Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

just got to stay up to late to trade it now with DS....

DAX open has been horrible. hope now one was try to sell lows or buy highs some evil counter runs.

The first 2-3 hours of the Dax is always hard to nail I reckon ...... sometimes easier to pick it when the Dow preopen starts to take shape ..... only sometimes

Gap fill to the rescue!!

Just about to say you should be out of trouble now

The last run down on the CAC also got me out of jail for the night after I stuffed up a few earlier

 

[barney]

Just for my own records ......

Amongst a lot of good trades, I made a couple of very ordinary trades tonight which wiped out all my winners plus some .....

What I did wrong ...... I took a hedge position instead of setting a stop loss when I went to have dinner. The position went against me and cost me 19 ticks ..... no big deal on my test account, but still not good trading.

Got out of jail on the trade below, but even then I started thinking impulsively when the first position went immediately against me for a minute or so .... can't afford to be impulsive!!

In the end I made 12 ticks for the night, but a couple of bad habits started creeping back in, so I gauge tonight as lucky, not clever

One thing I did do was close the Shorts almost to the tick bottom as the downside momentum came to a halt so the "feel" was much better on the exit.

 

[Jens]

I have been a member of this forum for a couple of months now. Some threads are interesting reading. I have had an interest in trading for years. Initially, it was stocks/CFD's and futures medium to long term investing. That was too slow for me and I was going crazy, waiting to find out if I made a good call or not
Then I went to trading forex and gold off 1 & 2 min charts, which was just as crazy. Now I am getting more and more comfortable with forex and gold on 15 min charts, backed up by 1 hour charts as well. I have been through all the indicators I could possible find in cyberspace and trying to get a different result from doing the same thing :bonk:
Now I have settled on SMA's only. Mainly 25, with 100 & 300 being secondary. I find, if SMA 25 is trending strongly, then it is time to look for entry signals...the trick then is to wait for those signals to form and not jump the gun.
Lessons, that I am FINALLY learning:
1: I don't have to trade everyday...there is a new day tomorrow...no trade is better than a bad trade
2: After taking a loss...it is silly (to say it mildly) to have the mindset "I am going to get you back"
3: Be extra cautious when trading on a Friday. The worst feeling must be to turn a profitable week into a loss on a Friday night. That is never a good weekend utthedoor:

So...that is where I am at!

 

[barney]

So...that is where I am at!

Yeah we are all in the same boat Jens ...... Ironing out the bugs, and controlling the demons



ps. Update on tonight's trading ....... I managed to screw up the next round of trades to finish minus 4 for the night That's enough ballsups for one night! Sleep is a better option.

 

[cynic]

Gap fill to the rescue!!

(2 down 2 to go!)

Trade #'s 1 & 2 for the night now closed. # 3 just opened.

Edit: #3 just closed.

Quite an interesting night.

Fewer trades, but the redemption of the hostage shorts was ample compensation.

Altogether a total of 14 trades closed for the night (the 4 caught shorts and 10 subsequent trades).

There are now no open positions (on this particular forex account) and the prized 100% strike rate remains intact! (Steep downtrends do tend to be very forgiving when one is shorting the market.)

 

[lesm]

I have always considered that trading within ones comfort zone makes for better trading ... Your current small position sizing on this account seems to be confirming that Cynic.



I totally understand that feeling Joe ... I wonder whether some of the professional traders on ASF could lend some insight on how this "fear" can be overcome .... Obviously you have been trading for a long time yet still have these doubts ...... How do we unlearn the fear and embrace the risk .... paper trading doesn't fix it! Simulation trading doesn't fix it! ... My own personal experience is to simply throw caution to the wind and try things which look slightly dodgy (on a small but real account), and weed out the good from the bad ideas ...... I have learned a lot from this, but still don't have the confidence to commit anything more than modest sums of cash to my ideas. Hats off to Pav in the sense that he has found positive expectancy in a short space of time! ...... Hints welcomed from those who have already found the lightbulb??

Barney you may like to read the following article via the link below:

'The Secret to Breaking the Code to Successful Trading Under Pressure'

http://www.fxtradermagazine.com/online-edition.php

 

[barney]

Barney you may like to read the following article via the link below:

'The Secret to Breaking the Code to Successful Trading Under Pressure'

http://www.fxtradermagazine.com/online-edition.php

Thanks for that link Les ...... Some very informative stuff in that publication ... and its free?

