Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Not happy to post this graph up, but it is what it is


Brief rundown of the month; Started with a shocker half dozen trades after a reasonable previous month ..... The big early losses were actually Index trades. I took a couple of positions, got into trouble, then started flipping in and out of positions chasing losses ... needless to say, I lost the chase Of course, had I held onto my original position the loss would have been miniscule (lesson 1 ... trust your analysis)

For the bulk of the month after that ballsup, I actually traded OK, slowly making up a reasonable amount of the losses, before stuffing up again with some bad entries and getting into leverage problems due to my small account size.

Fortunately, this is only my play money account; On my larger account, I went in harder as the position started to turn where I expected, and I ended the month in reasonable shape. (Lesson 2 ... Don't position size above your weight!)

The most obvious thing to me is what I already know .... My winning positions are around the 50% mark yet I still manage to lose more than I make ... Knowing when to hold or fold is important, but more importantly ... Better Entries!!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Short conclusion ....... I have basically been trying to short term/scalp trade FX hoping that the volume of trades might "teach" me more quickly. This is probably the hardest way to trade FX, so perhaps taking a step backwards and building up positions more slowly via swing trading might be a better option. I am impatient so this would require some work.

Hope you don't mind some comment on your thread?

I have been there. The killer for scalp trading is making the spread and or commission before one breaks even and moves into profit. For every loss taken add that spread/comm. Don't throw your money away into the shark pool mate. Trade for quality not quantity. Trade smarter.

 

[barney]

Hope you don't mind some comment on your thread?

I have been there. The killer for scalp trading is making the spread and or commission before one breaks even and moves into profit. For every loss taken add that spread/comm. Don't throw your money away into the shark pool mate. Trade for quality not quantity. Trade smarter.

Howdy Wys .... Any/all comments greatly appreciated,

Yeah I know within myself I'm not clever enough to scalp trade ... especially FX which can spit you out in a heart beat (and does regularly!) ......

Re trading smarter, I assume you mean swing/position trade? Scale in with smaller position sizes and build a position over a longer time frame? If that's what you mean, I totally agree.

If you were starting again, what would you consider the most important "ingredients" to successful FX trading?

Cheers.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Howdy Wys .... Any/all comments greatly appreciated,

Yeah I know within myself I'm not clever enough to scalp trade ... especially FX which can spit you out in a heart beat (and does regularly!) ......

This is my failed month of February in which I trialled a system which had back tested reasonably well. I bought data, run it through Amibroker and punted the signals though FX account. Some was discretionary but obviously real time and backtest is different. I could have been physically slow on the mouse or hesitant or rushed at times. I was even angry at times because price moved against me more often than not. I traded frequently at 908 times in the month. I could not turn the equity curve up. Commission plus Swap was $520.

Time scale = 1 & 5 minutes
Trades = 908
Commission cost = $520
Loss = $3662.13

If you were starting again, what would you consider the most important "ingredients" to successful FX trading?

Trade sparingly and trade with conviction. Wider stop loss and smaller position size.

 

[barney]

This is my failed month of February in which I trialled a system which had back tested reasonably well. I bought data, run it through Amibroker and punted the signals though FX account. Some was discretionary but obviously real time and backtest is different. I could have been physically slow on the mouse or hesitant or rushed at times. I was even angry at times because price moved against me more often than not. I traded frequently at 908 times in the month. I could not turn the equity curve up. Commission plus Swap was $520.

Time scale = 1 & 5 minutes
Trades = 908
Commission cost = $520
Loss = $3662.13


Trade sparingly and trade with conviction. Wider stop loss and smaller position size.

Nasty looking graph Wys! Those kind of months are a real confidence drain for sure.

Agree 100% ... positions size relative to the heat your account can absorb is critical.


NFP about to be released ..... I have a few trawling buy/sell orders way out of the market just in case of some rogue spikes

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Barney,

well after the decent months i had with the GJ I was caught hard in march took a beat-down at the start of the month and never came back.

This is FX for you... still trading FX on the daily but giving it away under the daily time frame.

When i had my IB acc i did well trading Oil and a little Gold. So I spent from the 12th arch till today trading demo 1 hour WTI and Spot Gold. made 751 points since 12/03 till now. Just opened and funded a live acc with IC Markets to trade those two only off the 1 hour using my normal approach.

Trading 1$ per tick for starting balance of $500 , will update on my progress.

Personally I feel scalping FX is extremely hard, also the work required for return is insane. have you looked at higher time frames?

Cheers
Joe

 

[cogs]

the work required for return is insane

Absolutely correct mate. I had to step back this year to see if it is really worth it, compared to my day job it is simply just not even worth turning my PC on.

The only way I could see it being worth my while was putting my trading ideas into an EA and spending maybe an hr or so a day just checking up on it. I get my ~$50 for that effort so it works for now, but it really has highlighted how leverage is my and any retail traders enemy.

