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Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading thread

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This reply is not directed at anyone of the above comments as I have no interest in bitcoin, I trade options every morning about 4-6am AED for the US markets, and I drive uber about 5 hours a day for about 3 or 4 days a week, why is this relevant? Because The finest economic mind of the 20th century Maynard Keynes described when to sell before the great crash of 1929, "when bellhops and taxi drivers are talking about stocks it is time to sell", waiters and office workers all get in my uber and about 80% of the ones under 40 rant about bitcoin, time to get out quick, as a corollary to that Warren Buffet was asked how he got so rich;"by selling too early". Don't buy now you have missed the boat.
Bitcoin is also a game of hot potato, you can not use bit coin to buy practically anything useful apart from cocaine or pornography, so what is it's REAL value, its tulip-mania and the dotcom bubble all over again, if you buy do you know when its going to end, because it is,no.
Seriously, no mathematically sophisticated or rational person takes absolutely any notice of charts and technical trading, eg the most successful investors Warren Buffet, ed Thorpe, Jeff Simmons, these guys are quants, the stories about buffet and benjamin graham are bull****( he uses fundamentals but he is a full kelly quant trader). These guys can count there losses from their trading since the 60s and 70s on the fingers of one hand with a few missing! All the technical boys don't last 10 years they max out luck.
People with bitcoin fail to separate a major software engineering breakthrough, block chain, whoever has the patent would be worth billions but I think it open source that is incredible. From currency trading .
Block chain is incredibly valuable, bitcoin is virtually worth less, you can only realize real cash when you pass the hot potato the one left holding it gets burnt, you cant buy a Maserati with bitcoin, or a cup of coffee, it is only valuable on silk road, and the like. You cant convert bitcoins with your American express or cash them at the commonwealth bank, be very very afraid of bitcoin.
Just because there is a limit of 21 million does not make them rare that is arbitrary at any point the algorithm can be changed and another 21 million mined and so on, its a con. Seriously you can see people advertise on freelancer to hire Indian spaghetti code programmers to mine bitcoin for 2 rupees an hour seriously.
May the force be with you, and keep your underpants clean.
 
If it ends up very profitable it will be deemed a shrewd INVESTMENT

If it fails it will be deemed gambling----BY YOU

Me I see it as a quantified Risk and just another business capital venture

All our friends warned us of loosing everything in 2000 when we held 10 houses
and 2 commercial properties.
Sold the last one 2 yrs ago the rest freehold (4)---so I've heard it all before!

Haven't cherry picked anything
Back to Crypto's
Our spread or more to the point that chosen by the guys \(Geeky Quants)
Im backing on another project --- is as

I posted yesterday on the Bitcoin Brokers thread.


"Interestingly after some discussion today we have cashed out of all but Ripple
Bit cash and Ethereum. Looking for a top here and a fall soon and after Xmas."

But seriously if it drops 50% I really don't care nor do they.
But if it rises 5000% all of us WILL CARE. Oh its all up $20K--now.
1 X 10 and 2 X 5
 
tech/a said:
All our friends warned us of loosing everything in 2000 when we held 10 houses
and 2 commercial properties.
Click to expand...

Comparing cryptocurrency to a housing is unbelievably stupid.
No problem taking a punt on cryptos a couple of years back however, if you were up with the tech, not now!
 
I've been un believably stupid for quite a few years.
Look forward to many more.


notting said:
Comparing cryptocurrency to a housing is unbelievably stupid.
No problem taking a punt on cryptos a couple of years back however, if you were up with the tech, not now!
Click to expand...

As seen in this statement ABOVE----who's using hindsight???

I bought BIG at 6 c Sold at 11.5c
Watched as it rose to 50c bought again and sold for $1.50 ish

Watched again as it rose to $2.20 with my mouth open shaking my head
loudly protesting that this COULDNT go further!
Bought again $2.50 sold $3.40 ish
Watched as it Rose to $4 + again bleating how STUPID this was.
Now $3.44----How stupid was is stupid?

