Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Dline, Tech and TH,

I appreciate you guys slugging it out, and how each trader trades DT's and DB's is a whole bigger ball game ....

I was simply stating that (in my opinion), DT's and DB's are constantly being formed in all time frames, and all other chart patterns are derivatives of that one pattern. Obviously my interpretation is not text book, but that doesn't change the way I look at it.

I'm more interested in the relativity of one FX pair to another when a DT or DB is formed, or even more importantly, when a spike High or spike Low is rejected after a DT/DB

I can only eyeball test cause I'm too old and dumb to work out how to drive Excel, but I reckon the rejected spike (often a HH or LL after a DT/DB) is where the real money is to be made in FX.

Hopefully the couple of charts are self explanatory.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Yep, probably hundreds and hundreds of back tests. Increasing the bar time doesn't make it a 'better' signal.

I think if you took the time to test your ideas you would get a very different idea from what you think is logical.

mate, Nobody backtests d tops or d bottoms, give us a break.
They just are : a major "pattern signal that millions of ppl take in in every conceivable market world wide.
Some times they work sometimes they don't. I don't care, either way I take them when I feel it's appropriate and then manage the outcome.

"I simply mention "it's my opinion "on longer time frames that I find them to be more reliable. "my" input to Barney's thread, nothing illogical about that.

 

[Weatsop]

I'm not referring to pivots, .... I'm discussing D top and D bot as "patterns.
What I will maintain is that "it is my experience longer time frames increase the probability these "patterns will work. Entering part position size is what I do, then add once confirmation happens, if it happens
lol I don't really need anyone to agree with me. bit like another logo saying t lines don't work
At the end of the day, a trader will use what works and bin what doesn't.

Sometimes it helps if someone translates?

...assuming I understand the duck here...

1. There are pivot points you try to predict in advance (there are a bunch of ways) - but you can also see them retroactively, whether they fit an "indicator" or not. A double-top, by definition, always occurs at a pivot point. It MAKES that point a pivot. Strong resistance can be a pivot point. Maybe not the "indicator" kind, maybe it's not something you had marked up on your chart, but it's the point at which a reversal occurs, or could occur. So after it happens, it becomes a pivot point.

2. A double-top isn't a double-top until it's been confirmed later on by a break below the trough (and a few other things - I'm horribly ignorant about volume and the book). Two (or more) tries to breach resistance may BECOME a double-top, and it may not. But how you trade resistance is different to how you trade a double-top.

Plus, plenty (most) resistance bouncing *can't* be a double top. It can't meet the criteria.

So if you're entering one position, then a second once a double-top is confirmed, isn't that actually one resistance play, and one double-top entry? Wouldn't you manage each one quite differently?

Like, wouldn't you expect to have exited that first position *before* the double-top is confirmed, most of the time?

 

[dlineinvestor]

Dline, Tech and TH,

I appreciate you guys slugging it out, and how each trader trades DT's and DB's is a whole bigger ball game ....

I was simply stating that (in my opinion), DT's and DB's are constantly being formed in all time frames, and all other chart patterns are derivatives of that one pattern. Obviously my interpretation is not text book, but that doesn't change the way I look at it.

I'm more interested in the relativity of one FX pair to another when a DT or DB is formed, or even more importantly, when a spike High or spike Low is rejected after a DT/DB

I can only eyeball test cause I'm too old and dumb to work out how to drive Excel, but I reckon the rejected spike (often a HH or LL after a DT/DB) is where the real money is to be made in FX.

Hopefully the couple of charts are self explanatory.

.... Barney ! this is what I'm talking about, thanks for the chart.
That pattern you see is a classic classic d top retest go short signal ..... imo u won't get better than that
Once again my opinion for chr!st sake ...
Don't want anyone else getting their nickers in a knot, great thread barney glad to be a part

 

[Weatsop]

mate, Nobody backtests d tops or d bottoms, give us a break.

Why *wouldn't* you backtest double tops?

I don't... What? I really don't understand. I'm starting to think everyone is using a subtly different language.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Sometimes it helps if someone translates?

...assuming I understand the duck here...

1. There are pivot points you try to predict in advance (there are a bunch of ways) - but you can also see them retroactively, whether they fit an "indicator" or not. A double-top, by definition, always occurs at a pivot point. It MAKES that point a pivot. Strong resistance can be a pivot point. Maybe not the "indicator" kind, maybe it's not something you had marked up on your chart, but it's the point at which a reversal occurs, or could occur. So after it happens, it becomes a pivot point.

2. A double-top isn't a double-top until it's been confirmed later on by a break below the trough (and a few other things - I'm horribly ignorant about volume and the book). Two (or more) tries to breach resistance may BECOME a double-top, and it may not. But how you trade resistance is different to how you trade a double-top.

Plus, plenty (most) resistance bouncing *can't* be a double top. It can't meet the criteria.

So if you're entering one position, then a second once a double-top is confirmed, isn't that actually one resistance play, and one double-top entry? Wouldn't you manage each one quite differently?