FX is a lot of neg leverage to make a lesser return.

Think we may see some EUR and GBP action in the next few hrs, gaps to fill, near tops reached, should be interesting.

 

[barney]

Hi Barney,

well after the decent months i had with the GJ I was caught hard in march took a beat-down at the start of the month and never came back.

This is FX for you... still trading FX on the daily but giving it away under the daily time frame.

When i had my IB acc i did well trading Oil and a little Gold. So I spent from the 12th arch till today trading demo 1 hour WTI and Spot Gold. made 751 points since 12/03 till now. Just opened and funded a live acc with IC Markets to trade those two only off the 1 hour using my normal approach.

Trading 1$ per tick for starting balance of $500 , will update on my progress.

Personally I feel scalping FX is extremely hard, also the work required for return is insane. have you looked at higher time frames?

Cheers
Joe

Hey Joe (Good name for a song ....)

I'm hearing you about the struggle with FX. I'll persevere a bit longer but agree scalping is not the way to trade it. Still looking for some kind of edge ...in any time framelol

Good luck with IC.

 

[barney]

The only way I could see it being worth my while was putting my trading ideas into an EA and spending maybe an hr or so a day just checking up on it. I get my ~$50 for that effort so it works for now, but it really has highlighted how leverage is my and any retail traders enemy.

Howdy Cogs ..... How much starting capital do you need to run the EA account without margin issues? If it keeps working will you consider upping the stake?

 

[barney]

Speaking of trouble trading FX, I traded pretty poorly early last night but scalped a few dollars from the SPI late when the US started to roll over, so I may as well post it up ......

Seems to be coming a common issue ... Lose money on FX ... try and break even with an Index trade .. not an ideal recipe for success


The spread was 3 ticks both in and out so out of the 13 ticks I banked 7 which is not too bad on the SPI after hours.

 

[cogs]

Hi Barn,

Having played around with trying to find a solution to being profitable in FX for what seems like half my life, I seem to have knuckled it down to a certain extent. Between being financially destroyed in a separation and being familiar with the nature of HFT, broker tricks, market changes and so on, I wasn't prepared to sink much money into any trading again, without generating a higher degree in confidence in a logical method, so going live with my EA I restricted start up to $500. I withdrew that several days later, and it just runs on its own resources now.

I guess that was the long answer.

I am very reluctant to discuss this sort of stuff on live forums as I have been hunted down in the past, phoned up by my broker (after putting he two and two together) from my comments, over another matter.

I can say with confidence to make money in this game you need to cover all bases.

From what I have seen you should be able to (EA) your trading style. The biggest challenge traders have, and overlook with EA's is not adapting to market changes, and big moves like the AUD CPI (bank) move 2 days ago. I am happy with how I am dealing with this now, but am always aware there could be bigger surprises around the corner.

Yes, I love trading.

 

[barney]

Hi Barn,

Having played around with trying to find a solution to being profitable in FX for what seems like half my life, I seem to have knuckled it down to a certain extent. Between being financially destroyed in a separation and being familiar with the nature of HFT, broker tricks, market changes and so on, I wasn't prepared to sink much money into any trading again, without generating a higher degree in confidence in a logical method, so going live with my EA I restricted start up to $500. I withdrew that several days later, and it just runs on its own resources now.

I guess that was the long answer.

I am very reluctant to discuss this sort of stuff on live forums as I have been hunted down in the past, phoned up by my broker (after putting he two and two together) from my comments, over another matter.

I can say with confidence to make money in this game you need to cover all bases.

From what I have seen you should be able to (EA) your trading style. The biggest challenge traders have, and overlook with EA's is not adapting to market changes, and big moves like the AUD CPI (bank) move 2 days ago. I am happy with how I am dealing with this now, but am always aware there could be bigger surprises around the corner.

Yes, I love trading.

Thanks for the reply Cogs, and well done on coding an EA that is cash positive. Certainly don't want to steal any of your system ideas, but do you think an ageing rock guitarist could make any sense out of Coding?

Just guessing, but with the spike on the Aussie you mention, I assume some kind of Filter (excessive Range movement relative to Time perhaps??) would be needed to either close, flip or cover? Is that on the right track? Cheers.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Boys, well my return to oil&GLD was not the start i wanted at all.... mind was not there and hit 212 acc very quickly. back up to 312 atm but was ready to punch screens other day. mind is the key to this... i was doing the opposite of my demo trading... chasing trades flipping... ect ect

but picked up in the composure department and making more sensible trades...

Daily GJ just sold it... stop above the bar high.

 

[cogs]

Barn,

but do you think an ageing rock guitarist could make any sense out of Coding?

