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- 14 April 2009
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More often than not, simply using a daily high or low as an indicator can be the most effective form of technical analysis. Even non-technicians are well aware of this simplest form of technical analysis and use these levels in their day to day trading. One of the key levels to watch over the coming session in the FX market is undoubtedly the 73.50 high set back on April 14 in Aud/Jpy. The level represents a recent trend high, the high for 2009, and the highest point since October 14, 2008. As such, we would expect to see some major stops built up above this level, with a break and close above to likely expose a direct retest of 74.55 over the coming days. Inability to hold above 73.50 however, will suggest market exhaustion and open the door for a material pullback after stops have been taken out. Given the recent moves, we suspect that a break above 73.50 could prove to be a false one and would recommend that trader’s look to sell the cross after it takes out the 2009 highs.