Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Posting this one up as it may well be a Ballsup

Of course, I may also be a genius

It is a discretionary idea to hedge trade the Pound Aussie against the Euro Aussie based on the relative strength of the Euro Pound

Currently seeing short term strength in the Aussie with a weakening "retracement" in the EUR/GBP ....

The concept is to short the EUR/AUD and hedge with Longs on the GBP/AUD, depending on the position of the EUR/GBP (daily position)

Currently a few pips down, but that is the nature of a scale in trade ... we shall see what eventuates

 

[barney]

Currently a few pips down, but that is the nature of a scale in trade ... we shall see what eventuates

Trade went to plan .....

EUR/GBP continued to weaken (short term)

This kept the GBP/AUD treading water while the EUR/AUD Shorts gained some traction.

I added more positions to both the Pound longs and the Euro Shorts during the trade, depending on the position of the EUR/GBP in it's short term cycle ....

Closed all positions at just over 30 pip profit ...... Biggest issue is not being able to Multi close positions in MT4 to take advantage of a favourable position/lessen the impact of a worsening position in quick time ..... Fortunately this time, I was able to close all positions prior to any negative reversal.

There was some early heat taken on the trade of around 17-19 pips (cumulative of all positions held) when the short term reversal spikes hit the EUR/GBP, but the scaling aspect of the trade negated any serious downside. Certainly worth pursuing this "concept" a little further.

 

[barney]

Its not Forex and its not a Ballsup (for a change!) ..... One of only two Specs I own decided to treat me to a pleasant surprise today ..... and its been a long time between drinks believe me

Very early days, but LSR has always had the hallmarks of a potential multi bagger from its recent lows ..... today was a nice change of fortune after a very ordinary year of trading on my behalf If it ever returns to 10 cents, I WILL shout the bar lol ......

 

[Dean34]

Under normal circumstances I would have consider not derailing the thread with "non-pertinent" information ... but hell, I started the thread, so anything goes

You are obviously a fair bit younger than I am Deano, but music is the universal language and has no age boundaries.

The Band we first travelled to Sydney with from our country town was fortunate enough to have been writing/performing 70% original music to our "home" town peers at a young age. Back then (in the dark ages), people were prepared to actually listen to the content of the music, and not expect it to sound like a fabricated CD playing on the local radio ...... The music scene was alive and inventive, and the punters were able to appreciate the content, even if at times the execution was less than perfect. Unfortunately for the most part, those days are gone, which is a great pity.

People are often intolerant to Original music now days ..... What they should realise; that every "popular" song they hear was once an original idea which no one had heard ....... Personally I still love anything original, even if its badly played and poorly produced ...... as long as it has content which conveys something about the writer it is worthy of attention.

In relation to trading, I think there are parallels with original music and finding a workable trading style ..... TH (Trembling Hand) pointed out on many occasions ...... find your "own" patterns when you look at a chart, prove to yourself that they work, and trade those patterns cause they are "yours" ....... In his words ..... The "best" setups nearly always fail ! Smart man that TH .... Hopefully he may drop in again down the track.

In relation to trading (keeping on topic..lol) some people use their analytical side more, some their artistic side, and this may play a part too. Over the years I have managed to come to trust certain price patterns and how I deal with them.

 

[barney]

In relation to trading (keeping on topic..lol) some people use their analytical side more, some their artistic side, and this may play a part too. Over the years I have managed to come to trust certain price patterns and how I deal with them.

Totally agree that certain patterns seem to give a more consistent "bang for the buck" result (analytical interpretation) ....

I think the best retail traders are likely those who can appreciate the nuances (artistic interpretation) behind "why" those "analysed" patterns work ...... I could be totally deluded of course

 

[Dean34]

Totally agree that certain patterns seem to give a more consistent "bang for the buck" result (analytical interpretation) ....

