Barney's Ballsups

[>Apocalypto<]

Sorry Barney not trying to hijack...

Will keep updating as the month goes on.

had a few loses in a row but made them back... same old trading the GJ sold the aud but closed it as it really is not with my plan so it shouldn't have happened.

have a sell open looking for a base to crack, still some buyers on it so will keep holding till market proves me right or wrong... most trades atm will be .05, exciting i know. but at 10% in front i normally cut the size.

sell not looking so good atm might be buying later tonight.

 

[barney]

Sorry Barney not trying to hijack...

Will keep updating as the month goes on.

No worries Apoc .... Happy for you to post results and any other stuff you think could be helpful/useful etc, so please continue

How about the GBP tonight .... About 100 pips in 60 seconds against almost everything!!Makes you feel a bit like ..... LOL ...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

No worries Apoc .... Happy for you to post results and any other stuff you think could be helpful/useful etc, so please continue

How about the GBP tonight .... About 100 pips in 60 seconds against almost everything!!Makes you feel a bit like ..... LOL ...

haha i was short when that move came through...

Long now looking for 60 pips of follow through.

 

[Jake S]

Gday Barney & co,

I like what you are doing here!
Its great to reflect back previous errors & learn from them, its the only way! I have my fair share of 'ballsup trades'. I also have a few good ones. I hope to post here in the future if that is no problem as I believe I could share some of my knowledge as can everyone else.

The currencies don't seem to get a huge crowd here so would be good to see a bit of traffic & some thoughts and or constructive criticism.

Until next time,
Keep up the good work.

Jake.

 

[barney]

Gday Barney & co,

I like what you are doing here!
Its great to reflect back previous errors & learn from them, its the only way! I have my fair share of 'ballsup trades'. I also have a few good ones. I hope to post here in the future if that is no problem as I believe I could share some of my knowledge as can everyone else.

The currencies don't seem to get a huge crowd here so would be good to see a bit of traffic & some thoughts and or constructive criticism.

Until next time,
Keep up the good work.

Jake.

Howdy Jake ... and welcome from Tasmania!

M8, Please post anything and everything that you think could be of interest .... I only started this thread cause I thought it might actually help cure some of my FX trading Demons ..... So far I have learned that I am still a better Index trader than FX trader ... lol ... Unfortunately I am still an average Index trader!!

I hope to update in time and show how I've improved my strike rate ... In the meantime, it would be great if others can show their progress (or lack of) in FX or anything else .... Cheers.

 

[barney]

Thought I'd post this trade up I did earlier in the month (10th January) Didn't get any actual trade screenshots at the time as it was over in less than a minute

Please note ..... This is the WORST TRADE I have done in a few months.

Chart 1 is where I initially took a short entry ... I don't generally trade breakouts in anything anymore but I literally sat down at the computer for less than a minute, saw the Euro losing power to the downside and jumped straight in without any analysis at all .... BAD MOVE lol (not that I was laughing at the time)

On face value it looks like more potential downside, but there is a sting in the tail with FX ..... (i.e. ....watch the 24 hour timeframe, which I omitted to do in my haste!)

Anyway, there are several lessons here, all of which I was aware of if I had taken the time to look at the past price action ..... I didn't do that and paid the price.

 

[barney]

Closer up view of the next 45 -60 seconds .....

I closed the trade on the spike (about minus 70 pips), but then made the mistake of trying to chase it both directions as the big money jockeyed for positions over the 95 pip range which took literally seconds in both directions ...... Four trades later ... minus about 170 pips ....... IDIOT

Fortunately stopped trading for a couple of minutes and re-grouped to end up only 110 pips down for the session, but just another reminder of how not to trade Forex!!

Also fortunately for the rest of the month I have traded ok, but the bad days need to be eliminated if I am ever going to get on top of this

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Closer up view of the next 45 -60 seconds .....

I closed the trade on the spike (about minus 70 pips), but then made the mistake of trying to chase it both directions as the big money jockeyed for positions over the 95 pip range which took literally seconds in both directions ...... Four trades later ... minus about 170 pips ....... IDIOT

Fortunately stopped trading for a couple of minutes and re-grouped to end up only 110 pips down for the session, but just another reminder of how not to trade Forex!!

Also fortunately for the rest of the month I have traded ok, but the bad days need to be eliminated if I am ever going to get on top of this

Hi Barney,

I also made some classics over the last week once i hit +15% it all turned on me. still following my plan dropped three in a row that wiped out half my makings. Quick bounce up, started again more losses... no idea why just didn’t work out. Ended up 10% down. so I had a deal that if this happened i would take 85% of my acc out. I have done that. (That includes profit form the last two months) so back to 218$ in my acc. had two wins but went off the plan and lost 4 in a row. $170 acc. things looking grim went back to the core set ups and rules i have been using for 3 months. Pulled 53$ back on a short Friday that I cut... turned out to be a 200+ pip winner but that's life.

so back to 233$ acc and still $30 down to claim a 3rd profitable month. Trading .05 - .08 sizes. Going to sit tight this week and look for a nice one or two. Looking for a third month in front but not going to chase it. Trying to keep my head.

