Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Good example of how I can get myself into trouble

Took these trades while I was holding my above "good" GBP short trades.

The SPI was breaking daily highs with weak volume at the same time the Dow had opened and rejected its initial highs.

This also coincided with the Dow rejecting last weeks 50% zone and both the Dax and FTSE showing weakness ...... looked like a low risk "overnighter" to make a few bucks on the open tomorrow:headshake

Everything reversed and took the SPI with it. I added three more positions on the way up as new highs were made. My position was still relatively small, but still carrying a lot more risk than the original position.

Managed to close the four positions out for +9 ticks which included 12 ticks of "spread" Not a recommended way to trade however

Positives out of the trade:- Had a concrete reason/assessment for taking the initial trade. Position sized accordingly which gave me room to manoeuvre when things went pear shaped.

 

[cogs]

A good thing about the Asian close/London open, if you don't catch the jump there is always the retracement (fade).

Had a concrete reason/assessment for taking the initial trade. Position sized accordingly which gave me room to manoeuvre when things went pear shaped.

A sound entry plan mate. What's the saying 'the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain rational'.

We might see some active movement in the GBPUSD as it tops and tries to break through 1.70 ish testing, IMO of course.

 

[barney]

We might see some active movement in the GBPUSD as it tops and tries to break through 1.70 ish testing, IMO of course.

Agree .....

Interesting to see the behaviour of the USD/JPY on the JPY Housing Starts data this arvo as well. Negative 2.8% forecast hasn't been seen for a while

 

[cogs]

Agree .....

Interesting to see the behaviour of the USD/JPY on the JPY Housing Starts data this arvo as well. Negative 2.8% forecast hasn't been seen for a while

Non Farm Emp due in 5hrs, usually causes some movement.

USDJPY is a good pair until BOJ interferes.

CAD pairs seen some action recently, factoring in the GDP I'd say, set to be released just after NFE.

 

[barney]

Non Farm Emp due in 5hrs, usually causes some movement.

USDJPY is a good pair until BOJ interferes.

CAD pairs seen some action recently, factoring in the GDP I'd say, set to be released just after NFE.

You have a good handle on this stuff Cogs ... Its a pity you don't have more time up your sleeve to dabble.


Scaling into some GBP/AUD shorts at the moment ... will hopefully elaborate later

 

[barney]

Disregard my last post ..... The trade went into good profit for a short period, but I tried to ride out the retrace and got well and truly "stopped" !!

Won't even bother posting a chart As Arnie says ... "I'll be back"

 

[cogs]

Very late manual long entry on EURGBP, (between my day job and domestic duties), but I'll see what I can get out of it.

 

[cogs]

Very late manual long entry on EURGBP, (between my day job and domestic duties), but I'll see what I can get out of it.

View attachment 57786

Closed this out with a minor profit after analyzing EURUSD potential top.

Am watching GBPJPY to see what happens next.

 

[barney]

Closed this out with a minor profit after analyzing EURUSD potential top.

Am watching GBPJPY to see what happens next.

Yeah, glad you got out of that OK ......

Still a bit more upside in the Pound the way it looks at the moment.

 

[barney]

April trades ..... Some improvement in general re the amount of consistency. The occasional bad trades are still the downfall.

Its obvious that I am holding some of the losing trades too long and/or averaging in when I should be simply cutting the trade loose.

Couple of ongoing points to myself ...... Don't over trade. Don't assume the direction of the trend. Don't over position size too early when planning to scale into a trade etc.

Still learning the ropes, and seeing potential for improvement, so will continue on a bit longer. I am however leaning towards Index trading rather than FX, simply because the volatility of the short term swings in FX makes money management difficult with anything above micro size on a small account. That problem could of course simply be my lack of experience and knowledge of the market

Main positive, I ended the month with a small profit

 

[cogs]

With my withdrawals and manual meddling my chart looks very similar. Personally I think you're doing ok, you can see your profits being made, then the hard learning points.

No doubt about it, FX is tricky, anyone who says it's easy is full of **** IMO.