The psychological makeup of a trader is critical I think. Personally I don't think I have a good psycho makeup to be a trader, but I reckon I have improved enough in the last few months to still give me hope

Trading under pressure is probably one of the things I have actually personally improved recently so the article makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately because I am not a well regimented person, I trade almost exclusively discretionary, which means I get myself into a lot of trouble at times

Just in respect to the above, the old adage of "cut your losses" are generally wise words, although often easier said than done ..... The other side of that coin of course is, that we might be cutting those losses just at the time we should have been entering in the first place (particularly if you take poor entries like I do at times!)......, therefore, adding to a position might actually be a smarter way to salvage the trade .......

I'm not sure if the above is classed as trading "better" under pressure, but I have noticed that when I take a back seat and try and calmly assess a trade which has taken a turn for the worse, the trade generally turns out better ..... but not always

Cheers Les .... appreciate your input.

 

[Weatsop]

Howdy Barney - enjoying your thread!

As requested, here's a very brief guide to a very basic scalp:

Scalping mostly comes down to massive amounts of screen time (though happily surprised at how easy the rust comes off). Plus, unlike other strategies, scalping isn't eliminated by lots of people doing the same - so much is gut instinct that everyone's orders would spread over a few pips at least.

Right now I'm *not* profitable, since I'm only on demo accounts. Planning to fund in a week, and if I can get results for the two weeks after, then I'll cheerfully come back and explain it. If I did it now it'd be a bit of a fraud, since yeah, it's been years since I traded.

I'll leave you with this simple one, though: check the 1-minutes for EUR/USD, and look for horizontal bands maybe 5 pips wide, that go for 5 minutes or more. Note that when they break these dead-simple bands, they tend to move pretty hard. Plonk a stop-sell under the band, and a stop-buy above it.

Once you're in the trade, keep your stop at the back of the last minute (so when a minute closes and a new one starts, bring your stop to the lowest low of that just-ended minute, if long, or the highest high, if short). See how many profitable trades there are to be had.

There's a lot of other stuff going on, and there's a lot of finesse on entry and exit I'll come back and explain later, and there are a few other entries I use, but that very simple entry and exit is my bread and butter. The nice thing about the exit is that you'll usually ride the big moves - I picked up 30 pips last night on one trade, which is golden for scalping.

Couple of points about timing: do this after the European open, up to the US open (so 5-6pm until about 11pm, where slightly different strategies apply). And wait for there to have been some profitable trades on the board before you enter - sometimes this trade doesn't work, conditions aren't right. Wait 'till they're right, then go. And later if you lose some trades, sit back again and wait until things settle down. Patience is a big part of it.

You need a broker, though, that'll leave you a profit on a 4 pip move, preferably a pip or more after commission / added spread. You're aiming at more (usually in the 7-10 range), but there are plenty of trades that go wrong, and I like to have my stop pretty tight. I traded with IB who had 0.2 pip commission, usually a 0.5 pip spread (and sometimes less). Really don't know if I can do this with other brokers at 1 pip spreads...

Anyway! Like I said: take that with a huge grain of salt, because I haven't done a trade like that with real money behind it for a few years. I'll go into epic detail in a few weeks if I can do well - but that's enough to try out on a paper account in the meantime.

 

[barney]

Howdy Barney - enjoying your thread!
Anyway! Like I said: take that with a huge grain of salt, because I haven't done a trade like that with real money behind it for a few years. I'll go into epic detail in a few weeks if I can do well - but that's enough to try out on a paper account in the meantime.

Thanks for that "Weat"

M8, I still consider myself a pretty ordinary Trader, but I know when the "grain of salt" is talking sense

I'm sure there are many here who will look forward to your future input

Cheers.

 

[Weatsop]

And, and about trading psychology: for me, the beautiful trade, even better than when it goes running off and makes my week in a few minutes, is when I get my exit stop just right.

If the price comes down and kisses my stop a bunch of times, honestly, I don't even care so much if the trade ends up going bad later. The fact that my stop was right for so long, was perfectly on the edge of the price action, that tells me I'm reading the market right. If the price goes below that stop, I want to be out of the trade, because now I don't know what's happening. As long as it stays above, the market is still deciding, so I want to stay in, in case I get another good run.

I can often see areas of decision, where it'll stay in that area for a while, and if it goes wrong (50%) I'll lose 5 pips, but if it goes right (50%) I'll get 10. And if my judgement is right, *even if it's one of the trades that lose*, just being able to judge that trade correctly gives me a real sense of satisfaction.