Unlike other times this has happened i have had no regrets or been overly upset about what happened. Just believe stick to the plan and follow my rules without getting to involved.

Love the FOREX one sec king of the world, second sec lying on the ground bleeding wondering what happened. : )

 

[barney]

Love the FOREX one sec king of the world, second sec lying on the ground bleeding wondering what happened. : )

Indeed

 

[barney]

No gory details just yet but the Pound feels a bit short at the moment

 

[barney]

No gory details just yet but the Pound feels a bit short at the moment

Just fishing with short term trades when I made that statement, but the vibe was right at the time ......

 

[barney]

Took the last trade off the table way too early yet again ..... Should I be happy with +28 pips ...... Nah, that is another Ballsup trade to me ... So much to learn!!


EDIT:-
Actually I shouldn't call that a Ballsup to be fair to myself .... What I should have done is trailed a tight stop to take advantage of the move ..... The analysis was ok; the entry was ok; the exit was early and cost a fair amount of pips ... Two out of three is actually an improvement

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Took the last trade off the table way too early yet again ..... Should I be happy with +28 pips ...... Nah, that is another Ballsup trade to me ... So much to learn!!


EDIT:-
Actually I shouldn't call that a Ballsup to be fair to myself .... What I should have done is trailed a tight stop to take advantage of the move ..... The analysis was ok; the entry was ok; the exit was early and cost a fair amount of pips ... Two out of three is actually an improvement

Hey Barney,

Never kick yourself for missing some. on the 1 hour or lower times... it changes so fast that grabbing what you think is nice is at times the best way to go. (as long as it's decent RR) i noticed the GJ moves around 100-170 a short move. so by the time i get in and out that normally means 50-90 for me.

well last night i got back all my losses, month is a small profit again. I just took a long on the GJ so see how that pans out. last three where all decent wins.

like this range break on the 1 hour looking for this current hour to be a inside bar to set up further move up. but now i have posted it, it will most likely be a loser LOL.

 

[barney]

Hey Barney,

Never kick yourself for missing some. on the 1 hour or lower times... it changes so fast that grabbing what you think is nice is at times the best way to go. (as long as it's decent RR) i noticed the GJ moves around 100-170 a short move. so by the time i get in and out that normally means 50-90 for me.

well last night i got back all my losses, month is a small profit again. I just took a long on the GJ so see how that pans out. last three where all decent wins.

like this range break on the 1 hour looking for this current hour to be a inside bar to set up further move up. but now i have posted it, it will most likely be a loser LOL.

Yeah, you are right Apoc ..... 28 pips is not to be sneezed at for a short term trade. I ended up a handful of pips down by the end of the session after butchering a couple of other trades lol

Good luck with the GJ long ..... Been out all day, but notice the USD has been weaker than the GBP against the JPY which is why the GBPUSD has been on the up today.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Yeah, you are right Apoc ..... 28 pips is not to be sneezed at for a short term trade. I ended up a handful of pips down by the end of the session after butchering a couple of other trades lol

no, not at all. i have stopped trying to have per day/week/month return ideas. it never works out like that. I think it's dangerous to think that way. win is a win and as long as u get there the ups and downs are just part of it. by the sounds of it you made a dollar today so that's a thumbs up from me.

Good luck with the GJ long ..... Been out all day, but notice the USD has been weaker than the GBP against the JPY which is why the GBPUSD has been on the up today.

well today was a real rollercoaster, some of what i methioned above really unfolded today.

Refer to the chart i posted with the numbered trades i made.

1 was the long i posted i took. That was stopped out. (what did i tell u!)
2 2nd long as it keep shaping up as a continuation pattern closed it for a small win.
3 3rd try at a break out this was also rejected at the highs. stopped out
4 took a short as the range couldn't break that high.. this was stopped out on the next bar's high. at this point i was in real trouble acc was back at 180.
5 seeing it fail again at that high i went all in believing in this pattern and that it would break. if this failed i would have ruined my acc as i was short by .12 with 41 pip stop she broke clawed back $75.9.

So what did i learn today? back yourself if you're trading with coolness and not emotion. I was a little mad on the size of the last trade but i really felt it was done at that high and going to cut all the weak longs out. trading is never black and white and no matter how dark it looks the sun is just around the corner. so second time this month i have taken a black hole back to fresh highs in profit. Month profit is up more then it began this morning, but it was a wild ride.

as what happened to you, i could have hung onto that short or trimmed 1/2 and let it run but for me 57 pips was good for me so i closed. can't catch them all. (still falling now) looking for shorts on the next decent retrace.

enjoying the chat barney

 

[barney]

well today was a real rollercoaster, some of what i methioned above really unfolded today.

