AYN - Alcyone Resources

[zzaaxxss3401]

Doing some quick conservative calculations (1.5Moz used):
Gross income from Silver - $40.5m per year ($27/oz * 1.5Moz - guaranteed price)
Recovery costs for Silver - $20.25m per year ($13.50/oz * 1.5Moz)
P/E of (say) 10.
# Shares on register: 911,570,000

Approximate share price (valuation): $0.22c
Approximate share price (current): $0.08c

Using 2Moz for production: +33% or $0.296c

And as Laurie mentions this doesn't include Copper and Zinc.

Anyone else done any calculations of share price potential?

 

[WRONG'UN]

You can treble that valuation for silver at $50/oz - makes AYN nearly a 10 bagger.
Just speculation at this stage, but an illustration of the huge leverage possible with a rising silver price.

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

You can treble that valuation for silver at $50/oz - makes AYN nearly a 10 bagger.
Just speculation at this stage, but an illustration of the huge leverage possible with a rising silver price.

So my calculations have some potential to be correct? I'd be happy with a 100-300% return in 12 months... is $50/oz realistic though? I could see the AUD retracing back to $USD0.90-$0.95 over the next 12 months, so that would affect prices a bit.

 

[ob1kinobi]

Anyone care to comment on one of the directors Mr Charles ? dumping 30 mil of his shares in the past week.

Or perhaps I'm reading this wrong?

Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.

 

[mr. jeff]

Anyone care to comment on one of the directors Mr Charles ? dumping 30 mil of his shares in the past week.

Or perhaps I'm reading this wrong?

Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.

Not very exciting, maybe he like the rest of the market was so surprised it managed to get out of the trading range (4-5c) that he couldn't resist.
There have been a lot of options exercised as well, so read into this what you will.

Directors move their stock when they think it's a good time, in between ann's and when the price is good right ? but they have no idea whether their sp is going to be great or bad in 6 months time usually just like the rest of us, so while AYN has this nice move on , and absorbing director selling, then good.

 

[laurie]

I think but stand to be corrected when a director sells there cannot be an announcement for some period of time after the sell not sure what it is sorry.

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

Anyone care to comment on one of the directors Mr Charles ? dumping 30 mil of his shares in the past week.

Or perhaps I'm reading this wrong?

Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.

The ASX announcements on the 4th and 8th March, suggests that Charles Morgan was holding around 60,000,000 shares indirectly via Seaspin Pty Ltd (Seaspin Pty Ltd, Director and Sole Shareholder, Charles Waite Morgan) before reducing his position by half with 2 separate sales totalling 30,000,000 shares.

Did a search on Seaspin Pty Ltd (http://www.seaspin.com.au/profile.html) and subsequently (as a shareholder) emailed the company for any possible further information regarding the sale. If actions speak louder than words and as an adviser to the Company CEO (no official capacity as a non-executive director), he's clearly only interested in making money... which I guess may not be a bad thing.

Maybe he wants to buy a new house - they're apparently down at the moment.

From Alcyone's website: "... Mr Morgan has successfully identified emerging international opportunities and acquired large, early stage and strategic positions in a wide range of ventures around the world..." (And sold them when he's made a million or 3).

 

[ob1kinobi]

Mr Morgan also happened to increase his holdings at the beginning of Feb.

Just in time for a nice lift.

By a small amount I might add but nevertheless he's had no problem selling half his holding.

My concern is him dumping the other 30 mil.

 

[ob1kinobi]

Then again 16 Mill shares or 500K isn't actually loose change.

 

[mr. jeff]

big move for AYN today



up 20%, hit 10c.

AYN has as noted got production coming on very shortly and mining coming later in the year, so you could hypothesize that people are looking at using this near term producer as leverage. Also note that development costs are possibly easier on the wallet due to reopening existing mine.

If Ag runs, so seems AYN at this stage.
Don't forget SVL for that matter they have some exceptional grades.

