Barack Obama!

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

2020...
You have to admit though, if they had our Westminster system, Hillary would be the nominee!

Who knew Barack when this started?
So their system works for them!

doris -
good point I guess
except when states vote earlier than they are allowed to

btw, the news says superdelegates are expected to flock to Barack (or Barark if you prefer ) after Tuesday...

so - why not be generous about the Michigan and Florida fiascoes (fiasci?) - appease the Clintophiles !!

They really shouldn't be mean spirited about this (imho)

 

[Doris]

Re: Barack 2008!

Yesterday:

Not happy!
The only resolution is... yes, let them have a punitive half vote... but a new ballot is essential for fairness!
What about those who did not turn out because it had been decided by the DNC that they would not count?
... those who 'did the right thing' and accepted the ruling and did not vote?

2,118 delegates are now needed to secure the nomination.

Before today: Obama 1,984.5 ... Clinton 1,784.5 ... (Obama needed 41.5)

Today-
Obama: 2047.5... additional 33.5 votes in Florida and 29.5 in Michigan.
Clinton: 1,871.5 ... 52.5 in Florida and 34.5 in Michigan.

Only 86 pledged delegates remain to be awarded:
55 in tomorrow's Puerto Rico primary and
31 total in the June 3 Montana and South Dakota primaries.

Today:

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/

Revised total needed 2,118 (previously 2026)

Puerto Rico: Obama - 17 ... Hillary - 38

Obama:
pledged: 1741
Superdel: 329
Total: 2070 ( 48 to go )

Hillary:
Pledged: 1624
Superdel: 291
Total: 1915 ( 203 to go )


The Obama camp expected the Puerto Rican outcome as Hillary draws the Hispanic vote.

But they don't get to vote in November... so the superdelegates should not be swayed by this outcome!

Phew!
Barack needs 48 to cross the line and 31 pledges are left in the primaries.

169 superdelegates are left to choose sides.
(The others can still change their minds up until Denver in August!)

Even if Hillary secured all the remaining pledges she would still come up 3 short.

Will it be finally over in two days?!

 

[tigerboi]

Re: Barack longshot to win the white house..

Obama has got no chance of beating mc cain,hilary clinton is the democrats only chance & a slim one at that,remember this fact..its a 50/50 split that will ruin any chance either had of winning...clinton voters will back mc cain so its all over red rover...tb

my odds...president...

mccain....$1.50...4/6

clinton.....$2.60...13/8

obama.....$3.00...2/1

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack longshot to win the white house..

Obama has got no chance of beating mc cain,hilary clinton is the democrats only chance & a slim one at that,remember this fact..its a 50/50 split that will ruin any chance either had of winning...clinton voters will back mc cain so its all over red rover...tb

my odds...president...

mccain....$1.50...4/6
clinton.....$2.60...13/8
obama.....$3.00...2/1

tb, 4/6 is strictly $(1+4/6) = $1.67

But let's use your TAB -like odds...

those odds m8 ...
To win $1, you have to invest

mccain....$1.50... invest 1/1.50 = 67c
clinton.....$2.60...invest 1/2.60 = 38c
obama.....$3.00...invest 1/3.00 = 33c

i.e. invest $1.38 to win $1.00
m8, that isn't "margin" , that's extortion!

 

[wayneL]

Re: Barack longshot to win the white house..

clinton voters will back mc cain

I very much doubt that.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack longshot to win the white house..

Obama has got no chance of beating mc cain,hilary clinton is the democrats only chance & a slim one at that,remember this fact..its a 50/50 split that will ruin any chance either had of winning...clinton voters will back mc cain so its all over red rover...tb

my odds...president...
mccain....$1.67...
clinton.....$2.60...
obama.....$3.00..

Very generous odds for Obama

The other way to look at it I guess...
bet on all three - take your odds for Obama
but take the internet rates for McCain and Clinton...

Internet rates
mccain....$2.62...
clinton.....$13.00...
obama.....$1.67

Final choice..
mccain....$2.62 (invest $38 to win $100) (with internet)
clinton.....$13.00 (invest $8 to win $100) (with internet)
obama.....$3.00 (invest $33 to win $100) (with you)

i.e. Invest (38+8+33 =) $79 -
and whoever wins, get $100 back.
I'm tempted to say "you're on"


PS Incidentally, I notice you can get 18 to 1 on Hillary at the moment

 

[Doris]

Re: Barack 2008!

Obama has got no chance of beating mc cain,hilary clinton is the democrats only chance & a slim one at that,remember this fact..its a 50/50 split that will ruin any chance either had of winning...clinton voters will back mc cain so its all over red rover...tb

Tigerboi...

It's one thing for hysterical women to say they will vote for McCain if they can't have Hillary and another entirely to vote for the opposition!