I think the best retail traders are likely those who can appreciate the nuances (artistic interpretation) behind "why" those "analysed" patterns work ...... I could be totally deluded of course

Barney, Now we're getting into an area I love...the psychology of it all....I studied Elliot Wave intensely for years (I remember at this time I had got so sick of losing money I decided to stop trading for a while and just start studying anything trading related).

When learning elliot wave, it came across as a very objective interpretation of price behaviour...price 'will' do this after it does 'that', and if it does 'this', it can't do 'that', and so on....but it seemed to me that its objectivity comes from the subjective nature of the participants, like people are predictive, and that the student was going to have to realize at one point or another whether he's part of the subjective herd or actually an objective observer...one great teacher of the subject said that in the 90's it ran like clockwork..patterns would emerge on cue and one could trade them with ease prompting it to become a buzz in the trading community, but as the decade grew to an end it stopped acting this way and price patterns became complex....but I thought that maybe its overuse was what caused it to become complex...if the herd is usually wrong and if the herd had found this elliott wave to be the next buzz tool, then it shouldnt come as a surprise that it was no longer 'simple' to trade...

So being the nerd I am, in 2010 I started to a new project...I compiled all the biggest names, web sites, blogs etc who had a following of traders and predicted price using Elliot Wave...I followed them all intensively, their counts, drawing each count on the one chart to see where the counts converged and where they diverged, watching to see how may of them just followed the BIG names, and how many went their own paths.. that year I found 3 times when "ALL" those names, blogs etc had the "same count"...and each time price went in the direction that forced them all to have to change their count! They were the only times, when they all had the same counts, that they all had to change their counts.

I dont think thats a co-incidence, but, the most important thing I learned from this all was that price is going to go down the path of least resistance, whether trending or not.

How many times do we see spikes one way only to see it retrace all the other way, and then meander back to almost the extreme of the spike? How may stops got taken out in that? And if there weren't enough taken out, it will range some more. I see these patterns as not patterns that follow some technical or mechanical rule-set, but are the result of too many orders in too small an area, and it seems to be major S&R, especially at psychological prices, that attracts the crowd more than any other tool out there, and thats why I use it.

 

[barney]

I dont think thats a co-incidence, but, the most important thing I learned from this all was that price is going to go down the path of least resistance, whether trending or not.

How many times do we see spikes one way only to see it retrace all the other way, and then meander back to almost the extreme of the spike? How may stops got taken out in that? And if there weren't enough taken out, it will range some more. I see these patterns as not patterns that follow some technical or mechanical rule-set, but are the result of too many orders in too small an area, and it seems to be major S&R, especially at psychological prices, that attracts the crowd more than any other tool out there, and thats why I use it.

Personally, I pretty much understand and appreciate everything you speak about in your posts Dean ... Unfortunately I would still consider myself well behind you in adapting that knowledge into a profitable trading system, probably because I like to experiment too much ... i.e. The thrill is in the application of the ideas rather than the money ......

I think anyone who tries to trade FX needs to discover and come to grips with their own (personal) Demons ..... Interestingly, I know when I am doing dumb stuff now days ... but I still do dumb stuff ....

It seems to me that you have been able to recognise and come to grips with your Demons, and have formulated a workable system which suits your personality and is consistently profitable ....... That is a personal Holy Grail, so well done!

 

[Dean34]

Personally, I pretty much understand and appreciate everything you speak about in your posts Dean ... Unfortunately I would still consider myself well behind you in adapting that knowledge into a profitable trading system, probably because I like to experiment too much ... i.e. The thrill is in the application of the ideas rather than the money ......

I think anyone who tries to trade FX needs to discover and come to grips with their own (personal) Demons ..... Interestingly, I know when I am doing dumb stuff now days ... but I still do dumb stuff ....

It seems to me that you have been able to recognise and come to grips with your Demons, and have formulated a workable system which suits your personality and is consistently profitable ....... That is a personal Holy Grail, so well done!

