AUD

[Pairs Trader]

trend reversals usually happen in periods of high volatility, the AUD has been whipping between 60-70c lately, I would say low 60's are a good entry, 1st target 70c, 2nd 75c and finally 80c, alongside a equity/commodity rally over the next 6 months.

 

[CanOz]

Great post Pairs. With that note, i'll post my first EOD FX trade. I'm going to have a go at the H&S Pattern here. You can see my entry with the little triangle, my initial stop loss with the red line, and my target with the green line.

Lets see if i can hang on that long!

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Then literally you are also implying that the RBA (who is hungrily buying up BananaBuck$) is taking more risk with our hard earned?

Actually no, i was thinking about the carry trade.

But whatever!

Cheers,

CanOz

 

[Aussiejeff]

Is this the future for the Lil' Ozzie BananaBuck? Will the Unca$amDog go the same way once the printing presses hit Warp Factor 10, Dr Sulu?

http://www.boncherry.com/blog/2008/10/26/global-crisis-this-is-the-real-crisis/

Funny to see the effect of GuvMint intervention in the infaltionary process. Useless!

 

[arco]

.
I went in long off the H1 Kumo which gave a max potential overnight of +76 pips. However my stop at +20 got hit this morning.

The action is under thee Kumo on all TFs which could lead to further bearish moves unless the Kumo can be broken south.

Good weekend all -arco

 

[Indie]

trend reversals usually happen in periods of high volatility, the AUD has been whipping between 60-70c lately, I would say low 60's are a good entry, 1st target 70c, 2nd 75c and finally 80c, alongside a equity/commodity rally over the next 6 months.

She's going to have to rally through a whole heap of terrible news over the next six months. Commodities will get smashed as the China domino falls.

 

[CanOz]

.
I went in long off the H1 Kumo which gave a max potential overnight of +76 pips. However my stop at +20 got hit this morning.

The action is under thee Kumo on all TFs which could lead to further bearish moves unless the Kumo can be broken south.

Good weekend all -arco

Yeah, i didn't take the Ichimoku signal last night as the strength in the S&P's move wasn't too convincing so i was waiting for another bar for confirmation. I felt relieved at that. I took a small profit on my long term postion at 4:45 in the morning as i won't hold over the weekend. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the market dropped even more after i went back to bed, allowing for a better (read larger) position on Monday morning! Great stuff.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

She's going to have to rally through a whole heap of terrible news over the next six months. Commodities will get smashed as the China domino falls.

IMO most of the demand destruction is already priced into Commodities and most should actually rally if the USD slips off its recent perch. The rally may not be long lived though.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[>Apocalypto<]

AUD WEEKLY..........

well it's in a clear bear market in both technicals and fundamentals. IMO

in fib regards the 61 is out but and closed below. PA still moving around it, so in the medium term who here supports the idea of a minor rally? 70-75?

do markets have major technical rallies?

just throwing up so ideas to ponder.........

cheers

 

[Aussiejeff]

Oh dear....

60.9c

I'm sure I just heard the Lil' Ozzie Bleeder wailing and sobbing as it ran down the street ...

[size=+2]"RBA, RBA!!! Wherefore art thou, RBA!!!"[/size]

Poor lil' sod.

 

[mayk]

At 60 the RBA manipulation or PPT will kick in, like last time?
Or will it be different this time?

 

[CanOz]

Everything depends on the S&P really. If we don't get a rally in the US and risk aversion continues to this degree, 55 cents is a real possibility.

Look out below.

CanOz

 

[Temjin]

*Big Sign* There goes my trip back to Hong Kong. It's almost 40% less cash to spend! And inflation in HK is rampaging too with prices of everything are up and stayed the same despite lower input costs since the commodities correction. Going to have to put off my netbook purchase until AUD is back up again.

 

[Aussiejeff]

*Big Sign* There goes my trip back to Hong Kong. It's almost 40% less cash to spend! And inflation in HK is rampaging too with prices of everything are up and stayed the same despite lower input costs since the commodities correction. Going to have to put off my netbook purchase until AUD is back up again.

Book your ticket(s).

The Mighty RBA has spent up big this morning already in a show of Great Aussie Fortitude And Resilience (sic) *coff*.

It appears with Big Bro RBA's first aid, the Lil' Ozzie Bleeder has stopped bawling now and is sitting on the kerb, snuffling, covered in band-aids (at least untill those nasty bully-boys from the other side of the World start bashing it again! )

Have a nice flight....



aj

 

[noirua]

*Big Sign* There goes my trip back to Hong Kong. It's almost 40% less cash to spend! And inflation in HK is rampaging too with prices of everything are up and stayed the same despite lower input costs since the commodities correction. Going to have to put off my netbook purchase until AUD is back up again.

Why not spend your money in Aus instead of giving most of it to Hong Kong.

 

[Indie]

Everything depends on the S&P really. If we don't get a rally in the US and risk aversion continues to this degree, 55 cents is a real possibility.

Look out below.

CanOz

Have to agree with you on that CanOZ. Continued weakness in US equities will see more downward pressure on the AUD as carries continue to unwind. We would already be at 55 if it wasn't for RBA intervention. They spent over $3b in October alone according to The Age today. I'm still short. I can't see the S&P staying above 500 for too much longer.

 

[kitehigh]

The RBA honestly thinks the average punter is a complete mug!

"Yes, we provided liquidity as on previous occassions,'' an RBA spokesman said. "We don't disclose when, nor do we disclose the level.''

"Each time, the RBA said it was not defending a key level, telling the media it was adding liquidity to the currency market."

They continue to persist with this line of providing liquidity, when everyone knows they are just blatantly trying to manipulate the market. I hope they get crammed tonight by the traders on the otherside.

 

[agro]

when can we expect the AUD$ to go up to around 70-90cents again

i got some stuff to buy from america

 

[>Apocalypto<]

when can we expect the AUD$ to go up to around 70-90cents again

i got some stuff to buy from america

You're going to waiting a long time for that to happen.

70 cents could happen.

90 o boy a very long time...........

Cheers

 

[noirua]

"Aussie Dollar to hit 47 cents: bank", http://www.compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-532909