tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Son how cute
I’m a little older than son
Mine is a little older than 20 yr old sons
By quite a bit.
Reality of life
You maybe surprised by the reality I live.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading thread
- Thread starter greggles
- Start date
Son how cute
I’m a little older than son
Mine is a little older than 20 yr old sons
By quite a bit.
Reality of life
You maybe surprised by the reality I live.
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Property is just lagging the US subprime crisis you are lucky to have cashed out not clever, ln public libraries every shelf is full of books 100 properties in3 years etc.and every hall in every city has been full of spruikers selling housing leverage pyramid schemes for 15 years. It is another con whose time will come. I worked for a rich Jewish Property magnate a very cruel and clever man, and he lost a couple a hundred million on Brisbane canals property, during the boom time and he is ten times smarter than you, he started with nothing and is worth about 300 million in cash and probably a half billion property portfolio., in Australia, and how much he has in offshore tax havens who knows. I know of thousands of bankruptcies from this easy property dream I worked in the Insolvency branch of NSW courts, and issued writs of possession and mortgagee sales every day, and foreclosures.I then went to work for the rich solicitor, buying foreclosed properties, and watching him loan money to distressed investors to repossess their properties for a song. There are bigger cleverer sharks out there than you.
My comments about how to calculate drawdowns real returns , and growth rates seems to have been deleted, you really are not sure how much you have invested or made you are jut sure you are rich, but as I said I can make at least 30% a year, with no money down just a defined risk margin , people pay me, and I never risk more than 2% of my capital so when you are so clever and smug about those geeks, you risk 100 % everyday and invest every penny. I receive 100% for the promise at maximum of the loss of 20% of 2% of my capital, I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this, figure it out. I know you people ignorant of probability think that thing like probabilities of 80% are just fancy guesses they are real statistical facts, proven by years of trading of thousands of quants, law of large numbers and the kelly criterion prove this but that is beyond your complexity horizon
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Sorry about the thread drift but are you selling naked index puts ?
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I would also like to add I don't care whether the market goes up or down it makes no difference to me I profit either way, every time I trade in boom times or crashes, it makes no difference to me when I trade, I never buy, I only sell or Buy long sell short on the same asset, in different ratios. at different expiries and strike prices. and hold assets which are hedged and give a low beta weighting further eliminating risk and loss. Your welcome to the emperors new clothes and flying naked. I just started trying to warn people bitcoin smells fishy. I am going back to the options forum.
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OK, I get it, so you're selling naked puts and covered calls. How long have you been doing this ?
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Something about Pot and Kettle comes to mind
Lots of warnings about it from $500 onwards... Personally I'd rather participate in bubble upside than than just watch it go up and whine about valuations
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Anyways getting back on topic. BTC Markets/Coinspot etc all trade at a decent prem to US exchanges. Anyone had any luck setting up a fundable acct in one of the big US exchanges?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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You like most people see only once it was 500 now it is 20000, yes but when it was 500 you could have bought and it went to 750 and you got excited then it dropped to 250, , a lot of people drop there bundle and sell only to buy in in the next wave of mania at say 5000, then it goes to 10000, then it it drops 6500 and they panic again people really never calculate accurately the returns on investment, and where they stand on the ledger, people would be shocked if they did, there not really the millionaires they think they are, and bitcoin is totally unpredictable at any given point you jump on the bandwaggon, it can plummet and leave you penniless, my point is there is good solid investments giving good returns low risk that are real and asset backed, and pay quarterly dividends, bitcoin gives you nothing but promises and hope of being bigger than gordon gecko. Also on google feed I got news yesterday all the major bitcoin exchanges went down yesterday they could not cope with high volumes of traffic and blockchain was started to crash it could not recalculate fast enough. If anyone here has read the father of chaos theories book .Benoit Mandelbrot the famous physicists book the misbehaviour of markets the rapid upward scaling of transaction volumes in time is the first sign of chaos, in the market, the rest is 1987, GFC Dotcom etc. But I would absolutely never recommend anyone do anything but check what I say and make your own mind up, I could be totally wrong, nothing is certain in gambling, but I dont gamble I trade and use Investment science and make solid returns, not dreams of unimagined wealth, remember trading in things like bit coin is a zero sum gain for every winner there has to be a loser, can you guarantee you will win by holding on.