Like, wouldn't you expect to have exited that first position *before* the double-top is confirmed, most of the time?

Intelligence and Diplomacy well done +1 weatsop

 

[Weatsop]

Intelligence and Diplomacy well done +1 weatsop

My mum is right: I'm lovely.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Make sure to give her the link
Someone tell me the short entry in the chart is a legitimate crap short entry and I'll shut up. lol

 

[Trembling Hand]

A trading coach I recently spoke

PS His coaching rate is 350.00/hr

mate, Nobody backtests d tops or d bottoms, give us a break.


"I simply mention "it's my opinion "on longer time frames that I find them to be more reliable.

Dude....... wonder what would be cheaper,

 

[tech/a]

Make sure to give her the link
Someone tell me the short entry in the chart is a legitimate crap short entry and I'll shut up. lol

OK

This guy is world renowned.

http://thepatternsite.com/Busted.html
Check out his busted section and the patterns
Double tops
And Double bottoms.

You can even score your setup.
http://thepatternsite.com/scaadt.html

Like all patterns they are a legitimate setup.
But there is more to them than just an opinion.
There are and has been a great deal of research on 1000s of patterns.
Everyone wants an edge.

You have a lot to learn.

 

[barney]

Intelligence and Diplomacy well done +1 weatsop

As usual Weatsop, a quality post

My mum is right: I'm lovely.

But can we trust your Mum:

Dude....... wonder what would be cheaper,

I've been here for a while so I understand that comment for the way its meant ..... a little bit "smarty ask", but at the same time trying to be helpful

Dline, I think what people may have missed in your "promotion" of DT's etc. is that you do wait for confirmation and trade the second leg down, so effectively you are doing exactly as many others would be endorsing. All the angst you are getting probably should be directed at me because I am trying to fabricate a method of actually entering Short at the highest recent high which is both counter intuitive and risky ...... or is it ... testing continues ... geez I wish I could drive excel

Like all patterns they are a legitimate setup.
But there is more to them than just an opinion.

Tech I think Dline has shown in his above example that he is likely trading these positions very similar to what you would do, yes/no?? ........ i.e. DT ... confirmation ... take the secondary Short break.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Hi all ....
See chart this is what I mean no more no less
It is an "excellent" short entry ... I don't need to back test what's making me money.
"Barney no angst here .... I like this thread and I'm 100 % in helping you in any way I can.

 

[Weatsop]

All the angst you are getting probably should be directed at me because I am trying to fabricate a method of actually entering Short at the highest recent high which is both counter intuitive and risky ...... or is it ... testing continues ... geez I wish I could drive excel

I can only speak from a forex point of view, and forex is as dumb as it gets...

(And I'll point out right now that having gotten back into it recently - fresh eyes and all that - and having spent a lot of time reading about other ways of trading, it's finally occurred to me to ask myself why the hell I'm still trying to trade forex?)

...going short near the top isn't a bad idea, depending on how you do it, and assuming your first priority is to scalp something little. And I wouldn't short the high when it's made, since, yeah, that's when it's gapping along up and you'll get murdered.

What I do is to wait for a reasonable line of resistance to build - noting that a new high or low is often punched *through* the "real" line of resistance. Being a dope who pretty much self-taught, I call that a stab. There's the resistance, the skin, in a line across there, and that bit there was a stab through the resistance, which failed and fell. It's actually a stronger indication of resistance that a thick band, in my (limited) experience - at least, my stab-recognition is giving higher numbers than my band-recognition.

ANYWAY. How do you know where that real line was? You need to wait for a pullback, then a re-test. Often there's a spike up that gets about as high as the first. That's probably tradeable (honestly I don't have a good handle on it, running at a touch less than breakeven on that one), but the best kind is where you get a band forming a good line, that agrees with a band or other resistance from before the stab. That's golden-delicious.

It's not a head-and-shoulders (assuming I actually understand what that is - like I said, I only recently started digging into what other people call patterns), it's just a nice clear stab through a clear line of skin.

Then you can easily get in close to the top, with a stop juuuuust above the line (so, maybe 2 pips), and you've got most of the distance to the bottom of that band to pick up a scalp. I'll usually run a stop just above (half a pip) the high of the last bar, which loses a little in the band, but keeps me in if it runs a bit.

You just have to make sure the thickness of the band is enough to justify your stop. Like, if you'll need a 2 pip stop, and the band is only 4 pips wide, given you'll only get 3 pips of it most of the time, it's not worth the risk. But in EUR/USD bands are often a good 6-8 pips wide.

This isn't a great example, but it's on the chart right now, so:



So this one stabbed up through twice, but you can see the skin pretty clearly.

In this case the band is not really wide enough for me to trade, but the resistance level is really clear - it's not the stabs, it's the skin. So you could short it at the skin, hop out if a bar turns back too far, but otherwise look to be on a break down a few pips early. Low risk setup, looking to make some pips inside the band, and giving it enough room to be on a break down.

