obsessive there are a lot of people smarter than me, or if not smart blessed with incredible good luck, I can explain this with rudimentary undergraduate statististical coin tossing experiments, but I would lose people, here people feel the thrill of being rich beyond there wildest fantasies, everyone who has had a sexual fantasy knows they rarely ever come true.

Surprised you mention Taleb.
Perhaps go back to the chapter on Green Lumber. And the Barbell investing strategy.

 

[lone ranger]

Of course not, I never expected you to, they never do.

I have never claimed trading to be easy, just simple. There are always risks involved and these must be managed.
It is the same for bitcoin as for everything else.

You have claimed
" I have devised a really good solid buy and hold portfolio strategy for mums and dads for their retirement"
plus...
" I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this"

Hence why I claimed BS, your answer...
" I am not trying to convince anyone about what I do or anything else I am not obsessive or bragging merely stating facts"

It certainly does not sound like it to me.
On these forums a person builds credibility over time, not by making big statements over a couple of days.
I still call BS on your comments.

No it is not lies it is simply selling iron condors, ratio writes, calendar spreads , poor mans covered calls, vertical spreads, they are basic and as old as the hills, you show such huge ignorance of the market and trading generally people like you are exasperating and frankly I am not here to teach you how to trade go learn yourself, and it is futile to try and justify because you are so ignorant you don't understand simple things eg, shorting is not hedging it is simply plain vanilla trading as I pointed out earlier when I described simple trading as buying low selling high and selling high and buying low the opposite which is known as shorting, there you go know you know. shorting is only hedging when combined with derivatives, or synthetic derivatives like tradeable bonds, also merely buying when combined with derivatives can also be hedging. And as for your mad hasty google search to find bitcoin futures, to say nah nah nanah nah, I told you so, there is more than the mere existence of a future or option to make it an effective hedging device, such as liquidity, and hence the width of spreads and strikes, and whether they have enough delta gamma and vega to afford the necessary cover, for an effective hedge, I am not interested in finding out because I am not interested in bitcoin, I am here to protect people coming here finding misinformation in their madness of crowds and herd behavior that is happening, people like you bought a long time ago so you are happy to rope in as many suckers as you like as it steadily climbs towards boiling point You are playing the oldest snake oil con there is talk it up and get out. I am not here for credibility or for any other reason than to warn people, all your fellow traders on this site are technical junkies and are complete believers in this stuff, I have no truck with them their eyes are wide open and they are considered professional traders, good luck to them, I am glad they exist technical traders are noise traders without a majority of them on the stock market I could not make any money, may they go forth and multiply and never end like the Jesus fishes and loaves trick.

 

[lone ranger]

Why would anyone need to hedge by doing anything other than selling the bitcoins they already own?


The vast majority of bitcoin players are vastly in profit. The Winklevoss twins made about a billion from bitcoins. Who lost that billion hmm?


Surprised you mention Taleb.
Perhaps go back to the chapter on Green Lumber. And the Barbell investing strategy.

In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.
However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely, by complete chance and many are fooled by chance to believe they posses great skill. But when black Swan events hit the chaff are separated from the wheat, and only the skilled survive. You accuse me of lies I do not care one way or another but you can not prove to me your success is anything more than chance till a couple of disasters strike, or you are still making profits after about 25 years, at least triple your money, because anyone can meet the market average and inflation by no skill just buying and holding, the market rate is say 3% now you should do at least 5% a year and in 14 years you should have double your capital, by 25 years you should have almost tripled your capital. Now you have been convinced you are a genius because you have ridden the crest of two notorious bubbles that blind freddy can see, but that is not the point ,where will you be after 25 years with a few black swans thrown in ? Frankly I could not care less you are so cocky and arrogant, whatever , good luck, it is the suckers you are trying to rope in on your merry go round that I worry about I regret having put some of my trading methods because you think I am trying to prove something or competing, I have no wish for anyone to use my trading methods or to buy any share or option I buy or sell, except out of mere coincidence and random chance and their own deliberate uninfluenced choice. I am not trying to muscle in and sell some snake oil and tell people its better than yours, in fact most people would lose money trading my way, because it is only low risk with years of knowledge experience and practical trading, you have had to have had skin in the game a long time to trade like I do, I don't wish it on anyone. But for me it's a winner.