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It is ridiculous to say value does not matter, I do not mean traditional stock valuations, of course price is the only real value at any given point in time, I will not go into the mathematics and economics behind that conjecture, but what value is important to something as capricious and unpredictable as bit coin is its intrinsic value, or what you get in a fire sale or complete meltdown, it has no intrinsic value it is a promise given by the Russian mafia that you can buy some cocaine or pornography on silk road or the dark web, think about it. You all fail to seem to understand that at least 50% of successful trading is risk management and money management.
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The big Wall Street Banks that survived the GFC the best were not the best punters but the best risk managers, we will overlook the fed bailout, there is no one going to give you money if bitcoin goes down, no fed for you.
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You do realise that fully legal banks are flat out all over the world developing crypto like currencies, with blockchain technology to release onto the market in the coming months or maybe years I do not know how long, they will swamp bitcoin they trade in trillions not billions like bitcoin, they are a hundred percent legal and you can use them to buy your bus ticket or your maserati, think about it, you might be absolutely sure now is the time to buy bitcoin, but when is it time to sell? The ASX is in the process of completely rewriting its CHESS clearing house exchange software with block chain technology it should be up and running in 2018, they predict.
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Perhaps you should go back and check that. Is it really 0 sum?
To be clear I am 100% in agreement this is a bubble and will end in tears sooner rather than later.
But its a fantastic trading instrument that has made any half decent trader many bags on the way up.
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No i do not sell naked puts, nor only covered calls I have a portfolio of mixed positions according to market and sector dynamics, and never sell naked I sell defined risk I always know my maximum exposure and loss. I have been in the sharemarket since 1987, the collectibles market, illegal drug markets, and other shady as well as full legit trading markets. so have a pretty good idea about trading and value, I am a qualified Property valuer of both chattels as well as real property, an Econometrician, who studied operations research , forecasting time series and statistics quantitative methods and Corporate finance, and an ex CPA accountant and have seen more today's roosters become tomorrows feathers dusters than you can crow about. I have spent the last 3 years getting up to speed with predictive analytics and machine learning in R and python, Australian Universities are fairly behind the game by and large.I have not traded shares except as a hedge on option or futures positions since 2009. but Having said that I have devised a really good solid buy and hold portfolio strategy for mums and dads for their retirement, and will publish bits on blogs on the net, and publish in a kindle book fully, in the future. Options demand sophisticated mathematics not luck, and selling puts and covered calls is for people who are not well educated, they are really good solid investments however when managed properly, with good solid returns, I recommend the blue collar investor by Allan Elman, he exclusively trades this way. that is not my method.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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And can be shorted.
But hey why gamble!
The certain bubble should be the biggest opportunity
You’ll see.
Even Cassandra espouses this wisdom
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It is a simple equation there is no derivatives market on bitcoins no way to hedge, for every buyer there has to be a seller, and every buyer has to sell to to realise his gain, so you see at any point in time it is either heads or tails who wins . Can you predict the outcome at any point in time with complete certainty with out a derivatives market to hedge your speculation, whether your position is heads or tails, if you will be on top. In all markets the real winners are the brokers or exchanges or market makers, in this case the Russian mafia, and scammers who mine and sell bit coins and the exchanges. You are in essence holding what they used to describe in securities law way way back as a 'chose in action' or a promise to pay, not a real physical asset.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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I always have a bit of a chuckle when some 'lone ranger' come lately that suggests they have been hugely successful trading a lot of high brokerage positions in all types of strange derivatives (not spelt out exactly ever!), claims those here do not know what they are doing.
According to LR I'm doing everything wrong, trading the low end of the stockmarket for huge gains, with minimal brokerage to boot.
