Barney's Ballsups

[cynic]

...
The DAX is so scary but also so much fun. i used to think OIL was a love hater but yeh the DAX can really test u. keep posting up your adventures.

It most certainly is! (Preaching to the choir).

Now onto trade #'s 6 & 7 - currently threatening the day's profit (several points down overall as I type).

Edit: Now 30 points down and building!

 

[cynic]

...
Now onto trade #'s 6 & 7 - currently threatening the day's profit (several points down overall as I type).

Edit: Now 30 points down and building!

Trades 6 & 7 still stuck, but managed to complete trade number 8 and am now slightly in profit for the day.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Good Stuff Cynic,

I got caught out on a buy entry. was a decent size hit for my acc size.. anyway got out of it for positive day. but i still have the same issue of not holding long enough on my winners. could have had a solid day to day if i can get over this.

I personally feel I'm scared of the DAX. i took some really mean beat downs when first started to trade on it. Think it's in my subconscious now. Think i'm done for the day... take some time out to the us session starts.

Todays trades posted below.

 

[barney]

Trades 6 & 7 still stuck, but managed to complete trade number 8 and am now slightly in profit for the day.

I have always considered that trading within ones comfort zone makes for better trading ... Your current small position sizing on this account seems to be confirming that Cynic.

I personally feel I'm scared of the DAX. i took some really mean beat downs when first started to trade on it. Think it's in my subconscious now. View attachment 59742

I totally understand that feeling Joe ... I wonder whether some of the professional traders on ASF could lend some insight on how this "fear" can be overcome .... Obviously you have been trading for a long time yet still have these doubts ...... How do we unlearn the fear and embrace the risk .... paper trading doesn't fix it! Simulation trading doesn't fix it! ... My own personal experience is to simply throw caution to the wind and try things which look slightly dodgy (on a small but real account), and weed out the good from the bad ideas ...... I have learned a lot from this, but still don't have the confidence to commit anything more than modest sums of cash to my ideas. Hats off to Pav in the sense that he has found positive expectancy in a short space of time! ...... Hints welcomed from those who have already found the lightbulb??

 

[barney]

Just on throwing caution to the wind and trying things as I mentioned in the last post ...... here is a real trade I took about half hour ago .....

The logic (if it is logic) ... The DAX has been belted unceremoniously over the last two weeks; The CAC has also been belted but on a much less % basis ....

My thinking on looking at the price action tonight .. The DAX looked like bottoming and the CAC looked less convincing ..... Therefore, if the market rises off these current lows, the DAX is likely to rise with more velocity than the CAC

Hence ...... Buy the DAX ... Short the CAC ......... No back testing to confirm or support this; just a gut feel ..... will see what pans out

 

[barney]

Hence ...... Buy the DAX ... Short the CAC ......... No back testing to confirm or support this; just a gut feel ..... will see what pans out

Position closed ........ DAX + 38 ..... CAC minus 24 .....

Nothing definitive gained from that .... both markets were trending upwards so obviously the higher ratio Index percentage on the DAX worked in my favour ....... Had it trended down I would likely have been in debit, albeit hedged against anything real nasty. Food for thought though.

 

[cynic]

I have always considered that trading within ones comfort zone makes for better trading ... Your current small position sizing on this account seems to be confirming that Cynic.

+1

The only downside to miniscule positions is that the financial reward is equally miniscule. I've managed to double my (somewhat trivial) account balance in just a little over two weeks.

I seldom achieve such high percentage returns when trading larger position sizes.

So far tonight, 19 trades :- 17 completed and 2 presently open.

 

[barney]

+1

The only downside to miniscule positions is that the financial reward is equally miniscule. I've managed to double my (somewhat trivial) account balance in just a little over two weeks.

Its interesting that as soon as we start adding zeros to our lot sizes that it suddenly becomes difficult

Its also interesting that if you doubled a $250 account 10 times in succession you would have over a quarter of a million dollars ....

 

[Jens]

Its interesting that as soon as we start adding zeros to our lot sizes that it suddenly becomes difficult

Its also interesting that if you doubled a $250 account 10 times in succession you would have over a quarter of a million dollars ....

I think the opportunity to double our accounts over and over is what keeps us going

 

[>Apocalypto<]

very interesting trade you took Barn... well done... but always keep in mind the DAX will move deeper then the CAC...