 

[EEE]

Yeah looking to get in on the action with this one once it comes off the boil a little. Would love to get in under 9c. Previously held Macmin but sold out before they went on their run from 5c to 20, story of my life. Hopefully these guys can replicate those types of figures and with silver at all time highs I don't think it should be hard, could go quite nicely actually

 

[laurie]

No words needed just look at the buy depth! this is now gone way past the .09c resistance level everyday next week will bring on daily highs to the next resistance of .17c or there about's hopefully don't like a steep climb

 

[explod]

No words needed just look at the buy depth! this is now gone way past the .09c resistance level everyday next week will bring on daily highs to the next resistance of .17c or there about's hopefully don't like a steep climb

Continues the nice trend today (a gap up) along with the silver price. Trying to break down some resistance at 12 cents.

Production commencing with an upgrade expected soon makes the sole Aussie pure silver play look allright for me.

Just had to add a few more this morning.

 

[Clansman]

Doing some quick conservative calculations (1.5Moz used):
Gross income from Silver - $40.5m per year ($27/oz * 1.5Moz - guaranteed price)
Recovery costs for Silver - $20.25m per year ($13.50/oz * 1.5Moz)
P/E of (say) 10.
# Shares on register: 911,570,000

Approximate share price (valuation): $0.22c
Approximate share price (current): $0.08c

Using 2Moz for production: +33% or $0.296c

And as Laurie mentions this doesn't include Copper and Zinc.

Anyone else done any calculations of share price potential?

They have well over 1.3 billion shares on their register, not the 911 million quoted here.

 

[laurie]

1,312,733,155 to be precise lets hope production brings in cash to push their copper & zinc projects and not to go to the market for more cash and further dilution, hopefully down the track a share consolidation could be done say at 1:5

 

[explod]

1,312,733,155 to be precise lets hope production brings in cash to push their copper & zinc projects and not to go to the market for more cash and further dilution, hopefully down the track a share consolidation could be done say at 1:5

Would not be too worried about the copper and zinc laurie. Silver is the game at the moment. They are preparing to process the old Macmin stockpile and the proven reserve alone makes this worth much more than the current price from my rough take. DYOR

We broke resistance of 12 cents yesterday and it closed 10 Euro on Frankfurt overnight so thats about .13 cents here. Early pre-market suggest just that.

Added to my position on the strength yesterday and feel a good trade happening.

Did my dough on Macmin but making it up here so far.

 

[EEE]

wish I could say the same thing. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this one to come down for air, surely the short-termers have got to take some profits soon or have I missed the boat. Hopefully the divergence in volume means the buyers are running out of steam. I guess time will tell but I really need to do something after liquidating half my PEN holdings

 

[laurie]

wish I could say the same thing. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this one to come down for air, surely the short-termers have got to take some profits soon or have I missed the boat. Hopefully the divergence in volume means the buyers are running out of steam. I guess time will tell but I really need to do something after liquidating half my PEN holdings

What are you waiting for its now .14c as I write this,its the same as people sitting there waiting for it to drop down by 0.005 before they buy!! Mate this is no boat but a bullet train and its an express with no station stops well you know what I mean if announcements come out, .20c is not too far off

 

[pixel]

wish I could say the same thing. Still sitting on the sidelines waiting for this one to come down for air, surely the short-termers have got to take some profits soon or have I missed the boat. Hopefully the divergence in volume means the buyers are running out of steam. I guess time will tell but I really need to do something after liquidating half my PEN holdings

I took profit when AYN dropped back from the obvious Fibonacci resistance. Had to scramble to buy them back when the Market proved me wrong. Am also glad about today's sell-down to close the early gap-up; the proverbial "Professionals" that close the day were busily buying at 14c. I guess we'll see 15c soon, maybe even as early as tomorrow.

 

[Country Lad]

I guess we'll see 15c soon, maybe even as early as tomorrow.

I'm assuming 16 then 20.