Re: Barack 2008!
Barack Obama: Can he win?
Stick a fork in Hillary Clinton. She’s done. At the time of writing Barack Obama is just a few delegates away from securing the leadership of the Democratic party and becoming the first black candidate for the US presidency.
So what next? Well, barring an act of a God with a twisted sense of political humour, Americans will choose beteween Barack Obama and John McCain in November. There’s a long campaign ahead and some of the key issues are summarised below as starting points for - have a look at each, and discuss below, adding any other issues you think will really matter.
Age v experience
A key theme will be Obama’s youth and relative inexperience next to the 71-year-old war hero and veteran Senator McCain.
Turnout
Americans are not compelled to vote. Obama will turn out a different vote than the traditional blue-collar white workers that traditionally carry states like Ohio and Pennsylvania for the Democrats (if they win there). He will also be counting heavily on a youth vote, although youngsters are known for being keen to take part in campaigns in rallies and then suddenly disappear or forget to vote on election day. As always, getting out the right vote will be crucial for both sides, but Obama changes the game by attracting new types of voters.
Race
Yes, it will be an issue. McCain is strong with Hispanics and will have the support of Arnold Schwarzenegger, potentially putting California - almost always a gimme for the Democrats - in play. But other states will follow. Then there’s the southern states with large black populations such as Georgia, where the Democrats will have a renewed strengths. And we are almost guaranteed racial slurs from players in the margins over the coming months which could dramatically alter the course of the campaign - if one side is seen to be playing the race card strongly, it could drastically affect voting patterns.
Iraq
The war is costing US$12 billion a month. Over 4000 US troops have been killed. Americans are tired of the war. Obama has a quick exit strategy; McCain leans towards staying and securing Iraq’s future. This will be a core issue - who will have the strongest, clearest, most reassuring message on America’s role in Iraq?
The economy
America is struggling. Houses are being repossessed. People are losing their jobs. Obama has not been strong on the economy (in fact his policies are unclear in many areas); but then voters are angry at the Republican administration for presiding over the current malaise - this in itself might be enough to force a change at the White House.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/news/..._the_nomination_what_happens_next_can_he_win/