Depends what your passion is and how much free time you have I think. I had a coder set mine up originally and still call on him from time to time, but I am comfortable with HTML and most PHP so MQL4 is simliar, and most importantly I have small pockets of free time to apply my thoughts, improve and dabble to improve without meddling. If you have no coding background I would suggest taking a similar path and get someone to code up your idea.

I am a single parent and work full time so the small windows of opportunity where my emotions are stable and head is clear, so to make great manual trades, opportunities are limited. I wanted to take full advantage of markets sessions and 24 5 1/2 FX market. I still can't help making some manual trades now and then but they generally end up being not so wise.

Just guessing, but with the spike on the Aussie you mention, I assume some kind of Filter (excessive Range movement relative to Time perhaps??) would be needed to either close, flip or cover? Is that on the right track? Cheers.

Well only the banks know those movements are about to happen, so we (retail traders) are battling to profit from the initial move, so yes, you need to factor in such moves in design.

And analyse and measure as you go. I love my excel charts and a positive number at the end. I started logging results on a demo then used the same chart still adding live results to the same chart. My system is not affected by a change from demo to live, just one of the obstacles I was aware of that needed to be overcome early. Most trading info on forums I find boring or useless, so seeing we are talking AUDUSD thought I'd put this one pair up from my logging:
View attachment 57736
The big drop was my meddling hence affecting the trendline. If we don't measure results we are bound to repeat ourselves.

 

[cogs]

Apocalypto,

Did you get that jump on gold last night? I squeezed a bit out of it from London open to NY.

GBP (and affected pairs) are spiking around a top and could do a stop run and fake out up to 1.70ish, great opportunities for those who know what's going on.

I especially like this sloooow grind up to close the EURUSD gap.

Spot the one on EURGBP?

 

[barney]

Boys, well my return to oil&GLD was not the start i wanted at all.... mind was not there and hit 212 acc very quickly. back up to 312 atm but was ready to punch screens other day. mind is the key to this... i was doing the opposite of my demo trading... chasing trades flipping... ect ect

but picked up in the composure department and making more sensible trades...

Daily GJ just sold it... stop above the bar high.

At least you were able to turn it around while under duress ... not easy.

Barn,


Depends what your passion is and how much free time you have I think. I had a coder set mine up originally and still call on him from time to time, but I am comfortable with HTML and most PHP so MQL4 is simliar, and most importantly I have small pockets of free time to apply my thoughts, improve and dabble to improve without meddling. If you have no coding background I would suggest taking a similar path and get someone to code up your idea.

I am a single parent and work full time so the small windows of opportunity where my emotions are stable and head is clear, so to make great manual trades, opportunities are limited. I wanted to take full advantage of markets sessions and 24 5 1/2 FX market. I still can't help making some manual trades now and then but they generally end up being not so wise.


Well only the banks know those movements are about to happen, so we (retail traders) are battling to profit from the initial move, so yes, you need to factor in such moves in design.

And analyse and measure as you go. I love my excel charts and a positive number at the end. I started logging results on a demo then used the same chart still adding live results to the same chart. My system is not affected by a change from demo to live, just one of the obstacles I was aware of that needed to be overcome early. Most trading info on forums I find boring or useless, so seeing we are talking AUDUSD thought I'd put this one pair up from my logging:
The big drop was my meddling hence affecting the trendline. If we don't measure results we are bound to repeat ourselves.

Yeah, no coding experience at all. Still have a few issues to work on before having anything potentially worth coding anyway.

Highlighted a couple of your points for reference

If you are getting those "positive numbers" from your EA, it looks good!

 

[cogs]

Barn,

Did you notice the Asian play today on the EURUSD? Was a good one to get on board with.

I got my longs closed out in the gap fill.

 

[barney]

Barn,

Did you notice the Asian play today on the EURUSD? Was a good one to get on board with.

I got my longs closed out in the gap fill.

Been out scrubbing floors today Cogs

Home for a little while and trying to make some sense out of the German Import Prices dropping and the EUR and GBP spiking higher against the USD ... Crazy game this!

PS If I was going to make a guess .... Long the GBP/USD on any current retracement 8.06 pm Aussie time (short term trade)

 

[barney]

Home for a little while and trying to make some sense out of the German Import Prices dropping and the EUR and GBP spiking higher against the USD ... Crazy game this!

PS If I was going to make a guess .... Long the GBP/USD on any current retracement 8.06 pm Aussie time (short term trade)

I tried the above trade on the GBP/USD, working on the theory that if the Euro was showing strength into pretty average news, then the Pound was likely to follow through after the "euphoria" wore off especially if the EUR/GBP weakened.

As it turned out, the Pound did eventually move to the top of the small range but I had already closed the trade down as it started to look weak.

 

[barney]

One of my better entries/trades for the month .... the GBP/USD topped out and started to roll over. The Euro was also weakening against the USD while the EUR/GBP was holding its ground ...... Could be a Bread and Butter trade if patience is applied