AYN - Alcyone Resources

[explod]

Nice - even gives you the username and password. I'm guessing their subscription will go up as fast as AYN now.

Maybe not he he he, AYN has to go up first. Knew all about AYN site before the D&D newsleter ever existed.

Visited the site just west of the Gold Coast back in 2002 when it was Macmin Silver.

 

[skyQuake]

Nice - even gives you the username and password. I'm guessing their subscription will go up as fast as AYN now.

Port phillip publishing - they also do Australian Small Cap Investigator

Changes their password monthly for each newsletter

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

If you are into AYN (I am up to my neck) then it is a very bullish report all round. But its just a report, one should always DYOR. You can find the report here:-

http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/osi/issues/osi201104silver.pdf

I did find the following comment very speculative:
"...So the value of this stock is very sensitive to the silver price. If the silver price rises as aggressively as I expect, then Alcyone’s share price rise could be spectacular..."
Hmmm... and if it doesn't.

 

[explod]

I did find the following comment very speculative:
"...So the value of this stock is very sensitive to the silver price. If the silver price rises as aggressively as I expect, then Alcyone’s share price rise could be spectacular..."
Hmmm... and if it doesn't.

I do not agree with that observation. You will note that AYN's price rose as silver's plumeted. AYN can produce an ounce of silver for about US$14 so a silver price north of $20 is going to be very good going forward.

I believe also from reading various comentators over the wekend that silver may not fall much lower and we may expect a month or two of consoildation now before it begins to move up again.

When first production is announced we could expect a good rise in the share price. Spectacular rises are more in dreamland. Steady as she goes is what we hope for and as silver does rise, due to critical world shortages in the next year or so, then so too will we benefit with AYN in my view.

 

[ob1kinobi]

"Steady as she goes is what we hope for ..."

So far this fire-cracker has proved to be anything but steady.

Spec-tacular or Spec-ulative def but steady ... no way.

Maybe this new D & D crowd will stick around, their eager to say the least!

 

[digby218]

"I struggled to see the reason however why Charles Morgan from AYN dumped 30 million shares in two lots in first week of March 2011 and never returned to buy again. I do not think he was cash strapped in race or wanted to pay his mortgage. I would borrow or sell family jewels if I am convinced on company's sucess."



My understanding of Charles Morgans sell up of 30 mil shares is that it was only approx 50% of his holding in AYN. My personal research shows that the money was from another company he owns called Seaspin. I am of the opinion ( I stress its only my opinion ) that the money raised from selling AYN shares was put into other Seaspin projects. I am not sure if Seaspin is still involved or not but i believe it has previously had interests with Grand Gulf Energy...asx code GGE. I dont think there is anything on Seaspins website currently about GGE so he might have moved on from that project.
http://www.seaspin.com.au/

I dunno if I am crazy or but but his sell off didnt faze me in the slightest....

As far as I am concerned Alcyone is sitting pretty with happy days to come over the next 12 months & I am not parting with 680,000 shares any time soon.

 

[explod]

"I struggled to see the reason however why Charles Morgan from AYN dumped 30 million shares in two lots in first week of March 2011 and never returned to buy again. I do not think he was cash strapped in race or wanted to pay his mortgage. I would borrow or sell family jewels if I am convinced on company's sucess."



My understanding of Charles Morgans sell up of 30 mil shares is that it was only approx 50% of his holding in AYN. My personal research shows that the money was from another company he owns called Seaspin. I am of the opinion ( I stress its only my opinion ) that the money raised from selling AYN shares was put into other Seaspin projects. I am not sure if Seaspin is still involved or not but i believe it has previously had interests with Grand Gulf Energy...asx code GGE. I dont think there is anything on Seaspins website currently about GGE so he might have moved on from that project.
http://www.seaspin.com.au/

I dunno if I am crazy or but but his sell off didnt faze me in the slightest....

As far as I am concerned Alcyone is sitting pretty with happy days to come over the next 12 months & I am not parting with 680,000 shares any time soon.

Me either, he got his shares for about 2 cents and sold half for 6 cents, just sound like sensible diversification to me.

 

[EEE]

The buyer pressure looks to be building back up again. I think a positive announcement could see this go for another big run. Could any chartists out there do a fib re-tracement and plot some possible target/resistance levels.

