Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

AYN - Alcyone Resources

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hangseng said:
Hi Miner, wow, what a mess. What the hell has happened here????

I read the said reports and all very favourable, now a CR that has been lowered and unless a recovery in the sp maybe as you say lower again. Never have I seen anything like this. Probably to state the obvious, this is either way oversold as indicated in TA or something is fundamentally wrong here. The latter I will have a look at.

I know the Ag, Au and Cu price have all been hit. However I recall ABY getting hit hard in the GFC and falling Cu price and it rebounded dramatically. The outlook for Cu and Ag, in particular Cu IMO is outstanding, regardless of the Greek mess. I smell a way oversold position here and if it is will consider taking this up if my review shows no fundamental problem.

Technically AYN must hold here or will go to around 2.5/2.7 it seems. As I type buyers coming in, or is that simply shortsell covering at this level? Oh for a crystal ball...:D

Anything you can enlighten me to during this review miner I would appreciate.

Cheers
HS
Click to expand...

Thanks HS. May be your writeup on AYN evoked some sleeping investors for AYN. I will review further but it is time to sleep -:)
Cheers
 
Miner said:
Thanks HS. May be your writeup on AYN evoked some sleeping investors for AYN. I will review further but it is time to sleep -:)
Cheers
Click to expand...

On a turn up of pm's this one will be ripe for picking in my view.

Recent cash raising has been filled at .048 so any uplift will see a rise beyond that level. Fear of course rules at the moment but the action today on the chart looks like a bottom.
 
PT Cruiser said:
Bit of a novice when it comes to this sort of situation, but with the price down another 7% today to 0.041, why would anyone participate in a CR at 0.048?
Click to expand...

The free attaching options might draw a few buyers in...even if the initial CR price is higher than the market
 
explod said:
..........but the action today on the chart looks like a bottom.
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So far you're not wrong, Explode.

Pessimists would say we have a bearish flag.

Optimists would be thinking higher low in the $A silver price.

AYN looks like a reasonable bet to me.

Silver in $A 1.jpg
 
Miner said:
Thanks HS. May be your writeup on AYN evoked some sleeping investors for AYN. I will review further but it is time to sleep -:)
Cheers
Click to expand...

LOL maybe, maybe not miner....


No matter what I have seen enough and decided to buy. AYN bounced on volume from the 2010 suport levels and has held that well. It may reteset that again (3.7) or may not, regardless fundamentally this is a buy for me as they are ramping up the project as a producer and the silver price is bottoming. The latter I am in no doubt will rise higher.

Either way for me this is an entry point today I am very comfortable with based on both a good TA entry point and sound fundamentals. Between Sept-Dec this year I will know if I was right fundamentally or not.

I have my stop set at 3.5, just below the last low of 3.7 just in case I am wrong technically. But I have a feeling AYN is now well oversold on the recent negative market sentiment and panic/EOFY/short selling and will rebound from here. Especially if short selling kicks in.

Let's see what pans out.
 
hangseng said:
LOL maybe, maybe not miner....


No matter what I have seen enough and decided to buy. AYN bounced on volume from the 2010 suport levels and has held that well. It may reteset that again (3.7) or may not, regardless fundamentally this is a buy for me as they are ramping up the project as a producer and the silver price is bottoming. The latter I am in no doubt will rise higher.

Either way for me this is an entry point today I am very comfortable with based on both a good TA entry point and sound fundamentals. Between Sept-Dec this year I will know if I was right fundamentally or not.

I have my stop set at 3.5, just below the last low of 3.7 just in case I am wrong technically. But I have a feeling AYN is now well oversold on the recent negative market sentiment and panic/EOFY/short selling and will rebound from here. Especially if short selling kicks in.

Let's see what pans out.
Click to expand...


HS

Thanks for your detailed post.
For clarificaiton my comment 'time to sleep' came as a metaphor. But when I wrote it was 11 PM at Vancouver I meant to be sleeping only to realise that came literally true :rolleyes:

Market is crashing not because of any technical reasons. It is primarily because Greece and Spain effect and idiosynchrocy of EU. So today DJ index almost crashed 248 points and another two hours to get the DJ Closed down. Job growth in US has dived down (ironically only one day back they predicted the same will be better). Aussie Job market unfortunately is not improved in real terms (guess). So ASX will follow the suit on Monday (is it a PH nation wise or only in WA ?).

My gut feel is AYN with other good quality stocks will give the opportunity to build up for the bargain hunters. Whether it will be 3.7 or 3.5 who knows ? I am putting a buy order at 3.5 to average out previous purchase.
 