Happy for you to watch.
 
greggles said:
In a very real sense, all investing and trading is gambling. Even if you buy a blue chip for the long term, you are simply betting it will go up. You could be right, you could be wrong. Blue chips are simply the favourites while speccies are the long shots that pay out better. It's all still betting on an uncertain outcome. So, in the end it's just gambling. There are good gamblers and bad gamblers, just like there are good investors and bad investors.

Nothing wrong with having a punt. :D
Click to expand...
No you are wrong even with gambling some scientists like ed thorpe proved you could beat las vegas,yes not with luck but with skill and mathematics and intelligence. Read the book Beat the dealer by ed thorp ,don't get excited, since he published. the casinos all over the world have changed the rules of blackjack and baccarat so many times, the edge is so minute it is almost non existant. However horse racing is a rich and profitable area for many Economics and mathematics professors, Burton Malkiel of Random Walk down Wall Street fame, Princeton Professor, two of his students produced a book on the mathematics of horse racing, called the professors guide to racetrack betting, and Professor William Ziemba wrote a book called beat the racetrack where he devised a scientific method of getting a edge, not chance, his most famous student of racing was William Bentner who ran the most successful punting syndicate of all time in Hong Kong in the 80' netting billions, he had an Aussie partener who split to live in the Phillipines who was also incredibly successful, he bet by computerised account in Hong Kong. The guy that owns Mona in Tasmania was a professonal Quant punter, and I can go on and on , only a fool trusts luck.
Same with the sharemarket if you think that arbitrage begins and ends with buying low and selling high, or selling high and buying low and watching charts you are doomed on average to breaking even at best and matching inflation. If you understand quantitative methods and proper financial analysis, you can find dozens of real time profitable arbitrages, they are not easy to find or everyone would be rich, they are like looking for a needle in a haystack but an 80% or greater chance of payback or even better certainty, is like finding a gold mine, playing every day with no idea, is no better than guessing and technical trading is guessing. I am not letting the cat out of the bag but there is plenty of real stuff on real ways to make real money out there, it is neither respected in mainstream academia, or in Broking houses or big banks only the smartest private hedge fund operators know it. I do not think there is a single managed fund in all Australia that knows jack **** about anything.
Neither successfull punting or trading in the markets is gambling, it is investment science.
 
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lone ranger said:
No you are wrong even with gambling some scientists like ed thorpe proved you could beat las vegas,yes not with luck but with skill and mathematics and intelligence. Read the book Beat the dealer by ed thorp ,don't get excited, since he published. the casinos all over the world have changed the rules of blackjack and baccarat so many times, the edge is so minute it is almost non existant. However horse racing is a rich and profitable area for many Economics and mathematics professors, Burton Malkiel of Random Walk down Wall Street fame, Princeton Professor, two of his students produced a book on the mathematics of horse racing, called the professors guide to racetrack betting, and Professor William Ziemba wrote a book called beat the racetrack where he devised a scientific method of getting a edge, not chance, his most famous student of racing was William Bentner who ran the most successful punting syndicate of all time in Hong Kong in the 80' netting billions, he had an Aussie partener who split to live in the Phillipines who was also incredibly successful, he bet by computerised account in Hong Kong. The guy that owns Mona in Tasmania was a professonal Quant punter, and I can go on and on , only a fool trusts luck.
Same with the sharemarket if you think that arbitrage begins and ends with buying low and selling high, or selling high and buying low and watching charts you are doomed on average to breaking even at best and matching inflation. If you understand quantitative methods and proper financial analysis, you can find dozens of real time profitable arbitrages, they are not easy to find or everyone would be rich, they are like looking for a needle in a haystack but an 80% or greater chance of payback or even better certainty, is like finding a gold mine, playing every day with no idea, is no better than guessing and technical trading is guessing. I am not letting the cat out of the bag but there is plenty of real stuff on real ways to make real money out there, it is neither respected in mainstream academia, or in Broking houses or big banks only the smartest private hedge fund operators know it. I do not think there is a single managed fund in all Australia that knows jack **** about anything.
Neither successfull punting or trading in the markets is gambling, it is investment science.
Click to expand...
The difference between a lotto ticket with say 5 numbers in 69 is about 1 in 3 billion , you say but someone has to win , not necessarily the jackpot though most are minor or less prizes, and the chances are really ridiculous. In a horse race the odds seem great say 10 horses and 100/1 thats 10% chance, I am afraid not that is why people like you lose, and think long shots are great. The facts are of a sample of 9,000 races only 300 won with odds of 20/1 or greater, won if you continue to gamble on longshots even if you win you will lose, and lotto and lotteries are best bet on, by keeping your money in your wallet and investing wisely.
 