Don't assume the direction of the trend. Don't over position size too early when planning to scale into a trade etc.

I still fall for this sometimes still, with manual trading, as there are so many 'fake moves' for discount entries in FX.

Still think you could benefit from automating your ideas, sure it's not as dynamic as the human mind, but it takes out our human weaknesses that catches retail traders out. Only a small percentage of the FX market is now manual.

Because of my passion to trade I had trouble stopping trading after making a dollar, so ended up giving it back, hence the zero sum game many talk about. Another reason went auto.

Will PM you later.

 

[barney]

With my withdrawals and manual meddling my chart looks very similar. Personally I think you're doing ok, you can see your profits being made, then the hard learning points.

No doubt about it, FX is tricky, anyone who says it's easy is full of **** IMO.


I still fall for this sometimes still, with manual trading, as there are so many 'fake moves' for discount entries in FX.

Appreciate the input Cogs ..... Most of my "lessons" are caused by being complacent, and not cutting the bad trades loose quickly .... Probably a lack of planning more than anything.

Still think you could benefit from automating your ideas, sure it's not as dynamic as the human mind, but it takes out our human weaknesses that catches retail traders out. Only a small percentage of the FX market is now manual.

.

Yeah, its an interesting thought, but my discretionary nature would need to be overhauled with a few more systematic rules Not out of the question, but I need to put 2 or 3 profitable months together, with a smoother equity curve ...... see how the next couple of months go!

 

[barney]

Posting this up to make an example of my poor trading and not what to do .....

I often sail close to the wind regarding over position sizing relative to the account size I am trading.

The account I am using for this Forum exercise is very small and tonight I traded the Dax with well above the number of positions I should have. It continued against me and I got close to margin call territory, so I eventually cut and run

I did make up a lot of these losses on one of my larger accounts, but still well in the red for the night courtesy of poor planning.

Be interesting to see if I can recover from this episode by the end of the month or whether the account simply becomes untradeable due to lack of funds ...... Not pretty, but a good example of a live "Ballsup"

Like they say; continuing to make the same mistakes and expecting a different result is akin to insanity .... I fear I may be insane

 

[cogs]

Bit of a bad run on that one Barn.

Yep cut them and live to fight another day.

Hope you didn't get caught up in Drahgi's talk action last night, I still have some involvement, but should come out quite ok. I failed to check upcoming news after getting casual with the quiet period at the beginning of the week, I should have known something was on the way.

This is how I ended up so far after a late start Tuesday. Wasn't sure if I should post as I run the risk of looking like a smart a$$. God knows I've given the markets tens of thousands, now it's my turn.
View attachment 57907

 

[barney]

This is how I ended up so far after a late start Tuesday. Wasn't sure if I should post as I run the risk of looking like a smart a$$. God knows I've given the markets tens of thousands, now it's my turn.

Now that is an equity curve!! Well done Cogs. A 70%+ strike rate with good money management can only head one direction

I have topped up my Account to a more workable size as of today, so hopefully I can emulate your "curve" over the next couple of months We shall see.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Nice trading clogs!

Barn.... had a lack lustre last few days.... closed early took trades not at the end of the hour... once I realised I was not following 100% to my plan I took most of the last few off so I wouldn't do something really dumb. Mind was not there had trouble leaving them to do their thing.

Gold was in a range teasing it wanted to go lower... but even though it did make one more down just sucked back into the range... was a hard few days to try and trade it. WTI was a lot better but I was having mental issues....

Barn are you still scalping? I have found now that from AUST time 4pm to 1am is the best time for me to have a decent hit. Do you trading during a set time session in the day?

Like Cogs not trying to big note... statement is for my IC Markets so far from APR 23 to yesterday.

start was a disaster... thankfully I got my head right and started to get back to the mindset I had on the sim acc. still have a lot to work on... after a bit of time winning I get balance worried and start worrying I will lose money... this starts the not holding till TP hit and closing early... plus a took three dumb trades that where loses where I jumped in before the hour end... so over the weekend want to try and clear the mind and come back Monday focused... I should be over $700 now but due to losing it I’m where I am. 100% mind game this one.

overall I’m very happy I could come back like I did... but I am also quite disappointed in myself that I can't just keep it robotic and keep that mind frame going... as long as I have these weaknesses creeping in I won't be able to get a big acc going again and maybe one day do this full time.