I think you're a lot closer than you realize...your honest for one thing! And you've got a wise head on your shoulders. When you admit the thrill is in the application of ideas, is that really detrimental if it eventually becomes an idea you can trust? It's more like an investment. I just redefined success and it became easier to realize...that was how I defeated my demons...my demons were defining my success, not me...im sure you can do the same

 

[barney]

I think you're a lot closer than you realize...your honest for one thing! And you've got a wise head on your shoulders. When you admit the thrill is in the application of ideas, is that really detrimental if it eventually becomes an idea you can trust? It's more like an investment. I just redefined success and it became easier to realize...that was how I defeated my demons...my demons were defining my success, not me...im sure you can do the same

As I said to Joe (Apocolypto) and Cogs earlier in the thread, the input from you guys has been/is very much appreciated.

Your plan of defining success with "realistic" and achievable goals (+ Compounding), is another good example of advice worth listening to

 

[barney]

Been in tune with the market this week for a pleasant change

Scaled into a short position on the Pound/USD over the last few minutes which is showing potential to make a nice return even on my micro account ...... Baby trades on this account, but making a good trade decision is a good thing on any account!!

 

[barney]

Scaled into a short position on the Pound/USD over the last few minutes which is showing potential to make a nice return even on my micro account

Following up on that tack, I took a couple of micro shorts about a half hour ago on the GBP/USD and will continue to look for valid shorts in the "short" term (poor pun, but I'm no Jim Carey!)

Trade concept:-

The EUR/GBP has been searching for a bottom for a long time and looks like bouncing (short term) ....

The EUR/USD still looks weak (short term) even though the EUR/GBP is showing indications that it might bounce.

Therefore ... The GBP/USD should weaken at the appropriate moments

I have already closed the attached trade at over +20 pips (micro account so no big excitement , but its the process I'm interested in)

I will continue to look for Pound Shorts; maybe later tonight; maybe later this week, if the EUR/GBP continues to show signs of bouncing (This is still short term stuff as the Euro still looks weak against the Pound mid term .... if that doesn't make sense, welcome to my world

PS. just as I was about to post this the GBP/USD dived ... so I could have netted another +20 pips had I run a trailing stop just outside the action ..... I thought it was too early in the night for this to happen .... wrong again

 

[cynic]

After having opened and funded an FX account almost one year ago, I received a courtesy call yesterday alerting me to the fact that I was about to be hit with an inactivity fee unless I placed a token trade.

So I decided that the best thing to do was bite the bullet and place my first ever FX trade. I placed a small position on AUD/USD and promptly closed it as soon as it went slightly in my favour.

Having made a grand total of two cents Australian on my first and only FX trade, I am now proudly boasting my 100% success rate.

Any future FX trades cannot enhance my 100% strike rate, but they could diminish it!

So I think I'll quit whilst I still have a faultless record.

P.S. I'm happy to show Joe the broker statement proving my 0.02c profit should any doubts regarding the authenticity of my claim be raised.

 

[barney]

Having made a grand total of two cents Australian on my first and only FX trade, I am now proudly boasting my 100% success rate.

So I think I'll quit whilst I still have a faultless record.

P.S. I'm happy to show Joe the broker statement proving my 0.02c profit should any doubts regarding the authenticity of my claim be raised.

LOL .... You are way ahead of most Cynic!

ps. Your shout:alcohol:

 

[barney]

Just musing since Cynic prompted me to post ....... My post 151 above stated a couple of things which I have bolded out below.

My analysis last month was near perfect, almost picking the short term tops and bottoms of both Pairs within a few pips

Guess who sat on his hands for much of the month and missed one of the best monthly runs in ages ... Now that IS a Ballsup

I took a couple of micro shorts about a half hour ago on the GBP/USD and will continue to look for valid shorts in the "short" term

Trade concept:-

The EUR/GBP has been searching for a bottom for a long time and looks like bouncing(short term) ....