notting said:
Sorry when you said BIG I thought you were refering to your relative investment size!!!


Yes I know a BIG mistake.

Yes!!!! Unbelievably stupid. He hasn't left the casino yet!!!
Click to expand...

But he is walking around with the chips in his hand.
He has an opportunity none of us have. I like that stupid.
 
Hi guys sorry to barge in, which exchange do you people use? I have a nano s and I might be needing to do some changing soon. I prefer one that doesn't ask for your name and address. So in AU which is best? Thanks.
 
tech/a said:
As seen in this statement ABOVE----who's using hindsight???

I bought BIG at 6 c Sold at 11.5c
Watched as it rose to 50c bought again and sold for $1.50 ish

Watched again as it rose to $2.20 with my mouth open shaking my head
loudly protesting that this COULDNT go further!
Bought again $2.50 sold $3.40 ish
Watched as it Rose to $4 + again bleating how STUPID this was.
Now $3.44----How stupid was is stupid?

Happy for you to watch.
Click to expand...
This is representative of most traders. Not knowing where a price will go and taking profit when they 'think' so. Great hindsight examples and everyone has them. The option of holding a percentage of the original parcel at 6 cents to let run is also available.
 
In hindsight my trading of BIG in comparison to available return---was average.

But average has served me well.

I was just chatting to a friend who has lost a lot on a deal.

I said every day we are Genius or Moron.
Losses we feel like Morons and wins Geniuses.

Only participation gives us the opportunity to be one or the other.

Like the Wine salesmen sent to China to scout markets.
On their return

(1) Waste of time they don't drink wine!
(2) WOW they don't drink wine!

Many here are No 1s
 
I have been watching the Crypto markets for a while now (3 days) and i noticed that liquidity in the market is extremely thin... Watching the orderbook via btcmarkets.

Should a "run with your money" situation appears, I'd imagine that the plunge will transpire within minutes...

Another scary thing is friends with no financial knowledge are getting themselves into Cryptos and they are calling me everyday to ask me how to buy or sell a bitcoin, how to read a candle stick chart and the orderbook etc..

Scary when those individuals make up a significant portion of the market participants...

In saying that, if you had money you are willing to lose, I'm all for it to take a punt on cryptos!
 
tech/a said:
So this Stupid guy put his house on it for 85 Bit coins in October.
$510,000 AU now its worth $1.4 million

Another stupid person!
Click to expand...
Read the great crash by John Kenneth Gailbraith, huge sums were made overnight every day for years, only to disappear in a couple hours and worst economic depression hit for, 15 years if it was not for the second world war production may have never resumed and the stock market did not recover for over 25 years. Son you have a lot to learn about reality and life.
tech/a said:
So let’s think about that

Would you put down $ 1000 for a pie in the sky return of $ 50000 in 2 years
Or
Sit back and watch

If you’ve ever bought a lottery ticket your chances are way less!