 

[barney]

Barn are you still scalping? I have found now that from AUST time 4pm to 1am is the best time for me to have a decent hit. Do you trading during a set time session in the day?

Like Cogs not trying to big note... statement is for my IC Markets so far from APR 23 to yesterday.

start was a disaster... thankfully I got my head right and started to get back to the mindset I had on the sim acc. still have a lot to work on... after a bit of time winning I get balance worried and start worrying I will lose money... this starts the not holding till TP hit and closing early... plus a took three dumb trades that where loses where I jumped in before the hour end... so over the weekend want to try and clear the mind and come back Monday focused... I should be over $700 now but due to losing it I’m where I am. 100% mind game this one.

overall I’m very happy I could come back like I did... but I am also quite disappointed in myself that I can't just keep it robotic and keep that mind frame going... as long as I have these weaknesses creeping in I won't be able to get a big acc going again and maybe one day do this full time.

Nice return to form their Joe

Re Scalping; I don't set out to purposefully scalp Forex cause a) I'm not a good scalper, and b) Its probably the hardest "chart" to scalp ...... But I find because I am often not trading at the optimum time of day, I tend to be taking (or losing) a handful of pips most of the time ..... The time frame you mention is probably the most common for me under normal circumstances, but very little trading last few days due to family commitments. .... Just back from a couple of days in Sydney and about to see what's been happening in the market as we speak

Yours and Cogs E/Curve's are both very nice shape ..... keep it going

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Nice return to form their Joe

Re Scalping; I don't set out to purposefully scalp Forex cause a) I'm not a good scalper, and b) Its probably the hardest "chart" to scalp ...... But I find because I am often not trading at the optimum time of day, I tend to be taking (or losing) a handful of pips most of the time ..... The time frame you mention is probably the most common for me under normal circumstances, but very little trading last few days due to family commitments. .... Just back from a couple of days in Sydney and about to see what's been happening in the market as we speak

Yours and Cogs E/Curve's are both very nice shape ..... keep it going

Hi Barn,

I went to watch the Saints play tonight.... what %^$ of a game... terrible anyway we're rebuilding :1zhelp:

Missed a cracker on GLD but just caught a WTI buy... so now I have finally crossed the $700 point (only just)

This is one of my fav set ups... refer chart, the ent bar as marked is a sell bar with a tail off support that is the first retrace in a new forming bull move. I wait till the close and buy... due to this set up being in a solid range the Profit target is the first top. (Green line) I closed this trade there for 35 cents. They don't get much sweeter than that.

Barn that set up works a treat on FX but watch the longs needs to be a nice drive in the price... I do this alot in down trends... find it works very well mid range in the move. once you see some slowing you have to watch it.

Regards to acc's Cogs is very nice and clean impressive. I had a shocking start... but have pulled it together.. i just have to keep my head and keep calm while in trades. I have stop worrying about my acc balance and concentrate on letting my trades work or not work out.

both GLD and WTI are at highs now so i don't think there will be any more set ups for me before bed.... see what happens.

 

[cogs]

Looks like a similar play this week as last, a quiet start as the big push plays out before the fades start.

We may have potential for some good entries under way at the moment. US retails figures about to come out. I see oil jumped on the revised figures.

Interesting times though with S&P and Aus200 playing with highs and new zones, either trying to rope in some suckers at the tops, or a genuine push to higher ground?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Week so far...

Been happy with it, sticking to my rules and waiting... allowing trades to hit TP.

The two losses
Gold last night was a decent set up so can't fault it...
WTI trend break that failed and reversed caught it on the long side.

Both WTI and GLD at decent highs now so going to wait for it to work its self out.

WTI has been really moving this week... GLD till this afternoon was rather range bound.

I have to open Daily FX trades going... AUDUSD and GLD both longs.