 

[lone ranger]

In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.
However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely, by complete chance and many are fooled by chance to believe they posses great skill. But when black Swan events hit the chaff are separated from the wheat, and only the skilled survive. You accuse me of lies I do not care one way or another but you can not prove to me your success is anything more than chance till a couple of disasters strike, or you are still making profits after about 25 years, at least triple your money, because anyone can meet the market average and inflation by no skill just buying and holding, the market rate is say 3% now you should do at least 5% a year and in 14 years you should have double your capital, by 25 years you should have almost tripled your capital. Now you have been convinced you are a genius because you have ridden the crest of two notorious bubbles that blind freddy can see, but that is not the point ,where will you be after 25 years with a few black swans thrown in ? Frankly I could not care less you are so cocky and arrogant, whatever , good luck, it is the suckers you are trying to rope in on your merry go round that I worry about I regret having put some of my trading methods because you think I am trying to prove something or competing, I have no wish for anyone to use my trading methods or to buy any share or option I buy or sell, except out of mere coincidence and random chance and their own deliberate uninfluenced choice. I am not trying to muscle in and sell some snake oil and tell people its better than yours, in fact most people would lose money trading my way, because it is only low risk with years of knowledge experience and practical trading, you have had to have had skin in the game a long time to trade like I do, I don't wish it on anyone. But for me it's a winner.

Why are you going on with all this dross about the winkelvoss twins and bitcoin buyers are all up so are Dow Jones buyers and S&P 500 buyers up hugely it is a bull run you have not been around long enough to even understand what you are saying, every new inventor in a market makes money, the money makers on the Chicago options exchange make the winklevosses look amateur, you just go on with straw man arguments and non sequiturs, Just complete nonsense. You are like a small boy so excited by bitcoin you are wetting your pants. as they say its just another one , just like the other one, I have seen them all before , nothing special here that has not happened since 1987. Block chain is new and a new brilliant technology, but so are dozens of other software innovations in the last few years.

 

[tech/a]

The ignorant and uninformed resort to personal attack

It’s all they can muster
You’ve not left a single poster with a view even slightly at odds with yours off your list

Water off a ducks back

 

[notting]

LR aside.
I've only started arching up on bitcoin and co short over the last week or so as I see the shift and parabolic nature turning on the red light. As well as the brokers like IB and so on getting access and providing shorting opportunities. It is shortable now and it had the biggest fall last night that would have been far far worse as it tripped the wires

The Cboe bitcoin futures then fell 10 percent, briefly triggering a price halt, and settled more than 5 percent lower in their worst trading day since the launch. The futures had soared nearly 20 percent in their first day of trading. They were trading 7.5 percent higher at $18,060 late Friday morning.

I tend to agree with ducky on Ripple, being a more stable and possibly valuable product that may replace 'swift' that the banks have been using for decades. However it's not a store of value and I wouldn't be buying it here. I'd wait for the dot com like crash that may have started last night to settle and base then buy it when all the news papers and talking heads are shaking their heads at all the fools who bought in the last blast.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/13/jeffrey-gundlachs-view-on-bitcoin.html

 

[skyQuake]

In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.

You've missed the point. You dont even need to have any skill to make significant money in a positive sum boom like Bitcoin.

However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern.

The incorrect assumption here is that the instrument in question is 0 sum. Try again with an hypothetical where the asset goes up in leaps and bounds, and players can't short the insturment.

If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely...

What if its not a fair coin?
The real black swan here is on the UPSIDE which most people have completely missed. Sure it can drop 75% in a day, which would not be too surprising given the amount of speculative frenzy.
All it takes is a bid of rudimentary position sizing to negate this risk. Once again I refer to the barbell strategy.

Why are you going on with all this dross about the winkelvoss twins and bitcoin buyers are all up so are Dow Jones buyers and S&P 500 buyers up hugely it is a bull run you have not been around long enough to even understand what you are saying, every new inventor in a market makes money, the money makers on the Chicago options exchange make the winklevosses look amateur, you just go on with straw man arguments and non sequiturs, Just complete nonsense. You are like a small boy so excited by bitcoin you are wetting your pants. as they say its just another one , just like the other one, I have seen them all before , nothing special here that has not happened since 1987. Block chain is new and a new brilliant technology, but so are dozens of other software innovations in the last few years.

If you don't know what is zero sum and what isn't just say so.