What values they (don't) have!

Hillary must be praying hard for something bad to change the minds of the superdelegates!
If she capitulates before 'the end' and out comes bad Obama news, she'll regret it.

Never regret what you do... just what you don't do...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121236384098736405.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

[Doris]

Re: Barack 2008!

btw, the news says superdelegates are expected to flock to Barack (or Barark if you prefer ) after Tuesday...

so - why not be generous about the Michigan and Florida fiascoes (fiasci?) - appease the Clintophiles !!

They really shouldn't be mean spirited about this (imho)

Wow you have insight/insider knowledge 2020!

Your reflection was exactly what Obama planned!


http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/...hance-at-more-delegates-looks-to-heal-wounds/

Obama Forgoes Chance at More Delegates, Looks to Heal Wounds

Democratic party rules-committee members said Barack Obama turned down two chances to increase his share of the disputed Florida and Michigan delegates. He instead instructed his supporters on the committee to agree to seating plans for the two states that allowed Hillary Clinton to narrow his lead by perhaps 19 votes, they said.

Committee members said there were enough votes to pass a motion splitting the delegation in half ”” giving each candidate 64 delegates and 32 votes. But they said the Obama campaign, which has long argued for the even split, urged his supporters to drop that plan and vote instead for one that slightly benefited Clinton.

Under the half-vote plan agreed to by the committee, Clinton gets 19 more votes than does Obama ”” 52.5 to 33.5 votes. Under the half-delegation plan, she would have netted six votes more than Obama because of complicated proportional representation rules.

Committee members said the Obama campaign also urged them not to pursue a plan that would have advantaged the Illinois senator in Florida.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

Wow you have .. insider knowledge 2020 (?)

doris
think I read it somewhere - like reading about shares, then buying XYZ, but forgetting why

probably in a negotiation book called .. err, something about "Getting to Yes"
- or was that "Getting to 'Yes We Can' "

 

[Doris]

Re: Barack 2008!

Revised total needed 2,118 (previously 2026)

Obama:
pledged: 1741
Superdel: 329
Total: 2070 ( 48 to go )

Hillary:
Pledged: 1624
Superdel: 291
Total: 1915 ( 203 to go )

Phew!
Barack needs 48 to cross the line and 31 pledges are left in the primaries.

169 superdelegates are left to choose sides.
(The others can still change their minds up until Denver in August!)

Will it be finally over in two days?!

FINALLY!
Over 100 superdelegates to yet side officially...
Hillary takes SD with 8; Montana results not in...

2118 needed:

Obama:
pledged: 1753
Superdel: 366
Total: 2119

Hillary:
Pledged: 1632
Superdel: 289 (2 have opted to swap to Obama)
Total: 1921

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/

Now finally, for a victory speech!
Will Hillary let go?

 

[Doris]

Re: Barack 2008!

doris
think I read it somewhere - like reading about shares, then buying XYZ, but forgetting why

probably in a negotiation book called .. err, something about "Getting to Yes"
- or was that "Getting to 'Yes We Can' "

Isn't 'gut instinct' a wonderful thing?!

Especially when the cognitive reasoning also agrees!

Lovitt!

 

[Doris]

Re: Barack 2008!

What a wonderful day!
ALL my stocks are UP av 8+% except SDL... steady...

Note: 'We' have won...

... not 'I'. Typical.


________________________________________
From: Barack Obama [mailto:info@barackobama.com]
Sent: Wednesday, 4 June 2008 1:16 PM
To: Doris *******
Subject: It's our time

Doris --

I'm about to take the stage in St. Paul and announce that we have won the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

It's been a long journey, and we should all pause to thank Hillary Clinton, who made history in this campaign. Our party and our country are better off because of her.

I want to make sure you understand what's ahead of us. Earlier tonight, John McCain outlined a vision of America that's very different from ours -- a vision that continues the disastrous policies of George W. Bush.

But this is our moment. This is our time. Our time to turn the page on the policies of the past and bring new energy and new ideas to the challenges we face. Our time to offer a new direction for the country we love.

It's going to take hard work, but thanks to you and millions of other donors and volunteers, no one has ever been more prepared for such a challenge.

Thank you for everything you've done to get us here. Let's keep making history.

Barack


Paid for by Obama for America
This email was sent to: doris.*******@bigpond.com

 

[wayneL]

Re: Barack 2008!

OK it's all over bar the shouting. Kaloo kalay! Oh hip hip hooray! Frankincense and Myrrh this instant!

Can I have some news relevant to my country now?

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

.......

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

Obama has a 5 month job ahead of him
fighting off the attempts of the Republicans to sabotage his popularity.

