Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Barney's Ballsups

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>Apocalypto< said:
Amazing few days Barn hope you have been with the trend.

I have been out of action since last Thursday with flu. just got back into it last night. caught some good shorts last night but cut a bit with counter attempts.

Been on the GBPJPY and DAX 90% some just jaw dropping moves with both. today no counter trades. 5/5 atm seeing what comes along.

DAX has done over 500 pts since yesterday! just crazy
Click to expand...

Been a wild old time for sure! I'm still just plodding along ... glad you had a good night:)

barney said:
Just thinking out loud, but the Pound looks long at the moment ...... Looking to build a position on either the GBP/USD, ...... or if the US dollar gains strength, the GBP/CHF ..... see what pans out:)
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In keeping with my ability to Balls things up:rolleyes: ....... I nominated my bias, and my proposed plan of attack before I opened positions, but didn't follow the plan!

No screenshots of the trades but as the charts shows I had the overall bias correct, but due to taking on too many positions prior to the retrace on both the GBP/USD and GBP/CHF (Green circles), I still managed to get myself into trouble!

Impatience, too aggressive, and making assumptions, instead of following my original idea. What should have been a productive night turned into a comedy of errors .... but I wasn't laughing:mad:

Might be time to go back to the Demo account, which is the equivalent of the "naughty corner":eek:
 

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cynic said:
...The risk management methodology includes a hedging strategy to be deployed when the open accumulated exposure reaches a certain level, until then all positions are allowed to run rampant!

Earlier this week I came to within 2 trades of deploying the hedge. So it's been a week of near misses.
...
Click to expand...
Caught short just a few too many times last night! Hedge deployed!
 
cynic said:
...
It's easy to masquerade as a champion trader when one just happens to be using a strategy that's coincidentally biased in the direction of a 15% trend!
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Well that was last week!

Masquerading as an amateur this week.

Still managing to get a few across the line, but compared to the past month, progress is somewhat sluggish.
 
dlineinvestor said:
Barney..
Do you have a favorite setup or play ... what is your approach / parameters to entering a trade.
Click to expand...

Hey "dline",

Thanks for dropping in. As far as methods go, totally discretionary, so definitely not a good role model:rolleyes::)

Currently still testing and looking for an edge in trading the correlations between the EUR/GBP, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD. All eyeball testing so takes a lot of time to get through, but definitely finding some valuable stuff.

The EUR/GBP is like a bellwether for the potential direction that either the EUR/USD or the GBP/USD is likely to follow. As always, timing the entries better will improve results exponentially. Entries are my main weakness unfortunately.

As far as patterns go ..... Simply Double tops and Double bottoms; Retests of DT's/DB's, and breakouts or failed breakouts of DT's and DB's ...... The way I see it, every pattern is just a derivative of a DT or a DB ..... all that changes is the time frame being traded.

Cheers.
 
barney said:
Hey "dline",

Thanks for dropping in. As far as methods go, totally discretionary, so definitely not a good role model:rolleyes::)

Currently still testing and looking for an edge in trading the correlations between the EUR/GBP, the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD. All eyeball testing so takes a lot of time to get through, but definitely finding some valuable stuff.

The EUR/GBP is like a bellwether for the potential direction that either the EUR/USD or the GBP/USD is likely to follow. As always, timing the entries better will improve results exponentially. Entries are my main weakness unfortunately.

As far as patterns go ..... Simply Double tops and Double bottoms; Retests of DT's/DB's, and breakouts or failed breakouts of DT's and DB's ...... The way I see it, every pattern is just a derivative of a DT or a DB ..... all that changes is the time frame being traded.

Cheers.
Click to expand...

Hi yah,
Yes you definately want to have an edge, I charted the GBP/USD on the weekend.
A trading coach I recently spoke to mentioned his signals were "blindingly simple. All of them were taken off one hour charts, once he see's potential trades he sets stop and limit order and walks away. Then moves on looking for another potential trade. Next morning day or whenever he checks to see which ones are in the money or stopped out.
I believe longer time frame signals are not only more substantial but higher probability. Take for example a double top on 2 min as opposed to double top on one hour. Obviously you would not miss the one hour. Four hour better, daily even so. Charts attached for GBP/USD
Cheers,
PS His coaching rate is 350.00/hr
 

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tech/a said:
Double Top or resisting twice at a point?

