Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up?)

[MARKETWAVES]

Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )
Last week ….W hile the whole world of traders out there are watching the stock-market and wondering Which Way is Up …

Just look at what the Australian dollar has been up to … It basically has been quietly forming a base ,,, while m ost eyes are on Stocks ,,,, I’ve seen this movie before and and I didn’t like it last time around … This one looks like its going to sneak up on a lot of people ….

These chart formations are a base on Daily charts ,, I didn’t even look at the longer term weekly charts ,, in order to see what’s really going on yet /…. Because this one is in some kind of channel and it has not 1 but 2 overhead gaps …. This is an instance where the futures traders who ‘s eye is well trained and have lost enough money in the markets, such as myself , can really sit back and see the importance of these overhead gaps …

Clearly, you can clearly see that if you trade FOREX ,

These gaps are not apparent to the intraday traders out there …. They are blind to this fact …..


Talk about risk to reward , look at the 2nd chart posted here… this market the Australian Dollar , has multiple support ….
And its happened quite a few times …. The way I am thinking about this one is ,,, What is the probability of this going back up to the .7800 area ? Well , I really don’t care to calculate it,,, because placing a stop just under .7500 looks like it could hold up moving forward …


Next , week any pull back in the Us Dollar should cause a rally here ( futures contracts ) …. Lets watch and see ,,,,



Any comments ? ………….



TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliot Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Australian Dollar …. pg-2


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliot Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

As a short term trade you could well be right. But look at a long term chart and the AUD is right at the top of the range and looks to have formed a double top over a rather long period. Look at a long term chart of the USD Index and it has bounced off the 80 level which marks the historic low point from which it has always bounced.

In other words, I think the AUD is headed sharply LOWER long term (months, years) but you could well be right about a short term rally.

My observations about the long term are based on both fundamentals and to a lesser extent the charts.

 

[DTM]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Looking at the AUD and USD on daily charts, I'd be more inclined to say that the USD is going to shoot up short term, say next few weeks.

It looks like the USD is finding support around $1.31 AUD mark and pressure is building for it to go up.

Nice charts again Market.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Australian Dollar an update ...



What a formation we have developing here ...

Have'nt seen one like this in some time ..... These are great times ..

The posture is extremely bullish .....

What we have here appears to be an Ascending Triangle which is a classic chart formation ..


THIS IS A TYPICAL SET UP , that I am trying to illustrate the importance of Buying before a Break-out .....

Any pull back in the Us Dollar which is over bought right now should cause this one to go North ...

WHAT IS ALSO UNIQUE IS the time analysis on this chart formation starting from a significant high ,,, This why I am always urging people to read about Fibonacci ......


If you really appreciate thes 3 charts ,, bear in mind that I could not see this without a good understanding of Fibobnacci Retracements levels ....

Read all about Fibonacci ,,,, Research Fibonacci Retracements,,,,,,


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[tech/a]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Timing is everything with retracement trades.
Currently the gap to stop (Base of the last lowest low) is far to wide in my veiw.
A buy at or within a few ticks if support would have been a great time to buy.

Are you suggesting buying NOW?
If so what is your stop point if wrong---Fibonacci is often far less than an exact science!!---
If not where would and when would you buy?

Can you save your charts as Gif's as they take for ever to load.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

If that last chart shows a small HS pattern and it is valid then we'll be looking at a return to the uptrend line you've drawn (NL of larger H&S pattern), a bounce up off that line would be a far safer trade imo but then we may miss out just waiting for it if there is a breakout from around where it is now. USD appears to have a bit more steam in it so maybe the Aussie will fall more short term.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

FIBONACCI IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE I AGREE ....... but no other type of anlaysis out there is either .... if the stop gets taken out ... this is where Risk to Reward comes in ,,,,


Please don't confuse Risk to Reward with Money Management.... They are two diffrent things , respectfully .



A small stop on a set up like this is OK ,, if it gets taken out ... IT IS CONROLLED RISK .


EXAMPLE ............

1F YOU TAKE 10 TRADES THAT ARE SAY 4-1 RETURN OR HIGHER AND YOU ARE WRONG HALF THE TIME ... YOU WILL STILL BE AHEAD ....