 

[Pauloo]

I have held since they were 3.8c and have done well. The issue I have is that The JORC update was not that good. The surveys are showing 15million plus ounces, but out of that only around half is recoverable 7.5million at $33oz, take away costs and taxes you are left with 94million profit for the entire project. Company shares are valued at 151million. Unless they strike it big or silver goes to $100oz, they are not appealing at current price.

 

[mr. jeff]

I have held since they were 3.8c and have done well. The issue I have is that The JORC update was not that good. The surveys are showing 15million plus ounces, but out of that only around half is recoverable 7.5million at $33oz, take away costs and taxes you are left with 94million profit for the entire project. Company shares are valued at 151million. Unless they strike it big or silver goes to $100oz, they are not appealing at current price.

I am holder so I am biased. but I like your first post.
JORC is JORC. I can justify holding for good production and further drilling. Pauloo I assume you are advising from a pure production fundamentals basis here with no other considerations?

 

[Pauloo]

Do the math yourself and see if I am fundamentally correct on Twin Hills and Mount Gunyan. Silver Spur has good results from the drill samples but look at the difficulty of extracting it. It is a long deep ore body Cost will be much greater.

 

[mr. jeff]

First silver produced off site yesterday.
they say on full scale production of the leach pads, there will 1.5 - 2 Moz pa which would be at a cost of about $15 per oz.
That means a profit margin of around 15 per oz.
at 1.5 m oz per annum (lower end expected), that is net $22.5M per year from the leach.

They also state that there is about 400,000t material to be leached, with average grade 45g/t. At 45% recovery that makes 8.1Moz of silver, at 1.5Moz per year, that is 5.4 years of production ahead, making it $121.5M over that time net, plus whatever the price difference is over $30/oz.

at $35/oz, that is $162M over 5.4 years, or $30M clear a year.

Market cap I saw recently at about $130M so it seems that this stock not in the same state of frenzy as previously.
Little attribution of the underground mine, will be interesting to see updated figures on this.

Check my figures, a bit rushed, don't bank on them.

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01189694

 

[explod]

Looking good today, up 8% on the open.

Gold and silver continues to rise on our open this morning which I have not observed for some time.

Recent reports from Alcyone confirm production underway with extended mine life.

Cheers to holders.

 

[laurie]

All of the above is based on the Silver price of around $30-$38 one of the variables to push this up is the POS I believe until POS breaks $50/oz expect to see sideway movements

 

[explod]

Good news from the Company today on first production.

Nice rise in the share price reflecting the change from explorer to producer.

Silver price showing strength too should continue to reward shareholders.

 

[iced earth]

AYN (ALCYONE RES LTD) 11 August 2011:
===================================
we could see the positive hidden divergence between the price and CCI which might cause the price rising.



but if it breaks down the lower line of the channel (support line), the target would be around $0.04.

 

[explod]

Thanks for posting the chart iced earth.

It is following the silver price very close. With the mill working on site now the next quarterly showing the first sales figures ought to move things along.

Best Aussie (I think only pure) silver producer at the moment. CCU will be next but end of year before production gets under way so that will be one to watch for soon.

 

[pixel]

I consider the 8.6-to-9c zone a must-hold; didn't quite get my fill at 8.6, but topped up yesterday at 9.8. Agree that the underlying momentum, for which I prefer to use a MACD adaptation, seems Bullish.

 

[iced earth]

Thanks for posting the chart iced earth.

It is following the silver price very close. With the mill working on site now the next quarterly showing the first sales figures ought to move things along.

Best Aussie (I think only pure) silver producer at the moment. CCU will be next but end of year before production gets under way so that will be one to watch for soon.

Thanks explod , you are 100% right, it follows Silver price...
I compare both price fluctuation of Silver and AYN and we can see a very strong Correlation(Yellow colour is Silver,Purple is AYN)



for Silver itself ,

Silver might have Head& Shoulder pattern, but first should have the right shoulder completed and then break up the neckline with a considerable volume, but if it happens , Silver should be again around $50.00.



if it won’t happen and silver goes down the red line is a valid support line to hold it back.



Silver is and interesting commodity, it has both characteristics of Investment and Industrial usage, (Unless Gold which is almost all Investment purposes) so sometimes it has not the same pattern as gold and more complicated fundamentally to predict it's movement...

 

[iced earth]

Silver - 19 August 2011
================================
Silver is braking the neck line of the Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be around $50.00 .