I notice McCain immediately on the attack .. viz...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x98354

McCain welcomes Obama with fresh criticism
By LIBBY QUAID – 7 hours ago

NEW ORLEANS (AP) ”” Republican John McCain welcomed Democrat Barack Obama to the fall campaign for the White House on Tuesday with a blistering attack on his judgment and a charge that he "voted to deny funds to the soldiers who have done a brilliant and brave job" in Iraq.

"Americans ought to be concerned about the judgment of a presidential candidate who says he's ready to talk, in person and without conditions, with tyrants from Havana to Pyongyang, but hasn't traveled to Iraq to meet with General (David) Petraeus, and see for himself the progress he threatens to reverse," McCain said as his rival wrapped up the Democratic nomination.
………….
In a speech intended to mark the start of the general election, the Republican defended himself against Obama's frequent claim that McCain is "running for President Bush's third term" because McCain supports the Iraq war and wants to extend the president's tax cuts.
Voters don't buy it, McCain said.

"The American people didn't get to know me yesterday, as they are just getting to know Senator Obama," McCain said. "They know I have a long record of bipartisan problem-solving. They've seen me put our country before any president, before any party, before any special interest, before my own interest."
….
McCain said, once again evoking Obama's campaign theme, "Change we can believe in."

In a play on the slogan, McCain spoke in front of a campaign banner that read, "A leader we can believe in."

 

[sam76]

Re: Barack 2008!

Barack Obama: Can he win?



Stick a fork in Hillary Clinton. She’s done. At the time of writing Barack Obama is just a few delegates away from securing the leadership of the Democratic party and becoming the first black candidate for the US presidency.

So what next? Well, barring an act of a God with a twisted sense of political humour, Americans will choose beteween Barack Obama and John McCain in November. There’s a long campaign ahead and some of the key issues are summarised below as starting points for - have a look at each, and discuss below, adding any other issues you think will really matter.

Age v experience
A key theme will be Obama’s youth and relative inexperience next to the 71-year-old war hero and veteran Senator McCain.

Turnout
Americans are not compelled to vote. Obama will turn out a different vote than the traditional blue-collar white workers that traditionally carry states like Ohio and Pennsylvania for the Democrats (if they win there). He will also be counting heavily on a youth vote, although youngsters are known for being keen to take part in campaigns in rallies and then suddenly disappear or forget to vote on election day. As always, getting out the right vote will be crucial for both sides, but Obama changes the game by attracting new types of voters.

Race
Yes, it will be an issue. McCain is strong with Hispanics and will have the support of Arnold Schwarzenegger, potentially putting California - almost always a gimme for the Democrats - in play. But other states will follow. Then there’s the southern states with large black populations such as Georgia, where the Democrats will have a renewed strengths. And we are almost guaranteed racial slurs from players in the margins over the coming months which could dramatically alter the course of the campaign - if one side is seen to be playing the race card strongly, it could drastically affect voting patterns.

Iraq
The war is costing US$12 billion a month. Over 4000 US troops have been killed. Americans are tired of the war. Obama has a quick exit strategy; McCain leans towards staying and securing Iraq’s future. This will be a core issue - who will have the strongest, clearest, most reassuring message on America’s role in Iraq?

The economy
America is struggling. Houses are being repossessed. People are losing their jobs. Obama has not been strong on the economy (in fact his policies are unclear in many areas); but then voters are angry at the Republican administration for presiding over the current malaise - this in itself might be enough to force a change at the White House.

http://blogs.news.com.au/news/news/..._the_nomination_what_happens_next_can_he_win/

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

I notice the odds for McCain going out slightly. while Obama has firmed slightly.
McCain has a pretty big job ahead of him to catch up.
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/51363-234-3.html

Obama 4/7 = $1.57 (=64%) (prev $1.67)
McCain 1.75/1 = 7/4 = $2.75 (=36%) (prev $2.62)

sheesh, Hillary firmed bigtime for VP . (odds for democratic VP candidate I mean)
http://www.easyodds.com/compareodds/specials/Politics/m/115075-234-3.html

Hilary 3/1
Jim Webb 6/1
John Edwards 6/1

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

PS
A. Just looking at those odds, if one horse is scratched, odds should go out. Hence you'd have to assume that Obama's odds coming in means that he has picked up Hillary's backers.

B. And also , given that Hillary has firmed in the VP stakes, you'd have to think that the smart money (or at least the big money lol ) is assuming that she will be the running mate, will be "on the ticket" as they say

C Maybe A follows from B ?

If I was a punter, I'd guess Obama will pick someone else, and to hell with the odds - leastways i hope so

 

[wayneL]

Re: Barack 2008!

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Barack 2008!

yep -
those cartoonists can say it all in one word.

This cartoon is a couple of days old now ... (but first the original Monty Python )

Black Knight Monty Python