Would you short it with the same $1000
In your quotes of oil , gold, property, etc , you have a biased sample.you are assuming returns are completely linear from Point a to point B straight up, a complete fallacy which shows complete mathematical ignorance, The prices Zig zag and timing is everything to get anywhere near these gains, in going from point A to point B there was enormous draw downs for all of these things, if you did not get the unknown absolutely right you would have been lucky to break even , returns on investment are not measured by annual capital growth rate, but general continuously compounding daily returns summed over the entire period, these were very volatile investments so they would have at best returned probably about 7-15%, their volatility would have been 20-30% or greater. their risk was great compared to returns.you could have gained the same returns by just buying and holding s&p 500 etf index SPY, equal returns of about 12-15% with volatility around 10% and sleep well and not jump around like a monkey in front of desk with a monitor screaming buy buy buy,sell sell sell, every five minutes, but basically that is how sociopathic gamblers get their jollies. I suggest you mortgage your his house and sell the shirt on your back to buy bitcoin and like your mate who doubled his money by selling house , keep on holding for the golden moment and don't get your money and run , you will be lining up at the salvation army soup kitchen for a meal clothes and accommodation, any day sooner or later, bitcoin is worth nothing till you turn it into real cash it is just paper money, like the value of a share till you sell it it really is worth nothing, just a estimated notional value, derived by the current market price.

Could bankrupt you!

How many sat back and watched the property boom
The AU$ rise from 50c to $1.10
Gold from $250 to $1700
Oil from $140 to $40
DJI 9000 to 24000
Tech boom

Grab the pop corn
Champers will always be too expensive.

Personally think the Risk is worth it.
E commerce will change but it’s here to stay
Keep your eyes peeled for other whacko ideas
Trust me there is plenty in the pipeline.
Click to expand...
tech/a said:
So let’s think about that

Would you put down $ 1000 for a pie in the sky return of $ 50000 in 2 years
Or
Sit back and watch

If you’ve ever bought a lottery ticket your chances are way less!

Would you short it with the same $1000

Could bankrupt you!

How many sat back and watched the property boom
The AU$ rise from 50c to $1.10
Gold from $250 to $1700
Oil from $140 to $40
DJI 9000 to 24000
Tech boom

Grab the pop corn
Champers will always be too expensive.

Personally think the Risk is worth it.
E commerce will change but it’s here to stay
Keep your eyes peeled for other whacko ideas
Trust me there is plenty in the pipeline.
Click to expand...
 
Rypieee said:
I have been watching the Crypto markets for a while now (3 days) and i noticed that liquidity in the market is extremely thin... Watching the orderbook via btcmarkets.

Should a "run with your money" situation appears, I'd imagine that the plunge will transpire within minutes...

Another scary thing is friends with no financial knowledge are getting themselves into Cryptos and they are calling me everyday to ask me how to buy or sell a bitcoin, how to read a candle stick chart and the orderbook etc..

Scary when those individuals make up a significant portion of the market participants...

In saying that, if you had money you are willing to lose, I'm all for it to take a punt on cryptos!
Click to expand...
I would not think being able to read candlestick chart charts, and any other technical indicator makes you a superior trader than someone with complete ignorance, you are in effect reading tea leaves from dirty cups and thinking you know something , real. And I don't think anyone, should bet any money on cryptos, if you want to gamble by a spdr index and hold, it pays dividends , is composed of real tangible physical assets, is not illegal, is not run by the Russian mafia mostly, and returns real returns, shooting stars fall to the earth very quickly.
 
lone ranger said:
I would not think being able to read candlestick chart charts, and any other technical indicator makes you a superior trader than someone with complete ignorance, you are in effect reading tea leaves from dirty cups and thinking you know something , real. And I don't think anyone, should bet any money on cryptos, if you want to gamble by a spdr index and hold, it pays dividends , is composed of real tangible physical assets, is not illegal, is not run by the Russian mafia mostly, and returns real returns, shooting stars fall to the earth very quickly.
Click to expand...
If you know how to sell options you can get returns of between 30-50% a year low risk, for no money down, people pay you, you never risk losing your entire betting bankroll. But the reason why it is uknown is because it requires statistics and at least college mathematics, and people with soft mushy brains ,like to imagine they can read squiggly lines on charts, their quesses have always proven no better than basically flipping a coin.
 

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