You can make a profitable career if you lose 45% of the time - or even if you lose 70% of the time, if your losers are a lot less than your winners.

Losing is easy if it's all part of the plan!

It's not super accurate, but it's a good motto to have in scalping (as long as you know when to ignore it): if the trade isn't going your way, it's going the wrong way. Get out.

 

[barney]

when I get my exit stop just right

I want to be out of the trade, because now I don't know what's happening[/B].

Gold ..... thanks for that

 

[lesm]

Thanks for that link Les ...... Some very informative stuff in that publication ... and its free?

Yes, it's free.

As long as you found the article useful.

 

[cynic]

What a night!!

Just opened trade # 22. (#'s 1-21 already completed.)

 

[cynic]

What a night!!

Just opened trade # 22. (#'s 1-21 already completed.)

The night ended with 47 trades completed, and I am somewhat pleased that this particular FX account's 100% strike rate remains intact.

Many an experienced trader will recognise that this outcome is largely attributable to some coincidentally favourable market conditions, rather than the merits of this particular (short flavoured) trading strategy.

Larger downtrends tend to increase the likelihood of sizable future retracements (the eventuation of which could severely erode the accumulated profits) so it's still too early to celebrate the victory!

 

[barney]

The night ended with 47 trades completed, and I am somewhat pleased that this particular FX account's 100% strike rate remains intact.

Many an experienced trader will recognise that this outcome is largely attributable to some coincidentally favourable market conditions, rather than the merits of this particular (short flavoured) trading strategy.

Larger downtrends tend to increase the likelihood of sizable future retracements (the eventuation of which could severely erode the accumulated profits) so it's still too early to celebrate the victory!

47 from 47 Cynic ..... Are you running any stops at all, or just discretionary, or just averaging down due to the small position size? ..... Either way, if it works, and you ran the same system with a 100X starting Bank, you might be on to something. Then again, a 100X starting Bank adds psychological pressure as any potential loss starts to mean something (unless you are a MacMillionaire of course)

 

[barney]

Opened a couple of minis to test the water on the GBP/USD (short) when the EUR/GBP was behaving a bit countersunk to the EUR/USD.

From my humble testing, (and pre the big move times of night), the EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP will often work against each other and that is often a "safe" time to trade the Pound/USD relative to the EUR/GBP

Closed the trade immediately the EUR/GBP started misbehaving to the downside, so happy with all of that .. +11 pips (I'm retiring next week, lol )

 

[cynic]

47 from 47 Cynic ..... Are you running any stops at all, or just discretionary, or just averaging down due to the small position size? ..... Either way, if it works, and you ran the same system with a 100X starting Bank, you might be on to something. Then again, a 100X starting Bank adds psychological pressure as any potential loss starts to mean something (unless you are a MacMillionaire of course)

Apologies for the tardiness of my reply.

These past few days I've had major computer issues on my main pc and subsequently my contingency PC. Transitioning from XP to windows has been nothing short of an IT nightmare of mammoth proportions and my contempt for Microsoft now knows no bounds!

The only stops that have been run were accidental stop entries (fortunately these ballsups turned benign).

The risk management methodology includes a hedging strategy to be deployed when the open accumulated exposure reaches a certain level, until then all positions are allowed to run rampant!

Earlier this week I came to within 2 trades of deploying the hedge. So it's been a week of near misses.

It's easy to masquerade as a champion trader when one just happens to be using a strategy that's coincidentally biased in the direction of a 15% trend!

 

[barney]

Apologies for the tardiness of my reply.

It's easy to masquerade as a champion trader when one just happens to be using a strategy that's coincidentally biased in the direction of a 15% trend!

No apologies required around here Cynic ..... glad you've had a good couple of weeks, apart from the computer problems

 

[barney]

Just thinking out loud, but the Pound looks long at the moment ...... Looking to build a position on either the GBP/USD, ...... or if the US dollar gains strength, the GBP/CHF ..... see what pans out

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Amazing few days Barn hope you have been with the trend.

I have been out of action since last Thursday with flu. just got back into it last night. caught some good shorts last night but cut a bit with counter attempts.

Been on the GBPJPY and DAX 90% some just jaw dropping moves with both. today no counter trades. 5/5 atm seeing what comes along.

DAX has done over 500 pts since yesterday! just crazy