What I have learned over the last 2 and a halph Yrs of observing the markets ... is that the Pros concentrate on Risk to Reward ..... The Amature is concerned about being right all the time .


This is what seperates the Winning Attitude from the Losing Attitude ...


I am by no means calling any one names here,

So Please don't take offense ,,, I am just attempting to communicate a point ..

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

FIBONACCI IS NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE I AGREE ....... but no other type of anlysis out there is either .... if the stop gets taken out ... this is where Risk to Reward comes in ,,,,


Please don't confuse Risk to Reward with Money Management.... They are two diffrent things , respectfully .



A small stop on a set up like this is OK ,, if it gets taken out ... IT IS CONROLLED RISK .


EXAMPLE ............

1F YOU TAKE 10 TRADES THAT ARE SAY 4-1 RETURN OR HIGHER AND YOU ARE WRONG HALF THE TIME ... YOU WILL STILL BE AHEAD ....


What I have learned over the last 2 and a halph Yrs of observing the markets ... is that the Pros concentrate on Risk to Reward ..... The Amateure is concerned about being right all the time .


This is what seperates the Winning Attitude from the Losing Attitude ...


I am by no means calling any one names here,

So Please don't take offense ,,, I am just attempting to communicate a point ..

MW,
I agree wholeheartedly, you have made an excellent point, not that it hasn't been repeated before here but it's worth stating it again and again. So even if this is a stuff up (or a success) the question I suppose is what is your downside risk (ie the stop) and your upside target (ie the estimated profit) and the obvious one, where would or did you buy? That'll put the RRR into hard numbers.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

MW.

Completely agree.Re analysis.

Please also understand that you are not alone here with your understanding of Fib or Money Management or Risk Control.

As Rich says-----hypothetical case senarios have no relevence to actual trading unless we can see the implementation (In Realtime)---this is the acid test to any trading technique.10-20 trades in realtime will give an idea of actual R/R.So rather than just showing analysis can you show implementation,so that its progress can be monitored---win lose or draw!!?


You've still not answered my questions.
Your explaination of technique is excellent--your explaination of examples of trade implementation are so far non existant.

I and Im sure others are interested in where youd take a trade (Respective of analysis) where youd set the stop and when youd call the trade (Not in hindsite--but in realtime).
There is no point in saying your right now after the fact as we cant put a retrospective trade on!!

So

Are you suggesting buying NOW?
If so what is your stop point if wrong---Fibonacci is often far less than an exact science!!---
If not where would and when would you buy?

 

[Battman64]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) &
Percentage successs rate of trading plan.
These two require great consideration.
In my opinion.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Here are charts from www.futuresource.com. It has intraday and longterm charts for most futures contracts (maybe all but I don't know em all). Thanks to MW for alerting me to the AUD action today. Over to you now...

(These charts are hourly and 15min as of the time of this post)

 

[tech/a]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) &
Percentage successs rate of trading plan.
These two require great consideration.

Neither have any practical relevance without 2 critical "Knowns"

To hypothisise an acceptable R/R and rate of success without KNOWING these 2 critical elements---render a well placed stop and a 4+ return to risk on a 70% rate of success---little more than a gamble.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) &
Percentage successs rate of trading plan.
These two require great consideration.

Neither have any practical relevance without 2 critical "Knowns"

To hypothisise an acceptable R/R and rate of success without KNOWING these 2 critical elements---render a well placed stop and a 4+ return to risk on a 70% rate of success---little more than a gamble.

If this thread becomes a discussion on money mgmt generally we may have to start a new thread. If not would be good to relate it directly to the market being traded. MW/Tech either of you can suggest entry, exit, stop, position size figures etc for a possible trade if you like. That appears to be the contentious issue here in relation to this specific market. Heck, even inexperienced RichKid may make a suggestion re entry, stop, exit etc for this trade but general mm issues are separate. Maybe one of Tech's old money mgmt threads may be a better place to debate the issue. Just trying to keep this on topic.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

This is an update ....


Tech A please , obseve ....

........to this post earlier last month...



This is also being posted to show that there is no hind sight analysis ivolved .



1st chart ....... (is Before ) ( the set up )


2nd chart ............ ( is whats happened since it was posted )
( an update )

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

TECH A ... THIS IS 3 OF MY RECENT POSTS ....

