Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up?)

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Waves.

As it is I cant tell wether your taking a trade or waiting for a setup to pan out---in which case Id like to see when you would take a trade---out of interest for your charting.

Is it that hard or am I being un reasonable?

I think this is the issue here, we seem to be at cross purposes. This is not to hassle you MW, just to get an idea of how you apply your work in real life, as TechA says we're not sure if you took the trade and if so where and how etc. The numbers will tell it.

Well I've posted very specific info on entry/exits/stops in some trades, but not all. That is because, as I freely admit, I'm a newbie and I'm still learning, so I don't have a solid theory to promote. Also I don't trade that often and I don't have time to post at every step. One trade where I was very specific is the Destra thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=578&highlight=destra Also some others but I don't think there was as much detail. My most recent trade is my PRK trade https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1364&page=3, I'll post my entry (actual figures from before I placed my order). Hope that gives an idea of what is expected. TechA has also traded a few recently with clear stops, entry signals etc stated, see here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1385&page=1&pp=10.

So maybe we can now get back to this promising pattern in the Aussie dollar...maybe you'd like to provide links to some of your earlier threads techA if you'd like to illustrate some points on risk and mm which you think have not been covered by MW and we can debate it in that thread??

Also, these technical debates can get heated but remember the object is to analyse each others methods and views rather than to just disagree so let's keep the debate robust rather than rowdy. So far so good.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

A daily chart of AUD/USD looks rather symmetrical to me. Mid point 2nd of March with the recent low on 1st June corresponding with the one on 10th December 2004.

I have no idea how valid this thinking is but if you look at the chart since late last year then I think you'll see what I mean.

If we keep following the same path then two possible scenarios seem to exist. One is that the top for this move is .7945 based on reaching the same price. If you look at it from a time perspective then we are at or near the top. Either way down hard after the top.

Can anyone tell me if this has any validity or not.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Measured against the USD, the AUD and NZD move broadly inline with each other.

Also it's worth noting that both have been on the receiving end of the same borrow USD at 1% interest / buy AUD/NZD at much higher interest carry trade. With rising US interest rates that should be coming to an end which removes a significant support for the AUD/NZD in my opinion.

If you look at the NZD chart this recent move up looks far less impressive.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

What I have learned over the last 2 and a halph Yrs of observing the markets ... is that the Pros concentrate on Risk to Reward ..... The Amature is concerned about being right all the time .

This is what seperates the Winning Attitude from the Losing Attitude ...

MW,
I like that point, has been mentioned before but I sometimes find that I just feel hamstrung wanting all trades to be perfect winners, so the more you mention it the better. Tech has been sharing similar statements in other threads and hopefully we'll get more people like you folks raising these important points.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Okay back to the charting. This is an hourly chart of the AUD/USD as of a few minutes ago. Stochastic suggests it is slowing down and preparing for the next surge up. Or am I reading it wrong? MW, any views? Still some way to climb to test resistance.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Does anyone have any updated views now that the AUD/USD seems to have run into some resistance?

My own thinking from a more fundamental / sentiment perspective is up in the short term, down in the medium/long term. I am presently out of this market though.

 

[excalibur]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Does anyone have any updated views now that the AUD/USD seems to have run into some resistance?

My own thinking from a more fundamental / sentiment perspective is up in the short term, down in the medium/long term. I am presently out of this market though.

According to RSI and ROC she is going in for a dive.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=&stc=1
AUD2.GIF

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Here's an update ... 3 chart updated the Australian Dollar appears to be selling off into this major support area .. ( futures contracts ) ., longer term ...

looking for some kind ogf weeknes in the us dollar going forward to lend possible support . can the us dollar dollar rally get stronger and push the australian Dollar below this long term support line ? .. Well , lets wait for thnae next feds meetingv and see what the they do ...

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Here's an update ... 3 chart updated the Australian Dollar appears to be selling off into this major support area .. ( futures contracts ) ., longer term ...

looking for some kind ogf weeknes in the us dollar going forward to lend possible support . can the us dollar dollar rally get stronger and push the australian Dollar below this long term support line ? .. Well , lets wait for thnae next feds meetingv and see what the they do ...

MW, thanks for the great charts again, I've been watching this one closely of late. I may actually trade it if I see a trigger, just stalking atm. Some measured move analysis might provide some interesting downside targets to watch in combination with the support levels.

Is anyone here thinking of entering or are you in a position already? I'll post my trades here if I enter, anyone else like to do the same? No obligation, just good to discuss it imo- win or lose it doesn't matter. Nice to see clear trend lines, another good thing about forex.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Looks like it bounced off support again, if it doesn't climb higher on the hourly chart it may pullback a bit first, watching the stochastic closely. How are others viewing this?

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Here's the update for the end of this week ,,,

FORWARD LOOKING ...........

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

MARKET WAVES ...
ON THE AUSSIE DOLLAR


THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR LONGER TERM LOOKS LIKE A MASSIVE ASCENDING TRIANGLE HAS FORMED ... ( WEEKLY CHARTS )

What makes this one stand out is that there appears to be an upside-down head and shoulder pattern inside of this massive ascensding triangle formation.... we will need a close below .7200 to negate this formation ,,, Basically, I don't believe that the Australian Dollar has a bearish posture ..

WHEN LOOKING AT THE DAILY CHARTS ( futures contracts )... there apppears to be a flag-pole forming. Only time will tell if this holds up ..

…………….Please, don't give me credit for pointing out these lines ... I have learned them form studying the work of
Fibonacci Retracements and Elliott Waves ..... These lines work well only when they are tied to certain Elliott Wave
structures and certain Fibonacci Retracement levels ..... outside of this they become less reliable...... a whole lot less reliable .
This is exactly the reason why you could never back test a particular stock or commodity for these lines without these 2
basic theories of understanding. NOT ALL CHART PATTERNS ARE TRADEABLE .
(This depends on your trading strategy or trading style )

ALWAYS REMEMBER ….


