arco
action-reaction
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AUD
- Thread starter money tree
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AUD/USD 5-day pattern and Spiral filter (41 ranges)
"At this stage the best trades (short) are still going to occur either around the 3-day filter highs or the 5-day 50% level rejection pattern.
There will be up days, but for the next couple of weeks it's much the same" Previous Weekly Report.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After Tuesday's reversal down from the 3-day filter highs, and into
the 5-day 50% levels, price continued lower and into Tuesday's lows.
Today is another classic text book pattern breakout:- Breakout of Tuesday's lows will often come back and test the 5-day 50% level and then continue down into the next day's lows. Dilernia principle:- breakout of timeframe will extend into next dynamic timeframe
Then it's a matter of waiting for spiral pattern 'tops', or levels to short
and hold, or re-enter shorts as it completes the down target.
Note: If it had completed the down move into .6610
(Wednesday's lows) and then bounced upwards I wouldn't be shorting AUD
as I have, I would let Wednesday trade out and trade again tomorrow.
Just lucky it has consolidated providing extra trades before it continues
down into 6610:- random support.
"At this stage the best trades (short) are still going to occur either around the 3-day filter highs or the 5-day 50% level rejection pattern.
There will be up days, but for the next couple of weeks it's much the same" Previous Weekly Report.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
After Tuesday's reversal down from the 3-day filter highs, and into
the 5-day 50% levels, price continued lower and into Tuesday's lows.
Today is another classic text book pattern breakout:- Breakout of Tuesday's lows will often come back and test the 5-day 50% level and then continue down into the next day's lows. Dilernia principle:- breakout of timeframe will extend into next dynamic timeframe
Then it's a matter of waiting for spiral pattern 'tops', or levels to short
and hold, or re-enter shorts as it completes the down target.
Note: If it had completed the down move into .6610
(Wednesday's lows) and then bounced upwards I wouldn't be shorting AUD
as I have, I would let Wednesday trade out and trade again tomorrow.
Just lucky it has consolidated providing extra trades before it continues
down into 6610:- random support.
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The Aussie$ has reached an interesting stage now and is likely to be affected by interest rate moves both here and in other countries, or what people perceive will happen to them.
The British Pound tanked over 4% against the US$ on Wednesday and the AUD rose 2% against sterling. AU$1.496 to the US$1 & AU$2.424 to the UK£1.
The British Pound tanked over 4% against the US$ on Wednesday and the AUD rose 2% against sterling. AU$1.496 to the US$1 & AU$2.424 to the UK£1.
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AUDUSD 0.6256 down 7.7% right now... where will it end??
Cannot believe this flight to the $US is real!
Cannot believe this flight to the $US is real!
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An interesting viewpoint of currencies that believes the AUD will do very well out of all this!
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm
Other stories on this site paint some very dark pictures of the developing problems in the US. This week there are good articles on derivatives and also on the decreasing consumer spending figures.
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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No, which is why I'm buying AUDs.
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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I'm buying AUD with SEK, at levels which make it look like Australian assets have been discounted by about 15% in during the past three months. Why? Please explain? I haven't heard a single convincing arguement. Knee-jerk reaction to various things, yes, but this? The ex-pats will be back.
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Quite a sharp reversal for the Aussie to AU$1.614 to the US$1, and AU$2.487 to the weak British Pound.
The AU$ is one of the weakest currencies in the world, down an extraordinary amount, in fact a collapse.
US$ looks to be the currency to hold at the moment. This could suddenly change, but this knife is falling very fast and could take your fingers off.
The AU$ is one of the weakest currencies in the world, down an extraordinary amount, in fact a collapse.
US$ looks to be the currency to hold at the moment. This could suddenly change, but this knife is falling very fast and could take your fingers off.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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ASX all the USD cross's are getting smashed AUD down to .61
Kauri / Bent you guys out there......
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wow, I saw it drop to $0.6044 not long ago.
So when this sharp correction occurs (previously posted article) with the EUR gaining significant strength, will the AUD also regain its strength against the USD? Or are we completely tied to our down trodden commodities?
I don't trade any currencies, just a regular punter who likes to buy 'cheap' gear from the US.
So when this sharp correction occurs (previously posted article) with the EUR gaining significant strength, will the AUD also regain its strength against the USD? Or are we completely tied to our down trodden commodities?
I don't trade any currencies, just a regular punter who likes to buy 'cheap' gear from the US.
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Yes, as I've mentiond elsewhere, Dankse (Bank) Research had the AUD as the most undervalued G10 currency, and the Swedish crown as the most overvalued. The former doesn't help you if you're living OS bringing AUD to where ever you are so you can live. But the latter helps me as I earn in SEK, but plan to holiday in Aust (sooner rather that later now it would seem!).
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What sort of time frame are you thinking? The way things are at the moment, what is to stop it from going lower?
Saying that, surely the .60 level will hold, unless we get capitulation tonight... then I would understand buying after that.
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Could be Citic Pacific Bailing out of the AUD...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1328cafe-9f95-11dd-a3fa-000077b07658.html
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1328cafe-9f95-11dd-a3fa-000077b07658.html
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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I invest/trade Australian assets with Australian dollars. I just added to my AUD capital base for a 15% discount on 3 months ago, and a 7% discount on the last month. The timeframe is instant (well, 2-3 business days).
I'm not trading this, I'm more-so being opportunistic and to an extent dollar-cost-averaging. IMO, when it comes to international transfers the enemy of the good is the best. If you see a rapid move in your favour, do the xfer.
The next 3-5 years I think Australia will fair better than many places, so long as Kev and his crew don't keep making sledgehammer adjustments to economic policy.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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I agree here, i'll be trying to move some RMB out to AUD on Monday if these levels persist. It will pay for my holiday!
Cheers,
CanOz
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Yeah, Citi Pacific may have had a good hand, and they've still been forced to fold due to the Electronic Herd going all-in on a pair of 3s! What can you do??? it's the herd!
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Sounds like a very smart play!
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This situation is beginning to become a bit of a mess. Australia seems to have been bundled in with all the dodgy Asian countries. Many of which will have to let their Banks collapse.
There was a nervous reaction when Argentina seized all the countries private pension fund assets.
Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Iceland and Pakistan have applied for $20 billion of loans from the IMF. Iceland have agreed terms on their $2 billion loan.
The Yen gained 19% last week against the Aussie and the NZ.
The Aussie Government really do need to take a firm and certain hand here. Otherwise, the AUD will hit AU$2 to the US$1. Bank uncertainties do not help as few believe what any of them say.
There was a nervous reaction when Argentina seized all the countries private pension fund assets.
Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Iceland and Pakistan have applied for $20 billion of loans from the IMF. Iceland have agreed terms on their $2 billion loan.
The Yen gained 19% last week against the Aussie and the NZ.
The Aussie Government really do need to take a firm and certain hand here. Otherwise, the AUD will hit AU$2 to the US$1. Bank uncertainties do not help as few believe what any of them say.
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