NONE OF THEM WERE PLACED AFTER THE FACT ,


They were all forward looking ... I understand the importance of what you are saying , but please STOP putting me in that boat of people that are all hind sight ....


I am being asked here to give exact buy sell hold and stop signals for trade set-ups yet .. I don’t see any one else doing it ... All I am seeing is disclaimers on posts all over the place ,,
I wonder why ? ,,,,,,

No one wants to be responsible for causing someone else the pain of a loss... it seems ......


Recently I have joined this forum last month to be exact , and I have searched through your posts and the posts of Rich Kid , looking at your posts as you do mine , but where are the entries and stops? ,, how do you manage? ,, These are the same questions being asked of me ...


THIS IS THE EXACTLY REASON TECH - A WHY I ASKED you last month if I can send you trades ,, and we can keep them in a spread sheet for all to see ..... Do you remember that ? Well , you bowed out gracefully out of that one . You didn’t want me to send the trades so that there would be no question in your mind about This HINDSIGHT BUSINESS .....


It just doesn’t seem right ...........


Bottom line , I will do some posts with entry signals and objectives , but please let’s see some of yours ., and I am also keeping a keen eye on Rich Kids posts also, of whom I believe should do some posts explaining his buy and stop areas on a chart also ....


I'm sure the whole forum would appreciate this don’t you think ?


Below are my 3 posts that were posted around the 25th of last month, and how they are doing these days …

_________________________________________________________________


GOLD CAN THIS HOLD ?......

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1357


_________________________________________________________________

GOT GAS

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1391


_________________________________________________________________


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ... DAILY VIEWS

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1414

 

[tech/a]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Waves.

All three are questions and hypothesis.
Not one says at the date of posting a clear trade suggestion.
Gas says you expect bottoming so as an example at that time is it a short trade to support OR a wait and see for a long if the support holds.

I want to see how you USE your analysis not just the theory behind it!

As for my posts on trades---I have a technical analysis thread on current trades just re started as Im now in Aust for a while the analysis is similar yet very different to yours---a good thing.
When Reefcap goes back on line you can follow 3 yrs of them there with a running portfolio.

THIS IS THE EXACTLY REASON TECH - A WHY I ASKED you last month if I can send you trades ,, and we can keep them in a spread sheet for all to see ..... Do you remember that ? Well , you bowed out gracefully out of that one . You didn’t want me to send the trades so that there would be no question in your mind about This HINDSIGHT BUSINESS .....

Waves dont know what this is about(Not wanting you to send trades--please do!) I've been Overseas for 3 weeks happy for you to do this infact be very glad if you do.Would be fantastic to follow.

Thanks Waves.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

v #7 30th-May-2005, 11:15 PM
tech/a
Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Adelaide.
Posts: 963

Re: My trading style ( MARKET WAVES )

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tech a
here's a copy of your post where you said flat out No to a spreadsheet

You gracefully bowed out ...... of this

Go back and read this post in its entirety
you will see what i am refering to .....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1432

Dont know that we need a spread sheet---just a chart showing the entry and your thoughts for the future of the trade---a chart if stopped and a chart when you exit.That way we can follow and comment.

As of Friday Im O/S for a fortnight so my comments and input will be zilch over that time but lookforward to haveing a look on my return.

tech/a
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[DTM]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

After dropping, the AUD looks stronger. It has broken out of its channel and could be on its way up again. Fundamentals look good too with the higher commodities prices and fall in Trade deficit so it could be on its way up. Conversely, oil and gold is up which is never a good thing for the USD.

It looks like it will retest the former resistance line and I think it looks like it will stay up.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Waves.

Whats the big deal?

I said I didnt think it was necessary.If you posted the trades as they would be traded as you saw it.
This hasnt been done.Just ideas from your analysis of what COULD occur.

If you wish to call trades so that we can see the analysis in action that would be great.
If you wish to run a spreadsheet on all trades then that would be helpful and easier to follow I guess,so fantastic.

As it is I cant tell wether your taking a trade or waiting for a setup to pan out---in which case Id like to see when you would take a trade---out of interest for your charting.

Is it that hard or am I being un reasonable?