Big difference.
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Same thing, but my point is on longer time frames the signal is amplified in probability. Every trade should have a context which will make the example D top high probability or not.
In your opinion how are these different before you see more of the hard right.
 
dlineinvestor said:
Same thing, but my point is on longer time frames the signal is amplified in probability. Every trade should have a context which will make the example D top high probability or not.
In your opinion how are these different before you see more of the hard right.
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Firstly a double top needs confirmation its NOT the same thing and by the time you have confirmation the trade is a long way from a tight entry.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

A trade which resists at or around an old high in any timeframe and in particular derivatives is likely to trade just beyond it as stops are hunted. Or just below it in the big end of town are set beyond the high being tested.

The difference lies in the pivot being tested---as in is it a long term pivot over a number of timeframes.(A 1 minute which is ALSO seen in the daily as the pivot---an extreme but valid example).
Volume can also tell a tale.
As can price action at the pivot---did it take out stops and has it depleted buyers e.g. does it fall off with range on little volume.

That will be $290 I give discount to ASF members!
 
dlineinvestor said:
but my point is on longer time frames the signal is amplified in probability.
Click to expand...

How can you say that? How can a signal be improved simply by increasing the timeframe? :confused: I think that is a logical miscalculation.

Are you saying that a signal on a two minute will give you on average 20 pips and on a daily 200 pips or are you saying that the daily signal has a much higher win rate? If so got any data to back it up?
 
tech/a said:
Firstly a double top needs confirmation its NOT the same thing and by the time you have confirmation the trade is a long way from a tight entry.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

A trade which resists at or around an old high in any timeframe and in particular derivatives is likely to trade just beyond it as stops are hunted. Or just below it in the big end of town are set beyond the high being tested.

The difference lies in the pivot being tested---as in is it a long term pivot over a number of timeframes.(A 1 minute which is ALSO seen in the daily as the pivot---an extreme but valid example).
Volume can also tell a tale.
As can price action at the pivot---did it take out stops and has it depleted buyers e.g. does it fall off with range on little volume.

That will be $290 I give discount to ASF members!
Click to expand...

When I used the term D top this is a well know play as is D bottom. Traders use these for their bread and butter income. How they analyse for entry will be different in most cases.
I wanted to give a general reference to them for this thread.
If we get into the science behind the reasons for entry then we'll have to rename the thread "Barney's reason for entering thread" Everything is subjective because everyone has an opinion. "My experience longer time frames = higher probability on the signal succeeding or not.
Your services are in excess by about $289.00 ASF members deserve a better deal :D
 
dlineinvestor said:
When I used the term D top this is a well know play as is D bottom. Traders use these for their bread and butter income. How they analyse for entry will be different in most cases.
I wanted to give a general reference to them for this thread.
If we get into the science behind the reasons for entry then we'll have to rename the thread "Barney's reason for entering thread" Everything is subjective because everyone has an opinion. "My experience longer time frames = higher probability on the signal succeeding or not.
Your services are in excess by about $289.00 ASF members deserve a better deal :D
Click to expand...

Hmm time for myself to exit this thread.

I believe longer time frame signals are not only more substantial but higher probability.
You have a belief. One a few of us don't agree with.

You also have a belief that if price reaches a level twice in 2 peaks or troughs in any timeframe that constitutes a
double bottom or double top.----it doesn't. I took the time to get you a reference---please take the time to read it.

Your actually talking about a test of a pivot.

If you think about it a bit a test of a Daily pivot that sticks Or (1) of a double top as you like to call it--- will have a 1/3/5/60 min bar at the exact same pivot and it will be tested by the whole range of bars tested---which will succeed or fail.
 
tech/a said:
Hmm time for myself to exit this thread.

I believe longer time frame signals are not only more substantial but higher probability.
You have a belief. One a few of us don't agree with.

You also have a belief that if price reaches a level twice in 2 peaks or troughs in any timeframe that constitutes a
double bottom or double top.----it doesn't. I took the time to get you a reference---please take the time to read it.

Your actually talking about a test of a pivot.

If you think about it a bit a test of a Daily pivot that sticks Or (1) of a double top as you like to call it--- will have a 1/3/5/60 min bar at the exact same pivot and it will be tested by the whole range of bars tested---which will succeed or fail.
Click to expand...

:eek: I'm not referring to pivots, .... I'm discussing D top and D bot as "patterns.
What I will maintain is that "it is my experience longer time frames increase the probability these "patterns will work. Entering part position size is what I do, then add once confirmation happens, if it happens
lol I don't really need anyone to agree with me. bit like another logo saying t lines don't work
At the end of the day, a trader will use what works and bin what doesn't.
 

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