Miner said:
HS

Thanks for your detailed post.
For clarificaiton my comment 'time to sleep' came as a metaphor. But when I wrote it was 11 PM at Vancouver I meant to be sleeping only to realise that came literally true :rolleyes:

Market is crashing not because of any technical reasons. It is primarily because Greece and Spain effect and idiosynchrocy of EU. So today DJ index almost crashed 248 points and another two hours to get the DJ Closed down. Job growth in US has dived down (ironically only one day back they predicted the same will be better). Aussie Job market unfortunately is not improved in real terms (guess). So ASX will follow the suit on Monday (is it a PH nation wise or only in WA ?).

My gut feel is AYN with other good quality stocks will give the opportunity to build up for the bargain hunters. Whether it will be 3.7 or 3.5 who knows ? I am putting a buy order at 3.5 to average out previous purchase.
Click to expand...

Only in WA Miner, Foundation Day. Unfortunately no public holiday in Jakarta though just more work.

I find it hilarious that one day the US sells off for whatever reason, then the next day it goes up because of some other reason. Big traders having their way with us lol...

I entered AYN with only a small parcel and will wait to see what pans out. It does look like it will hold current levels and may even range from here until drill and production results later this year. If it bounces from 3.7 again on volume I will increase my position, if not and hits 3.5 then I will get stopped out.

Quite interesting project wise at the moment. BHP and RIO publicly stating they are pulling back on major projects, yet here in Indonesia we are getting more and more enquiries daily than ever before. We and others are taking the latest from BHP and RIO with a grain of salt. BHP has been looking for an excuse to delay Olympic Dam and the Labor govt handed it to them on a carbon and MSP tax platter. The Port Hedland "delay" isn't a delay at all, the decision to expand the port was supposedly always the end of 2012. Yet my daughter in PH tells me the expansion has already commenced lol. Albanese is clever and IMO. He and Kloppers decided this over a lunch on the Swan and is a furphy that will become very clear upon a change in govt.

AYN I feel sure will benefit from this volatility and what I believe will be an inevitable rise in the Ag price. If they strike more Ag (IMO they willwith infill drilling) and the added benefit of Au and possibly good Cu shows, then the AYN sp will rise back up again. If the planed production expansion and lower opex targets are met then a significant re-rating could occur.

Anyway just my Saturday morning ramblings laying down in bed overlooking a very smoggy Jakarta today. Visibility lucky to be 500m from my 24th floor apartment this morning....me to back for a nice sleep in:)

Take care mate.
 
Good luck miner, AYN beginning to look promising. A break from 4.2 may just see a test of that wide open gap at 5.5/6.0.

Has been a bit of supply around this last few weeks at 4/4.1 but has seemingly dried up. If it has then I would expect some short covering to begin. Held well in the market fall yesterday and I added to my position when I saw the testing of supply and little reaction. Looking for a break on volume to possibly take another parcel.

So far so good.
 
hangseng said:
Good luck miner, AYN beginning to look promising. A break from 4.2 may just see a test of that wide open gap at 5.5/6.0.

Has been a bit of supply around this last few weeks at 4/4.1 but has seemingly dried up. If it has then I would expect some short covering to begin. Held well in the market fall yesterday and I added to my position when I saw the testing of supply and little reaction. Looking for a break on volume to possibly take another parcel.

So far so good.
Click to expand...

Did not think they could short minnow stocks.

What's your angle ?

I do hold by the way and see good opportunities with a rise in silver which will translate into a good deal on the share issue capital raising underway soon for holders.
 
explod said:
Did not think they could short minnow stocks.

What's your angle ?

I do hold by the way and see good opportunities with a rise in silver which will translate into a good deal on the share issue capital raising underway soon for holders.
Click to expand...

They can and are shorted like any other stock. Also CFD brokers "borrow" stock and do just that.

"Angle" ???

Read the post, no "angle" just my thoughts on what MAY occur. Is that not what forums are for?
 
Yes, this stock caught me without a stop @ .065 so is my biggest loss so far. Not happy with myself but I did try to catch a falling knife, I deserve the short term pain :-(
 
This one has hit the lows on some very heavy volume and now consolidating on lower volume.
I'll be interested to see if this one forms a base and volume starts to increase on a breakout.
 
Silver up less than a percent, AYN up almost 15% in one day. No announcement. CCU finished down for the day.

Is something going on?
 
Where is a good place to view the current silver price and price history in australia?

Im not sure what the silver price under the commodities tab in comsec actually represents?

Its a fair bit different from the spot price in AUD given by the perth mint
 
Anyone know whats happened to AYN this week? They had announced 5.5mil funding from the US recently and yet this week needed to raise another 2.5 locally???

Also 3 of the directors resigned?
 

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