...or you could look to short a break down below the band. There's sort of a stab through skin there, too. I'm just not nearly as good at trading that sort of thing - it's not nearly as clear to me there, without a new high or low or obvious line of something-something nearby to be moving away from...

---
BUT ALSO: after a big move I've got a pattern I call "smooth turn", which is really just a smooth slowdown (not jerking around and skipping over too many price points), lows coming up, then a small bar or two.

Then I can short on the break below those one or two little bars.

If they're big bars, flying all over the place, like an angry zebra on crack, then I stay the hell out of it.

That's actually running on only 3 stopped out, out of 15 tries, with 65 pips profit after commissions. Only, yeah, that's a laughably small number, and whenever I eyeball old charts I can see way more failed trades than wins - and it's been really easy to program into Amibroker, who also says a big fat no.

I'm not sure if I'm judging the mood well when I'm live - if that lack of jerkiness is a major factor - or if I've just been lucky.


*I should mention that's all on the 1-minutes, with looks at bigger time-frames for the simplest identification of obvious lines.

 

[dlineinvestor]

You have a lot to learn.

"surely you mean "we all have allot to learn " you can include yourself if your up to it .

 

[tech/a]

"surely you mean "we all have allot to learn " you can include yourself if your up to it .

No----I mean you.
I've learnt what I need to know.
At 60 if you don't know----you'll never know.

 

[barney]

At 60 if you don't know----you'll never know.

Nah that's not true Tech ....

What if you only started learning at 58 or 59?

If you (not you personally) are 60 and think you know all you need to know, I'd suggest you are either fooling yourself, or stuck in your ways. (My old man springs to mind ..... ps. My old man is a champion, but he used to think he knew everything ....... then he got to 75 and realised he knew bugger all) ..... Now he's 85 and starting to learn stuff again!!


ps. Just on a totally unrelated issue .... I have been trading absolute cr@p tonight while trying to post etc ...... I AM the worlds worst trader ..... (sometimes)

 

[tech/a]

Nah that's not true Tech ....

What if you only started learning at 58 or 59?

If you (not you personally) are 60 and think you know all you need to know, I'd suggest you are either fooling yourself, or stuck in your ways. (My old man springs to mind ..... ps. My old man is a champion, but he used to think he knew everything ....... then he got to 75 and realised he knew bugger all) ..... Now he's 85 and starting to learn stuff again!!


ps. Just on a totally unrelated issue .... I have been trading absolute cr@p tonight while trying to post etc ...... I AM the worlds worst trader ..... (sometimes)

I'd say you've wasted a lifetime.
Many don't reach 60.

I certainly do not know everything.
You can learn at any age.

But I do know what I need to know.
If you or anyone else don't know what they
Need to know-----

Think about it!

 

[barney]

I'd say you've wasted a lifetime.
Many don't reach 60.

I certainly do not know everything.
You can learn at any age.

But I do know what I need to know.
If you or anyone else don't know what they
Need to know-----

Think about it!

Yeah I know. I just wanted to make you philosophical cause you are much nicer that way:

Here's what I know at "not quite 60" in order of importance .....

My Family (Wife and Kids) are the most important thing in my life. Without them life would be empty.

I wish I was healthier.

I know a lot but I readily admit I know very little.

I wish I knew what I know now 40 years ago!

Mortality is real !!

 

[dlineinvestor]

Barney once again great thread, from the chart you've posted I reposted it and outlined in the white where the best entry would be. I have seen this pattern many times and on many time frames. Can you see the psychology behind the price action and the why it finally breaks down.
You get the timing right and it's money in the bank my friend.
Most threads go off topic at some point not your fault ... but as long as I've been able to show you another perspective on some thing my job is done here.

 

[Weatsop]

I'd say you've wasted a lifetime.
Many don't reach 60.

I certainly do not know everything.
You can learn at any age.

But I do know what I need to know.
If you or anyone else don't know what they
Need to know-----

Think about it!

I'm with you, Tech. Something about being older make us think... longer term. It doesn't make sense - we get less time, but we appreciate the long play all the more. We learn better. I get to see what an idiot I was for the last bunch of years. It's almost a tragedy...

And I reckon I just started learning, really learning. Weeks ago. Not even years. Just weeks. Don't take that above as a claim. I only just realised how ****ing ignorant I am. I can envy folk like you. Aspire, even.

But I have time.

...look hard at advances in bio (as I did for a lot of hours, in my last couple of jobs) and you'll see - if you can last another 20 years, you might just last another 100. And if you can last 100, you might just get to go as long as you decide to go.

And look at history. Look at look at all the rich and powerful falling off, just as they gain something like wisdom.

The world in fifty years will be unrecognisable. And it won't be the young, anymore, who can leverage all that energy to master the new ways. Energy won't matter.

What'll matter is adaptation. Adaptation, and discipline. Maybe I'm getting all melodramatic here, but: get rich, and hold on. Because it's the people who can take a lifetime of learning, and those who can adapt enough to keep it relevant, who will own this time we're about to hit.