 

[notting]

Get in on this one early guys, it's quite new so has heaps to go!!
https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/13/16754266/cryptokitties-ethereum-ether-game-cats

 

[kid hustlr]

Getting back in track

Having not been around long enough to genuinely experience proper bull and bear runs I'm interested as to where this ends. I feel generally that bull runs seem to last far longer than I expect which makes me feel there may be more to come? Price action still looks bullish to me also.

Noting the above the more I see threads about this stuff, media hype, my dad talking about, etc it I feel as though it could be nearing a pinch point? I do believe when it goes it will go v quickly.

Any thoughts or signs to look for from those who have seen this before?

 

[SuperGlue]

Anyone had any luck setting up a fundable acct in one of the big US exchanges?

In todays ABC News
"Coinbase is going to add altcoins, which experts say will make life easier for Aussie investors"

Alex Saunders gives a few tips on which exchange to use on his video clip.
Coinbase, sell not supported for Aussies.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-...-add-altcoins-to-its-platform-bitcoin/9261046

 

[brty]

No it is not lies it is simply selling iron condors, ratio writes, calendar spreads , poor mans covered calls, vertical spreads, they are basic and as old as the hills, you show such huge ignorance of the market and trading generally people like you are exasperating and frankly I am not here to teach you how to trade go learn yourself, and it is futile to try and justify because you are so ignorant you don't understand simple things eg,

LOL!!
brokerage and spreads galore, and you think that is good. LOL.

On the topic for a change, my SIL that has not a clue about markets asked me about Bitcoin today. This is a red flag for me as the only other investment she has ever made was buying Telstra at $9 totally against my advice, because her best friend told her to.
When the mania has reached the level of non investing people, there are not many suckers left.

kid hustlr, in the final run up of the gold and silver boom of Jan 1980, the TV news was full of people lined up SELLING gold and silver to different companies buying rings, coins etc. While the stories showed the people in the crowds lined up SELLING, they were actually all about some young people that had made fortunes (on paper) buying gold and silver futures.
I always found that fascinating how many people got the end of that mania correct, but the stories were about the others.

 

[KnowThePast]

I am with tech on this one - I bought a small position a few weeks back and trim it down regularly as the price goes up. No need to time the collapse in my case - the gamble was whether the collapse will be in the next few weeks.

brty, funny you mentioned a selling signal when general public start talking about it. This isn't quite the same though. Shares get traded by institutions, then general public takes an interest in them. With cryptos, it was the public and enthusiasts that started it. To me, the question is, if/when bigger funds will start investing in it. Should they do so, demand will increase massively (and probably accelerate the bursting of the bubble).

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm in the middle.

Yes I think there's a bubble which will eventually burst. Blockchain is valid certainly but I don't see how Bitcoin itself is worth the present price.

But I do think it's got a lot further to go in terms of absolute prices expressed in USD or other currencies. USD 50,000 probably, USD 100,000 possibly.

If it does go seriously high then any bust will have broader implications I expect. At USD 100,000 it would be worth about the same as all the oil used worldwide over 12 months and far more than any listed company anywhere. That's serious money by any measure such that any crash from that point would likely have broader implications.

 

[lusk]

brty, funny you mentioned a selling signal when general public start talking about it. This isn't quite the same though. Shares get traded by institutions, then general public takes an interest in them. With cryptos, it was the public and enthusiasts that started it. To me, the question is, if/when bigger funds will start investing in it. Should they do so, demand will increase massively (and probably accelerate the bursting of the bubble).

Yeah this time its different

I am going to call the top, mate just told me he was down the pub and friends were all talking about bitcoin etc and providing their investing advice. Surely that's a contrarian indicator.

 

[tech/a]

I'm sure it happened with the Industrial Revolution.

What Horses taken over by cars---Pffft
Ships taken over by Planes---yeh right.
Wars fought from Consoles---dreaming

Apple/Microsoft/Google/Facebook all flash in the pans destined for Huge falls.
DNA/Clouds---nothing here---

Crypto currencies people are talking ----Must be a top.
Crypto currencies people are talking----The masses are awakening.

10 yrs on ---Cash/Credit cards--remember them.

 

[notting]

What Horses taken over by cars---Pffft
Ships taken over by Planes---yeh right.
Wars fought from Consoles---dreaming

Your burning straw men.
No one, with a half a brain, is arguing about the functionality or future of block chain.
There are infinite products that could be floated into this environment until it becomes regulated.
There for the perceived supply constraints arn't!!!