I just wish the tax office would acknowledge I'm doing the wrong thing and stop asking for more each year in advance.
LR, you have no idea the experience you are trying to preach to. We all understand Bitcoin is a bubble, like most junior stocks, but that does not mean we can't make money there.
I personally have never seen a risk free investment you have insinuated, as timing the exit of any positions can have a negative effect, no matter how 'smart' you think the position is.
I call BS on your claims, but please show one to prove me wrong.
According to LR I'm doing everything wrong, trading the low end of the stockmarket for huge gains, with minimal brokerage to boot.
I just wish the tax office would acknowledge I'm doing the wrong thing and stop asking for more each year in advance.
LR, you have no idea the experience you are trying to preach to. We all understand Bitcoin is a bubble, like most junior stocks, but that does not mean we can't make money there.
I personally have never seen a risk free investment you have insinuated, as timing the exit of any positions can have a negative effect, no matter how 'smart' you think the position is.
I call BS on your claims, but please show one to prove me wrong.
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Yes you may end up richer than Gordon gecko, but you fail to understand in bitcoin like all markets there is only a small fraction of big winners and by their psychological nature these speculators continue their pattern of behaviour, and the law of large numbers, states if they continue to play the odds get greater that at any point in time they will be losers too, read Nassim Nicholas Talebs, foooled by randomness, and the black swan, for explicit descriptions of such players. I did not make the comment about the cassandra complex, I had to look up what it was on wikipedia, it is neither here there to me, I am just trying to provide some rational guidance to those who are not knowledgeable about investment to stop them being lemings over the cliff blindly following others , I am not obsessive there are a lot of people smarter than me, or if not smart blessed with incredible good luck, I can explain this with rudimentary undergraduate statististical coin tossing experiments, but I would lose people, here people feel the thrill of being rich beyond there wildest fantasies, everyone who has had a sexual fantasy knows they rarely ever come true.
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Feel free I am not trying to convince anyone about what I do or anything else I am not obsessive or bragging merely stating facts, I am not going to justify or prove anything to you . You don't give up the goose that lays the golden eggs to anyone, but by your bragging you have the goose by the neck by both hands, all the best. good luck sunshine may the force be with you, I am trying to protect people who may stumble on your comments and think it is as easy as sticking the pin on the tail of the donkey without a blindfold.
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Futures are not a complete hedge vehicle, though granted they are a very good hedge for currency speculation , congratulations good luck, I have not looked up any of your links or any one else's , here I am not trying to preach to the converted as every atheist and skeptic knows you are never going to convince the pope god does not exist , as I have said below good luck ,and good fortune, may Zeus yahweh and shiva and the force be with you.I am here to provide a balanced opinion against one-eyed converts with blinkers on, to people whovisit this and need to seriously to weigh up the pros and cons before throwing money into something incredibly risky, like all fanatics you absolutely believe you are right, being a statistician I don't know what will happen, and I certainly don't claim to be absolutely right, or that how I trade is the best thing since sliced bread, but it works for me, I am not going to tell you how I do it, what sort of a fool do you think I am. Ed Thorp never told anyone how he became the worlds most successful gambler and investor, he only hinted and gave some examples, when he retired a few years back. By the way he was a UCLA math professor, who invented the black scholes formula before Black Scholes Merton were awarded the nobel prize for it ,he said he kept it secret and uses it the exact opposite to the way economists do. So calm down and relax, I am not a wealthy man and have not much to invest I live life to the fullest, love chess, play guitar and keyboards record music, help manage musicians love to computer program, love taichi and kung fu and aikido and japanese jujitsu and judo, and study and love philosophy and neuroscience and psychology and teach, I spend nearly every cent I have , as I have a number of congenital illnesses and have already lived past my life expectancy according to the actuarial mortality tables , so I ain't wasting time on fools.I am happy living in a small flat, driving a toyota yaris, and doing what I do, I do not dream of riches beyond imagination, do not want to be Gordon Gecko, and do not suffer from status anxiety or envy, but boy you have a bad case of schadenfreude. goodbye.
