Barney's Ballsups

[barney]

Short GBP/USD ....... Looks short term "fake" ......

 

[barney]

Closed ... one of my better trades ......

Took a re-entry on the same trade .... being belted on that ..

Took a "hedge" Short on the EUR/USD to ride out the EUR/GBP retrace ......... What was it TH said ... "Don't hedge ..ever!!" ......

Only playing for peanuts here, but still want to try and save this last leg ....... USD looks a bit stronger than the others so might get a final move down on either the GBP or EUR to salvage the trade.


edit ... Closed both Short legs on the Pound and Euro ... Loss 22 pips .. crap trade ...... Good thing is since the close both moved way further against me so good timing on the exit at least

 

[barney]

edit ... Closed both Short legs on the Pound and Euro ... Loss 22 pips .. crap trade ...... Good thing is since the close both moved way further against me so good timing on the exit at least

Bad hedge position closed as previous post .....

 

[barney]

I screwed up a lot of trades tonight getting whipsawed into oblivion trying to trade one minute charts without using any common sense ..... Minus 180 pips at that point

I left the room, went to the dunny, practiced my ever increasing Forex induced vocabulary of expletives, made a cup of milo, went back to the Charts and finally got in tune with what was going on.

I took two mini EUR/USD short positions initially as the Euro looked a bit weak .... When the EUR/GBP started to weaken from the top and the GBP/USD didn't follow complementary suit to the upside, that meant the USD was the stronger currency (short term) ....

Took another two quick short positions on the EUR/USD just as it started to roll over ..... Covered the previous 180 pip loss plus added another 100 pips all in under 15 minutes ....... Happy to cover the bad trades but still annoyed at the initial poor trading ... should know better by now!

Anyway ... one of my best efforts for some time ... Quick decisions made without hesitation and in tune with the market sentiment. (added second image for clarity)

 

[>Apocalypto<]

hi Barn,

you sold the NFPs tonight! well done never easy to forecast. good on you for making it back it's a nice feeling.

TBH, i have also had a roller coaster week. mixing 1 hour fx with 5min dax and dow on IC.

made some great trades and some terrible ones. last two days getting somewhere on the 5 min indices fx has been hard work.

apart from a few dumb fx trades last night and a bad entry on the FTSE tonight de30 and dow have been spot on last 2 days. dax was off tonight german bank holiday so thought i would look at the FTSE as pav is making a killing on it. too slow and quiet for my liking.

attached is a chart of the week think you can see the swings.... mentally testing once this week. still using a few AB set ups but more adaption of my 1 hour momentum trading on the 5 min.

2 weeks of profits now in a row on 95% due to the 5 min DAX & DOW. remember daylight saving starts this weekend.

i'm out week over for me.

 

[barney]

hi Barn,

you sold the NFPs tonight! well done never easy to forecast. good on you for making it back it's a nice feeling.

TBH, i have also had a roller coaster week. mixing 1 hour fx with 5min dax and dow on IC.

made some great trades and some terrible ones. last two days getting somewhere on the 5 min indices fx has been hard work.

apart from a few dumb fx trades last night and a bad entry on the FTSE tonight de30 and dow have been spot on last 2 days. dax was off tonight german bank holiday so thought i would look at the FTSE as pav is making a killing on it. too slow and quiet for my liking.

attached is a chart of the week think you can see the swings.... mentally testing once this week. still using a few AB set ups but more adaption of my 1 hour momentum trading on the 5 min.

2 weeks of profits now in a row on 95% due to the 5 min DAX & DOW. remember daylight saving starts this weekend.

i'm out week over for me.

Hey Joe,

Yeah I know that roller coaster feeling well I think treading water is not bad though as long as there is mental progress.

NFP was a strong result. The USD has been on a bender all night.

If you save any screenshots, throw up a couple more charts/trades if you get a chance. Any of the Dax or Dow would be good

 

[cynic]

...apart from a few dumb fx trades last night and a bad entry on the FTSE tonight de30 and dow have been spot on last 2 days. dax was off tonight german bank holiday so thought i would look at the FTSE as pav is making a killing on it. too slow and quiet for my liking.
...

I just completed my first few trades for the quarter on the FTSE this week, and I must confess that other indices are boringly slow and difficult to adjust to after trading the demonic DAX.

On the subject of ballsups, I think I may have made my first one on a forex account I opened just last month. Fortunately I was only trading miniscule position sizes on their Germany 30 product (0.1 EUR per point).

The last position opened was a short that narrowly missed its profit target, but was still a few points in profit when I checked on it during the wee early hours of friday morning.

Not realising that there was a holiday in Germany that would render me unable to trade again until monday, I chose to leave the position open!!!

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Not realising that there was a holiday in Germany that would render me unable to trade again until monday, I chose to leave the position open!!!

Surely it will be okay with the way the US finished though? Should gap higher....as long as there is no bad news over the weekend that is.

 

[cynic]

Surely it will be okay with the way the US finished though? Should gap higher....as long as there is no bad news over the weekend that is.

It's a short position! If it weren't so small, I'd be praying for bad news!!

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

It's a short position! If it weren't so small, I'd be praying for bad news!!

Oh bugger

 

[barney]

Oh bugger

Bugger indeed

It's a short position! If it weren't so small, I'd be praying for bad news!!

Hi Cynic ..... Your unfortunate example is what this thread is all about ... the good the bad and the ugly

Now that you are in that position, do you have an escape plan?

ie. Chances are the Dax will gap up substantially against you .. Do you close at the open; do you wait; how long do you wait; if you wait and it continues against you do you close or flip; what if you flip and then it starts to retrace back against you; Should you have hedged your position with a Long on another Index showing strength yesterday etc etc.

