AUD

[ithatheekret]

I was thinking around June for 98 cents , parity may have to wait until we seen the US crisis is bottoming III . the rate they're going it will have more runs than Bruce Willis and his Die Hard movies .....

What about the latest media hype on a rate cut , more road kills for the media roobar . Kev ought to come down off his cloud and attend to the wafflers and spinners , they're just as bad as inside traders , but they have a capability to spin it to thousands of eager ears .

15 days late and we have the new US Crisis bottoming III out soon .

To think ...... we've only got as far as the ugly news .

............. be nice to go back to just the bad news .

Best stock up on inflight puke bags !

That's if the flight hasn't been cancelled .

p...p...p..parity here we come , unfortunately inflation is well in the lead and we have not even made the last turn yet .

 

[Whiskers]

p...p...p..parity here we come , unfortunately inflation is well in the lead and we have not even made the last turn yet .

Do ya get air sick ithatheekret? She's gonna loose a fair bit of altitude for awhile now... me thinks.

I think it's mainly high oil inflation concerns that's holding oil up there so when oil goes off the boil the USD will probably rise and the AUD may come back pretty quick.

So far so good!

What EW count to you guys have here?

I make the recent high the end of a primary wave 3 or C... I'm not sure which. I don't know the cycle count. Either way the AUD is in for a decent fall isn't it, say back to the low 80's?

I think I saw somewhere the low in 2001 being called cycle V.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Do ya get air sick ithatheekret? She's gonna loose a fair bit of altitude for awhile now... me thinks.



So far so good!

What EW count to you guys have here?

I make the recent high the end of a primary wave 3 or C... I'm not sure which. I don't know the cycle count. Either way the AUD is in for a decent fall isn't it, say back to the low 80's?

I think I saw somewhere the low in 2001 being called cycle V.

I'd agree, I've been playing an Oanda simulation account and its in a downtrend alright.

gg

 

[Wysiwyg]

Do ya get air sick ithatheekret? She's gonna loose a fair bit of altitude for awhile now... me thinks.

Hi whiskers, there will be likely RBA interest rate cuts as consumerism slows and from your experience (or anyones) what effect will lowering interest rates have on the Aussie dollar.Further decline is what you are saying and it has already come off alot.

Oh and lose is spelled lose.

 

[Whiskers]

Oh and lose is spelled lose.

Hum... I'll have to get a spell checker on this site.

You're not an english teacher, are you?

Hi whiskers, there will be likely RBA interest rate cuts as consumerism slows and from your experience (or anyones) what effect will lowering interest rates have on the Aussie dollar.Further decline is what you are saying and it has already come off alot.

The Aus banks seem to be snubbing their nose at normal protocol with interest rates because they have departed from traditional practice into more leveraged and risky funding sources, but if they continue I would expect some sort of intervention and regulatory change by our gov too.

In the months ahead I think the AUD can only go down, partly from the prospect of lower RBA rates but mainly due to some flow back to the USD as the worst of their problems at the national level are over and the cost of oil rapidly declines, I think at least below $100 probably to $80... some suggest possibly lower.

Some segments of the US economy eg residential property and some banks are still not good, but low oil will allow everyone to get on with some normality and as the cost of doing business (from lower oil) improves and confidence returns, employment will pick up and many of the other doomsday scenerios will fade away.

While the US economy has some serious fundamental problems, such as their debt and balance of trade, I think it's not near crunch time for those issues yet, because I think what most people forget is the US has a strong history of ingenuity as has been demonstrated with their intervention and new regulations with the recent crisis. To quote an old saying, it ain't over til it's over.

The bottom line in the short to medium term is some flow of the cash that fled the US to find it's way back home, strengthening the USD and lowering the AUD. The Fall of the AUD will be disproportionately larger than the rise in the USD due to our falling interest rates. However, in about say six months or so as the Aus resource sector gets going again I would expect some flow back to Aus and support the AUD probably around 80 cents.

 

[Wysiwyg]

You're not an english teacher, are you?