What makes a market place is all of our diffrences of opinions .
------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
It is far more difficult to Exit a trade than to Enter a trade .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ,,,

THIS IS WHY ,

When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you .
( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM )


THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS ....


THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES , because its giving you a probability of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective , the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is called Risk to Reward )

It’s just the way that is ...

Think of a Head and Shoulder pattern ... you learned of them long ago .... they always have a target based on the head and the neckline area ... This is not my design ... It was around long before all of us and will be around for some time after we are all gone.//

Please try to understand the price target in a head and shoulder set -up ... as an example , Because there are other patterns like symetrrical triangles and falling wedges and ascending triangles that also have price targets tied to them .... Traders have been measuring these price patterns for a long time ....

Surely ... they don't all make it to their targets or so called objectives , and I totaly agree with you , that they don't ..

But , it is the best premise there is to work on.....This is always explained and drawn out on charts ////



TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[DTM]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

I'm bullish on the Aussie dollar although I can see it dropping in the next few days to a major support line before it heads back up. Long term wise it looks to go up.

Does anyone know the fundamentals for this?

Does it mean that interest rates are going to continue up? If yes, based on which assumptions?

Thanks in advance.

Daniel

 

[RichKid]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Does anyone know the fundamentals for this?
Does it mean that interest rates are going to continue up? If yes, based on which assumptions?
Thanks in advance.
Daniel

Good question Daniel, but if anyone is to reply could you please start a new thread on the Aussie dollar fundamentals so that this thread can stay clean for only TA please? It's easier to follow that way.

You can start the new thread in the International Markets forum. Just thought it'd be easier to track things. Also do a quick search to see if there is an existing thread on Aussie dollar AUD fundamentals first. Thanks!

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Autralian dollar … THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR



What a trade setup we have here standing before us ……
I have decided to take this down to the cellular level in an attempt further visually show what I believe is going on …
When I say cellular level I mean ,,, any chart formation under a daily chart …..

I have said repeatedly that trading is about buying support not break outs …
By the time a market breaks out , its too late … In fact , in my trading vocabulary the word break –out is an obsene word ,,, It's the same as a so called cuss word as we call it over here in the States .


There s is a lot of importance on Fibonacci Retracements to study and more importantly learn to watch for them …

Take a close look below ,,,,
I offer these 5 intraday charts to you DTM …. To give you more visual proof of the posture of the Australian Dollar ….

The main concern here is the 50 % level …… and the 618% level …. Any seasoned technitian knows that these are classic pull-back levels ,,,,,

Now these lines may not hold up in then coming days,,,,, it may break through these support lines …..
......... That’s not the concern here …..

Risk to Reward is the main concern …. Not money mangement ….

. Money mangerment is different than Risk to Reward … learn to separate these two and you will become a more confident trader ……

Always remember , that THE PROS…. are concerned with measuring the Risk vs the Reward .............

............................THE AMATEURE is concerned ABOUT BEING RIGHT all the time ...

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

HERE ARE 3 LONG TERM VIEWS TO CONSIDER ......

 

[DTM]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Thanks again MW. Nice charts again. It gives the Aussie dollar picture more clarity, as I can see it more clearly with the short time frames.

Thanks again for the tip. I finally got it.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

HAs any one heard from DTM ?

DTM ARE YOU STILL THERE ?......... I sent you 2 messages in the private box yesterday about the AUSD FOREX ...
ALSO , did you find out about your friend ?
Well, let me know ......please
if you had a chance to read them ...

In the mean while ...........heres the result from yesterdays post ... support held up very nicely today as you can see ... prices literally blasted out of the base that was illustrated .. on the intra day charts above..


.......................................................................................................

Look at what has happened since yesterday to the Australian Dollar ……
Again , this rally is standing straight up … What's the fundamental underlying cause ? UH? ….. I don’t know ? ….
Well , here's what I do know …


Every day there’s a battle between the Bulls and the Bears …( this is well known fact )
At the same time …. And more importantly

Theres a battle between Fundamentals and Technicals …...

Markets move on Technicals sometimes
or
Markets move on Fundamentals sometimes


What I am trying to say is that some moves are Technical by their nature and some moves are Fundamental by their nature ..

TAKE YOUR PIC ,,,,,,,,

…………….Please, don't give me credit for pointing out these lines ... I have learned them form studying the work of
Fibonacci Retracements and Elliott Waves ..... These lines work well only when they are tied to certain Elliott Wave
structures and certain Fibonacci Retracement levels ..... outside of this they become less reliable...... a whole lot less reliable .
This is exactly the reason why you could never back test a particular stock or commodity for these lines without these 2
basic theories of understanding. NOT ALL CHART PATTERNS ARE TRADEABLE . (This depends on your trading strategy or trading style )

This is where the understanding of Risk to Reward comes in ....
One must learn to separate the term RISK TO REWARD from the term
MONEY MANGEMENT ...though similar ,,,,, THEY ARE DIFFRENT TOPICS ONTO THEMSELVES...



TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Has anyone heard from DTM ...............

DTM PLEASE READ the post above ,,,,,,,
ITS AN UPDATE to yestrdays post to help clarify ,,,, whats going on ...

 

[DTM]

Re: Australian Dollar …. (a no-brainer trade set up ? )

Hi Market, thanks again. Nice structure to those waves. USD coming up to major resistance.

I didn't get your messages in my private message inbox if you would like to try again. I don't know what the problem was.