Myriad of possibilities, and the fact that you will be under duress makes it hard to think rationally (that's my experience anyway)

I would never be presumptuous to give anyone advice, but I have found that having a game plan in these situations makes it easier ... ie. Before the Dax opens, know at what levels you will close, or flip or add, or anything else ... Even if you plan turns out to be a bad or losing plan, at least you have a plan that you have rationally considered.

Let us know how it pans out ... Cheers.

 

[cynic]

Barney and Thingy, thanks for your interest.

Yes! Like many experienced traders, my escape plan was formulated prior to deployment of this particular trading strategy.

The escape hatch involves hedging with a correlated instrument, if (or when) my accumulated exposure of short trades amounts to a whole euro per point (i.e. ten open short trades). Until that time I'll tolerate the exposure and patiently await the next downswing. (The DAX has not only proven itself quite dependable in that regard, it also displays a propensity for gap filling.)
However, in order to fulfill this, one needs to manage the resultant drawdown.

The fact that this trade will likely be a hundred points (or more) against me when the market reopens isn't the cause of my annoyance. I've had a sensational time trading this account since I opened it just last month. I've already withdrawn my initial capital and am now only trading with the profits.

At 0.10 Euros per point the DAX would need to break its historical high by over three thousand points before that particular trade could jeopardise my account! As it happens, this trade is the only thing currently threatening my account's 100% strike rate.

At this point some readers may be tempted to chastise me for placing undue emphasis on the strike rate, to which I would normally agree!

Please note that my attraction to this fanciful notion is not driven by my desire for superior financial performance. A slight reduction in profit performance is ample compensation for the other benefits I'm experiencing from achieving a killer strike rate.

Most importantly, in keeping this stubborn trade open, I've adhered to my original trading plan!!

 

[barney]

if (or when) my accumulated exposure of short trades amounts to a whole euro per point (i.e. ten open short trades). Until that time I'll tolerate the exposure and patiently await the next downswing.

All good .......

Out of curiosity, do you have a pre-set level at which you will scale into more shorts (ie. A specific Tick value, or a predetermined percentage of the Index value/Range etc.), or is it a totally discretionary decision on a day to day basis?

 

[cynic]

All good .......

Out of curiosity, do you have a pre-set level at which you will scale into more shorts (ie. A specific Tick value, or a predetermined percentage of the Index value/Range etc.), or is it a totally discretionary decision on a day to day basis?

Without wishing to be too specific, this particular system usually involves entering/exiting trades after a set number of ticks above/below the previous trade's entry/exit.

 

[barney]

Without wishing to be too specific, this particular system usually involves entering/exiting trades after a set number of ticks above/below the previous trade's entry/exit.

OK thanks ...... keep us posted on the trade's progress/outcome if you can.

 

[cynic]

OK thanks ...... keep us posted on the trade's progress/outcome if you can.

Rain, hail or shine, I'm more than happy to keep everyone posted on further developments.

One point that I neglected to mention earlier is that there is a bit more to the story of how I came to be trading this particular strategy, on this particular account, with this particular forex broker.

During the first week I managed to complete 64 trades, many of which were somewhat discretionary in nature and were motivated by a desire to profit in an entirely different manner.
For the present, I'll omit the tedious details of what I mean by this, however, I think I should mention that the first week's trading of that particular account featured 64 semi-discretionary trades, the proceeds of which represent just a little over 50% of the account's current balance. The subsequent 245 systematic trades (performed during the past fortnight and a bit) account for the residual (nearly 50%) balance of the account.

Edit: I forgot to mention that I was so delighted by the overall performance of the broker's product and platform during that first week, that I decided to brush the dust off an old SPI daytrading strategy, and adapt it to trading their Germany 30 product.

Although the majority of the trades are opened and completed during a single session, it can no longer be described as a true daytrading strategy, given it has now been slightly modified to allow exposure to carry over into future days.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

If you save any screenshots, throw up a couple more charts/trades if you get a chance. Any of the Dax or Dow would be good

Hi Barn,

Chart has two trades. red for the sell and green for the buy. Both break out momentum trades that broke trend lines. just waited for further highs to confirm the moves as happening. normally i just trade first 2 hours after london open on the DAX and 1 hour on dow from when the spreads move to 1 point. was 11:30-12:30pm

slowly getting ready for this evenings DAX session. :robot2:

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I just completed my first few trades for the quarter on the FTSE this week, and I must confess that other indices are boringly slow and difficult to adjust to after trading the demonic DAX.

On the subject of ballsups, I think I may have made my first one on a forex account I opened just last month. Fortunately I was only trading miniscule position sizes on their Germany 30 product (0.1 EUR per point).

The last position opened was a short that narrowly missed its profit target, but was still a few points in profit when I checked on it during the wee early hours of friday morning.

Not realising that there was a holiday in Germany that would render me unable to trade again until monday, I chose to leave the position open!!!

The DAX is wild one... for me i need it.. FTSE looks a lot cleaner though.

I see the DAX opened a little higher this morning hope you got out with out too much damage. I never hold any trades over the weekend. unless i took it on a daily time frame.

will you be trading the dax tonight?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

today opened two longer term FX trades off the daily.

AUDUSD made the papers about how low it is. minor double bottom. I have a buy
USDJPY double top NFP rally failed to make a new high. Have a sell

stop 65 pips on both

 

[cynic]

The DAX is wild one... for me i need it.. FTSE looks a lot cleaner though.

I see the DAX opened a little higher this morning hope you got out with out too much damage. I never hold any trades over the weekend. unless i took it on a daily time frame.

Still riding it! It just opened approximately 100 points against me! At 0.10 Euros per point it's created a massive 10 euro dent in my account! (Loving these micronised lot sizes.)

will you be trading the dax tonight?

Abso-DAXING-lutely!