Nuh

The bottom line in the short to medium term is some flow of the cash that fled the US to find it's way back home, strengthening the USD and lowering the AUD. The Fall of the AUD will be disproportionately larger than the rise in the USD due to our falling interest rates. However, in about say six months or so as the Aus resource sector gets going again I would expect some flow back to Aus and support the AUD probably around 80 cents.

Thanks for your posts, i find them interesting to read.The Reserve Bank Board Meeting is on Tuesday next week so it will be very interesting to see if the worsening economic climate will bring in a hold or reduction.

 

[Wysiwyg]

15 days late and we have the new US Crisis bottoming III out soon .

To think ...... we've only got as far as the ugly news .

............. be nice to go back to just the bad news .

Best stock up on inflight puke bags !

That's if the flight hasn't been cancelled .

p...p...p..parity here we come , unfortunately inflation is well in the lead and we have not even made the last turn yet .

Nice style . There has been a pretty sharp drop off from the .98`s and surely some sort of support will come in soon.I haven`t much experience with what fundamentals make the currencies move.It seems this recent plummet (AUD/USD) seems to be an overreaction to probable interest rate lowering in the coming months.Maybe a sell on the rumour and buy on the news scenario.

 

[numbercruncher]

Quiet thread all things considered !!

 

[korrupt_1]

noticed this huge spike on the AUS/USD pair...

Anyone else get similar? Strange thing though,... i didnt get stopped?

 

[Wysiwyg]

noticed this huge spike on the AUS/USD pair...

Anyone else get similar? Strange thing though,... i didnt get stopped?

Just logged on and saw that.What the hell happens there?? Who buys up that high with an immediate loss ensuing??????

I`ll be damned if they are purely to trigger stop losses.

 

[korrupt_1]

Just logged on and saw that.What the hell happens there?? Who buys up that high with an immediate loss ensuing??????

I`ll be damned if they are purely to trigger stop losses.

another fat finger???

who knows... just glad i didnt get stopped

 

[caribean]

it could only have been an IT Finance fat finger....lol

 

[lasty]

charts are only as good as the datafeed.

 

[Kauri]

Closed out my short yesterday... finally.. am now watching to possibly rejoin if this proves up to be an ABC corection... may possibly be in a minor W4 triangle looking for aW5 of an intermediate W1.. ??? maybe...
Cheers
............Kauri

P.S... 30 min chart

 

[Whiskers]

Closed out my short yesterday... finally.. am now watching to possibly rejoin if this proves up to be an ABC corection... may possibly be in a minor W4 triangle looking for aW5 of an intermediate W1.. ??? maybe...
Cheers
............Kauri

Bludy good to see ya back kauri.

It ain't quite been the same without ya corny/witty commentry.

 

[Kauri]

didn't quite play out the way I saw it, but still managed to get set, am running a tighter stop than normal, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more short covering afore the weekend, and with the Japanese hols she can be very whippy... possibly..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[professor_frink]

didn't quite play out the way I saw it, but still managed to get set, am running a tighter stop than normal, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more short covering afore the weekend, and with the Japanese hols she can be very whippy... possibly..
Cheers
...........Kauri

Isn't it a Euro hol today Kauri, not a Jap one??

 

[Kauri]

Isn't it a Euro hol today Kauri, not a Jap one??

The Festival of the Dead is celebrated from the 13th of August through the 15th in West Japan. Sections of East Japan celebrate it at the end of July. Many companies are closed during this time, although again, as in the case of Golden Week, there are companies which are breaking with tradition.

If Gold keeps dropping it may bring on more margin/ capitulation sales of carry crosses???? I thunk..
Cheers
......Kauri

 

[professor_frink]

If Gold keeps dropping it may bring on more margin/ capitulation sales of carry crosses???? I thunk..
Cheers
......Kauri

ok I wasn't aware of that one. Looks like there are a couple of unofficial type hols today. Still a good excuse not to work for me

 

[Kauri]

ok I wasn't aware of that one. Looks like there are a couple of unofficial type hols today. Still a good excuse not to work for me

Almost "The Festival of the Dead" for me, got skittled on my scooter at Risely roudabout!!!... plurry 4WD schoolkid wagons***..
Have three shorts running on Skip.. may stay at home and watch them methinks..
Cheers
..........Kauri