So what did i learn today? back yourself if you're trading with coolness and not emotion.

I know what you mean by Rollercoaster Apoc

Been trading a bit crappy this week, but have managed to dig myself out of a couple of holes which is a positive sign. Overall the Ballsups have been generally neutralised this month

Scatter chart for January, and graph of December and January Profit/Loss ...... 484 trades for the two months (Dec-Jan) and I am almost dead level where I started from lol ...... That's actually an improvement on where I was at a few months back ...... Scary but true

Taking a lot of short term/scalp trades which is not really an ideal way to trade FX, but the more screen time the better at this stage. Couple of good lessons learned this month ..... ie. Don't get suckered into spikes (retail traps) leading into the London/US opens. When scaling in, don't get overweight too early if the position is not behaving. Be more patient with entries. Don't chase breakouts ..... Don't chase breakouts ..... did I mention breakouts!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I know what you mean by Rollercoaster Apoc

Been trading a bit crappy this week, but have managed to dig myself out of a couple of holes which is a positive sign. Overall the Ballsups have been generally neutralised this month

Scatter chart for January, and graph of December and January Profit/Loss ...... 484 trades for the two months (Dec-Jan) and I am almost dead level where I started from lol ...... That's actually an improvement on where I was at a few months back ...... Scary but true

Taking a lot of short term/scalp trades which is not really an ideal way to trade FX, but the more screen time the better at this stage. Couple of good lessons learned this month ..... ie. Don't get suckered into spikes (retail traps) leading into the London/US opens. When scaling in, don't get overweight too early if the position is not behaving. Be more patient with entries. Don't chase breakouts ..... Don't chase breakouts ..... did I mention breakouts!

Hi Barney,

good efforts, getting a BE at times is as good a profit. in terms of learning. plus not every month will be a winner. Stopping the draw down is imo very important. I was lucky again this month, as I was back at 189$ again yesterday. Pulled in 79.3 to salvage the month. had two small wins this morning on longs but in hindsight they where bad trades.

after a very similar month to last month.. a lot of wild swings... I finished up with about 3.8% that's $10.08 on my micro account. but that's 3 months for me now in a row. i won't ad more funds till a can bring this acc but up to $300. will look to ad 1k if i can do that and hold that figure at Febs end. see how FEB goes. I still have a few bad habits that worry me, which i need to try and stop.

I main mistakes i made this month are the consistent ones i make.
Not waiting for the bar to close.
Not waiting for a confirmation statement bar.. (impatience)
Over trading a little to much this month.
Not holding new trend patterns trades a little longer (Fear of losing what I don't own yet)

a sell is shaping up atm on the GJ but i will wait for it to confirm.

Going to the 20/20 tonight so this might be it for Jan.

The massive dip in the graph is my withdrawal.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

a couple more graphs

DEC NOV and the last three months in one.

 

[barney]

I still have a few bad habits that worry me, which i need to try and stop.

I main mistakes i made this month are the consistent ones i make.
Not waiting for the bar to close.
Not waiting for a confirmation statement bar.. (impatience)
Over trading a little to much this month.
Not holding new trend patterns trades a little longer (Fear of losing what I don't own yet)

Appreciate your input Apoc. Enjoy the cricket

 

[barney]

Update for the month, and some personal assessment to keep me focussed ....

Been sitting on my hands a lot this month. I often wonder why after watching Forex charts for so long, that I can't just sit down at the computer and immediately "know" where the market is going, and trade accordingly ..... At times I have been able to do that, but not often enough to start putting serious money on trades.

Only 67 trades this month on my live micro account ...... The graph is heading slightly up, but the same "result" for three months in a row tells me something has to change to make this work.

My 3 month results show ...... The majority of trades are either scratch or very close to scratch, which is not a bad thing, but the percentage of scratch trades compared to the number of good/winning trades is too high. The bulk of the profits come from occasional outlier trades .... this is not a good model to base from.

My results indicate I could be profitable, but would need an account size around 20-30K just to cover the leverage required ..... The reason for this is basically, my entries are often not good enough to get on the winning side quick enough and I need to scale in often to cover this. (Simple fix ... better entries:1zhelp:


Short conclusion ....... I have basically been trying to short term/scalp trade FX hoping that the volume of trades might "teach" me more quickly. This is probably the hardest way to trade FX, so perhaps taking a step backwards and building up positions more slowly via swing trading might be a better option. I am impatient so this would require some work.

3 months info has given me enough ammo to sort a few things out. I need to go back over the good the bad and the ugly trades and journal why they did or didn't work .... Bookwork is not my forte (another problem

The account balance may not be moving much but I have stopped losing month after month like I used to so there may be some hope. See how things go over the next couple of months.