The EUR/USD still looks weak (short term) even though the EUR/GBP is showing indications that it might bounce.

Therefore ... The GBP/USD should weaken at the appropriate moments

I will continue to look for Pound Shorts; maybe later tonight; maybe later this week, if the EUR/GBP continues to show signs of bouncing (This is still short term stuff as the Euro still looks weak against the Pound mid term .... if that doesn't make sense, welcome to my world

The RED arrows show the exact place I suggested the GBP/USD was ready to go Short hunting and the EUR/GBP was close to finding a bottom ............. Pity I don't listen to myself

The lesson from the above:- Trust your analysis, then act on it ..... If trading intraday, keep an eye on the bigger picture at all times ....... Write your analysis down, and review it often ... etc. etc.

 

[barney]

Short term swing/scalp on the EUR/USD ...

Just added second scale in ..... target at the circle ......

Logic behind trade ....... EUR a bit under powered at present particularly against the GBP, but the GBP is a bit lack lustre against the USD as well ...

Hence short term swing against the EUR/USD ........

Past the short term I am actually looking for Long entries on the EUR/USD maybe even late tonight if it tanks hard enough

See how it pans out

 

[barney]

Follow up .... Added a position on a retrace


EUR still not out of the woods short term ... maybe

 

[barney]

EUR/GBP started to bottom (short term)

GBP/USD started to top (short term)

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth they say .... closed out positions for 12 pips profit ... It looks like it will likely continue lower in the short term but happy to cut and run, as I have a SHORT running on the FTSE which may need attention

 

[barney]

FTSE SHORT mentioned above just closed ... will be looking for more Shorts tonight depending on momentum across the board ..... Been better tonight on the feel of the market ...

Some nights feel like diamonds ....


Some night feel like ... Whoa!! LOL ...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

hi Barn how have you been going?

trading the wti and gld off the 1 hour has been challenging over the last several months. a lot of false signals coming around... fair few entries that have no real follow though.

Started playing the 1min again for a bit of fun on the DAX... did ok for 2 weeks but felt due to the speed of the info coming at you it's not going to work. I was right.. in one day took out 1.5 weeks gains.

Now trading the DAX a lot off the 5 min only for the fist several hours on open. on open at 4pm the spread moves to two then by 5pm it's1 point. i normally start at 4:30 finish by 6:30-7pm. I tried trading after 7 till 1am but that didn't work out well. too many quiet patches that lead to ranges and chop outs. i found in the first few hours you will get that 1-2 trades that can give you 10-20points clear. sill work in progess but it's the same approach i use on the 1 hour to the 5min strong move pull back HL or LH with a trend break to confirm ent.

Also looking at the Dow from 11pm but most night I'm happy to call it a day at 7pm

still work in progress... two trades yesterday, both yellow circles first no idea why i took it just had a hunch would try the high... 2nd main ones i look for trend brake with trend first counter reversal.

 

[barney]

hi Barn how have you been going?


Started playing the 1min again for a bit of fun on the DAX... did ok for 2 weeks but felt due to the speed of the info coming at you it's not going to work. I was right.. in one day took out 1.5 weeks gains.

.

Yeah going Ok Joe ......

M8 we must have a similar trading pattern. Last week did something similar with one of my dumb "keep adding to a losing position" trades ..... That's one they don't teach in manual! Anyway, I also cleaned up all my previous weeks profits!

Was trading pretty well last night so went to my larger account to trade a bit bigger ...... I thought my crystal ball could pick the top of the FTSE for some reason .... That didn't end too well either!

Also looking at the Dow from 11pm but most night I'm happy to call it a day at 7pm

still work in progress... two trades yesterday, both yellow circles first no idea why i took it just had a hunch would try the high... 2nd main ones i look for trend brake with trend first counter reversal.

Both ideas were logical ... I like the trend break trade

Cheers .... good to see you back.