Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Stopped pretty much right to the pip ..... re entered cause it still fits the analysis

 

[barney]

Target hit ... Trade closed ...... Some positives and negatives to take out of all that .....

Got the direction correct ... Got the initial entry pretty good ....... ran the stop too close .... Should have left the stop wider and added more on the retrace like I normally would but chickened out cause I was "showing" the trade ..... makes you more accountable but weakens the maverick element ... not sure if that's good or bad

Scraped a few pips, but not positive enough considering I had the trade reasonably well pegged ..... keep working at it!

 

[barney]

I guess I should be happy with the target price ..... It turned out to be within a couple of pips of the short term low which was based on yesterdays spike low on solid volume in the Aussie Session ..... Lucky maybe, but a pivot that looked like it needed to be respected ...

Aussie still looks weak and should test last weeks lows at some point, but half expect a bounce from there (=0.88930 ish)

 

[cogs]

Technically the AUD is very oversold, but it's clear to see the intent is to keep driving it lower until the technical signals normalise again.
Looks like it might now do some ranging to fill the gap even further, must be quite a few positions left to close out still.

 

[tech/a]

Technically the AUD is very oversold, but it's clear to see the intent is to keep driving it lower until the technical signals normalise again.

What on earth does this mean?
Who has this intent ?
What are normalized technicals ?

 

[cogs]

Asked in a bit of a cynical fashion Tech?

I understand you don't trade FX much from your postings. At the risk of getting further cynical replies I will give a brief reply.

In short some technical indicators do show the AUD as being oversold, I think most would agree, that being the case, it certainly appears the financial powers that be, want the AUD lower. The indicator I use and some other lagging indicators work in correlation with overbought oversold action, at this stage the AUD just continues to show oversold, oversold day after day with little correction taking place.

If situations like the above action, continues I tend to see my indicator 'normalise' and not give (or indicate) so such extreme oversold, overbought signals.

 

[tech/a]

Yeh it's cynical.
The way I read it there is this group who are pushing the AUD
Lower with the sole intention of " normalizing " technicals?

Fanciful

 

[barney]

Aussie has been belted ... EURO is topping ..

Looking for a short term swing/scalp on the EUR/AUD Short

Scaling in but running tight stops cause it could reverse at this early stage of a possible swing down, which is against the trend .. could go either way ... (punters trade !)

 

[barney]

Got a little underwater for a short while but still liked the trade .. added positions as per Maverick style ..... Tightened stops .. looking ok.

 

[barney]

Potentially decent trade now as the EUR/AUD can easily run 100 pips when it goes .... Stops tightened ... Wait and see.....

 

[barney]

Lol ... (Sarcastic laugh) ... Stopped out a minute or so later for pretty much a Scratch trade .... Way too much effort for no result

There will be a good Short on the EUR/AUD sometime over the next week or so .... Typically too early on my behalf ... Back to the drawing board

 

[barney]

Missed by a little bit last night even though the EUR/AUD short was good if I'd stayed up till the volume came in (I need my beauty sleep sometimes:badsmile: ..... All things aside, hindsight is useless ... I knew the time frame was not quite right and took the punt .... Some follow through on last nights price action, so ... Shorting the GBP/AUD with gusto at the moment ...... Charts later to see if it all works out

 

[barney]

Screenshot just prior to stops being taken out .....

Ended up around 20 pips positive, but finding trying to take screen shots and save positions is not easy when taking on multiple positions ........

Apologies if its all not too clear at times, but you are dealing with an amateur :

 

[barney]

Didn't like the look of the Dax at the top ...... All looks a bit shaky .... Taken a couple of Shorts ..... Expecting a retrace back into the highs but looks like some downside potential considering the amount of Longs in profit

If it struggles to move higher I might add some Short positions, but there is a bit of short term upward momentum to overcome .... Another Punt trade, but high reward to risk if it pays off

 

[barney]

Stopped on one position .... One remaining ... going ok

 

[barney]

Closed final position ... happy with that

 

[barney]

Technically the AUD is very oversold, but it's clear to see the intent is to keep driving it lower until the technical signals normalise again.
Looks like it might now do some ranging to fill the gap even further, must be quite a few positions left to close out still.

What on earth does this mean?
Who has this intent ?
What are normalized technicals ?

Sorry hadn't replied to this gentlemen but wasn't sure whether it was my place to do so .... but as I started the thread, perhaps I should ......... Bear in mind, any comments I make are to be taken with "L" plates attached (I have only been "considering" the potential of FX for 2 or 3 years and any concepts I have, have been formulated off my own slightly tangential (bent) way of thinking

Cogs ... I know you trade FX and any input is appreciated ...

In response to your question Tech .... Cogs is talking about diminishing Momentum .. Technical Indicators will "Normalise" as Momentum relaxes (regression to the mean etc etc)

Cheers gentlemen, and feel free to add any input to the thread .... I am really only doing this to make myself "wakeup" and try and stop doing dumb things ... LOL ...... (or perhaps a Less % of dumb things, cause total eradication is unlikely!!

 

[barney]

Merry Christmas to all ...

Trying a new correlation trade for the last one of the year ...

Its only a Sim trade so no real stress or value in it, but thought I'd post it cause I like the testing I've done on it so far and think there is some potential for more trades next year based around the principle

Concept is simple .... I am looking for strength or weakness in relation to the EUR and GBP ...... If I can pick a short term trend in the EUR/GBP pair, and weigh up the relative strength of the EUR and GBP against the USD .. and also the EUR and GBP against the CHF, it is possible to take a trade in the opposite direction on the GBP/CHF for example ... or even hedge a GBP/CHF long against a EUR/CHF short and swing trade for 24 hours or so

Currently seeing some slight weakness in the EUR/GBP so scaled into some Longs on the GBP/CHF ... As I say, only Sim, so only token value either way.

 

[barney]

Took this second screenshot as trade was starting to look ok ... Came back to the Chart just as the EUR/GBP started to break down ..... Next pic could be interesting

 

[barney]

Lol .... Funny how the Sim trades are always better

EUR/GBP broke down, so the GBP/CHF broke up .... Have trailed stops and have a risk free trade with some good upside potential ....

The correlation concept looks sound from my limited eyeballing so it will be interesting if I can turn this pattern into something worthwhile next year