I hope it will pass in time... the DAX really did some damage to me a few times on its swings.

caught a bit of the dow open rally... that's it for me.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I think the opportunity to double our accounts over and over is what keeps us going

personally i think doing in on tiny accounts is ok but once you are using a decent amount it's something that should be a major warning.

 

[barney]

very interesting trade you took Barn... well done... but always keep in mind the DAX will move deeper then the CAC...I hope it will pass in time... the DAX really did some damage to me a few times on its swings.

caught a bit of the dow open rally... that's it for me.

Yeah true ...... The trade was a kind of semi baked attempt at picking the short term direction of the Dax with a hedge/reverse trade on the CAC .....

If I'd gotten the DAX side wrong it wouldn't have worked, although having the hedge initially let me enter the trade earlier than I would with just a one way ticket on the DAX, so for someone like me who struggles with entries it might have some use

A better pair would probably be the CAC + FTSE as their Index value is closer, although that would also negate the value in the bias of the trade.

The above idea is probably more suited to trading the EUR against the GBP as they are fairly correlated but also often out of rotation with each other .... still working on that one but finding some interesting stats.

 

[barney]

I think the opportunity to double our accounts over and over is what keeps us going

Welcome Jens ..... feel free to throw in some trades if you like.

 

[cynic]

Yes! The Achilles heel of this strategy will be the sudden recovery. Sooner or later ...(preferably later) I will get caught short!!
...

Well it had to happen eventually! Trade #'s 30,31,33 and 34 all caught!!

If they can find another half dozen shorts to share in their misery, it'll be time for deployment of the hedging component of this strategy!

Stay tuned for further updates on this exciting development!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Yeah true ...... The trade was a kind of semi baked attempt at picking the short term direction of the Dax with a hedge/reverse trade on the CAC .....

If I'd gotten the DAX side wrong it wouldn't have worked, although having the hedge initially let me enter the trade earlier than I would with just a one way ticket on the DAX, so for someone like me who struggles with entries it might have some use

A better pair would probably be the CAC + FTSE as their Index value is closer, although that would also negate the value in the bias of the trade.

The above idea is probably more suited to trading the EUR against the GBP as they are fairly correlated but also often out of rotation with each other .... still working on that one but finding some interesting stats.

on the profit... i used take a few on the CAC but i would fall a sleep waiting for it to do something. end of the day you made a right call. but you're right on the reverse CAC normally is playing catch up... that being said.. the Dow atm is the hard one. swinging 16-20+ points on open yesterday. I have noticed for a while now the DOW has some serious run in it. Also a can be cleaner then the DAX.

agree FTSE and CAC better pair. personally i have never understood and really tried hedging trades. alot use it. i never got it.

Just took a trade on the HK50 like the look of it but the 8 point spread is the issue trading it for me. think there a market you would need a real futures account for. When i had my IB account i traded the KOPSI a few times... that's a hair raiser. just bangs up or down.

keep tiring things...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Welcome Jens ..... feel free to throw in some trades if you like.

Plus 2 Jens

 

[barney]

... i used take a few on the CAC but i would fall a sleep waiting for it to do something.

. the Dow atm is the hard one. swinging 16-20+ points on open yesterday. I have noticed for a while now the DOW has some serious run in it. Also a can be cleaner then the DAX.

agree FTSE and CAC better pair. personally i have never understood and really tried hedging trades. alot use it. i never got it.

Lol re the CAC ...... it's been moving around a lot more lately. Only 4000 tick Index but its way better than the SPI.

Yeah if you can snag a runner on the Dow it can be I can vaguely remember what that feels like

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Lol re the CAC ...... it's been moving around a lot more lately. Only 4000 tick Index but its way better than the SPI.

Yeah if you can snag a runner on the Dow it can be I can vaguely remember what that feels like

just got to stay up to late to trade it now with DS....

DAX open has been horrible. hope now one was try to sell lows or buy highs some evil counter runs.

 

[cynic]

Well it had to happen eventually! Trade #'s 30,31,33 and 34 all caught!!

Just managed to close 1 of the caught shorts! (1 down, another 3 to go!)

A very slow evening - only 1 trade completed thus far.

Edit: Trade #2 for the night opened as I was posting.

 

[cynic]

Just managed to close 1 of the caught shorts! (1 down, another 3 to go!)

A very slow evening - only 1 trade completed thus far.

Edit: Trade #2 for the night opened as I was posting.

Gap fill to the rescue!!

(2 down 2 to go!)

Trade #'s 1 & 2 for the night now closed. # 3 just opened.

Edit: #3 just closed.