AUD

[wavepicker]

Or both?

Perhaps higher expected relative inflationary pressures in the US adding to the case.....



Collective social moods sure set the trends, however these moods are sure altered by the fundamentals.

Like you say though, you can exploit the move through the charts, however, when is the trend prooven otherwise? This in itself can become extremelly vague. Sure, a wave breaking the rules or ("guidelines") or a pivot being penetrated can help, but in the end, it is a lot more random than most aknowledge.

No idea why people keep having stabs at F/A V T/A, both have their merits and if your making $$, you should not feel the need (not having a go at this thread, just a recurring arguement I have noticed throughout the forums lately).

Yes they can be altered by the fundementals, but sometimes not in a fundementally logical manner.
For example, the fundementals could be pointing to an expected market movement but the exact opposite happens. How do you explain these situations?
It is the PERCEPTION of the fundementals that is important not just the fundementals alone. Peoples perception is not all the same, in the same way peoples perception of charts are not the same. i.e subjective.

In so far as how one trades or exploits a trend, that is up to them to work out a methodology to do so. There are no guarantees in any trade , that is why it is important to employ what Douglas calls a "Probablistic Mindest"

You are right about the F/A and T/A debate. Both methods have merits and flaws, but generally one should use what works for them.

Yes it is a never ending debate I agree but it is also a healthy debate, and has been happening since the start of markets!!

All The Best
Wavepicker

 

[dovetree]

I don't think the AUD rise can be just attributed to the USD collapse. If you talk to most professional traders overseas they still see the AUD as a way of taking advantage of gold. As gold is up so is AUD. If gold pauses ( as it seems to be in a conjestive phase now) so does the AUD. Interest rates in Autralia are a a minor part of the AUD to most Large overseas traders.

We are still seen as a big gold pit.

 

[wavepicker]

Added another 60 pips with a long in todays session on top of last fridays 175. Market rallied back to the nominal level as expected (see link below).

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=286709&postcount=854


Now looking to position short again as soon as receive a sell signal, looking for a continuation of the downtrend as daily EW pattern very bearish.

Cheers

 

[wavepicker]

As per last post using of 1 hr bars Cycle went short at 93.85 which was the 0.382 retrace of the entire impulse down from the peak and the area of the previous wave 4 of one less degree. Have added another 50 pips so far on that trade on top of the 235 pips since last Thursday.

Given the AUDUSD looks like it may have completed an ED(Ending Diagonal) on the dailies, we should be now starting wave 3 down which will be the acceleration phase. This is backed up by the Cycle on the 4Hr chart which shows the first major extreme point away from the nominal is approx 91.5. All higher timeframe cycles are pointed hard down(refer to daily chart whereby daily extreme point is approx 85c)

 

[Kauri]

RUMOURS... a boat builder expected to lay off 200 workers and Campbell"s closing a factory in Sydney.
Not rumours... fundies and reserve (Asian) managers on a roo shooting expidition... and the audjpy weighing in as well..

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Frank D]

AUD forming drops in the forward timeframes which suggests there is going to be a drop in the current timeframe... (Monthly timeframes)

First confirming tool is the break of the Weekly 50% level....

2nd confirming tool is a 'test' and reject' pattern tomorrow.... UP day (test) followed by a higher open and push down (reject)

3rd confirming tool is a break of the MAY 50% level.....

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/

 

[Frank D]

As per Previous post....

Expectation that AUD would come up into the Weekly 50% level as a 'Test', and hopefully a continuation down the next day :- reject pattern

S partial exit around 43 pips @ run stops above highs and hold with hopefully a continuation down on Friday... Nothing to lose now...

 

[Naif]

hi again... i missed this forum so much....
ok the audusd rised to 9650 level... is it the right time to short now??
in the weekly chart, i see that its trying to break up the trend line of the uptrend channel.. and that would happen if the pair close this week above this line but there is pressure and the is also divergence in the RSI...

if the pair close below the line , then i think the next journey is to 9505


hope to see what you think..


cheers

 

[acmdude]

Hi can I get a short term, long term and start of june forcast , maybe with some economic juice not just charts for the aud/usd , what going to drive it to 1:1 or whats going to challenge it in the coming weeks, thank u much cheers

 

[Frank D]

AUD has hit May's highs, and Weekly highs and reversed back down into the 3-day lows...

A Weaker pattern will be a rejection from Friday's 5-day 50% level and continuation down on Friday...

However next Week's 50% level then becomes a trend guide on the direction...

Even though Price in MAY has stalled, these levels will shift higher in June, but there still remains alot of resistance around these highs regardless.

Basically everything needs to unwind in a step formation, because the overall trends are still UP:- first step just like April's highs is a reversal down into the 5-day 50% level, and then a continuation down from the next day...

Personally I don't care where the AUD goes or direction, i'm only interested in trading 'points' in the market that will often reverse (spiral-points)....

Partial exit around 41 pips and run stops above/below the entry with the target 95 pips... if i'm wrong, I know right away as price will continue into the next Spiral point...

 

[Whiskers]

Hi can I get a short term, long term and start of june forcast , maybe with some economic juice not just charts for the aud/usd , what going to drive it to 1:1 or whats going to challenge it in the coming weeks, thank u much cheers

Hi acmdude

I don't think most of these guys care too much what the med to longer direction is, they just trade the swings.

But wavepicker noted some negative divergance back in April and it still persists in todays chart.

I have been in the camp that the AUD will come back... or more precisely the USD will regain some lost strength. I'm tipping mid 80's for awhile.

I think it's mainly high oil inflation concerns that's holding oil up there so when oil goes off the boil the USD will probably rise and the AUD may come back pretty quick.

 

[CFD]

~~
I don't think most of these guys care too much what the med to longer direction is, they just trade the swings.

I think there is a lot to be said for only trading the swings in the direction of the trend.

Then if the trade goes against you, there is a chance the trend will get you out of trouble. But if the trade goes against you when you have traded against the trend, your in deep s... .

 

[Dazza_UAE]

Thanks acmdude. Glad to see someone else trying to figure out the long term trend and/or when the TOP of the AUD/USD will be.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Aud/Usd

Here is a look at what may be occurring .......

-------------------------------------------------------------
Only a Probability, ..................Not Cast in Stone !

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Naif]

hi again... i missed this forum so much....
ok the audusd rised to 9650 level... is it the right time to short now??
in the weekly chart, i see that its trying to break up the trend line of the uptrend channel.. and that would happen if the pair close this week above this line but there is pressure and the is also divergence in the RSI...

if the pair close below the line , then i think the next journey is to 9505


hope to see what you think..


cheers

UPDATE
AUDUSD now 0.9595
the pair fell this level after failing to break the upper trend line in the weekly chart, now we see the triangular in the daily and 4h charts, and any break will take the pair to 0.9558 , and if the hour bar close below this support then we will have a stronger support 0.9541 which is the high of 23rd of April 2008..

the target still 0.9508 level...

cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

UPDATE
AUDUSD now 0.9595
the pair fell this level after failing to break the upper trend line in the weekly chart, now we see the triangular in the daily and 4h charts, and any break will take the pair to 0.9558 , and if the hour bar close below this support then we will have a stronger support 0.9541 which is the high of 23rd of April 2008..

the target still 0.9508 level...

cheers

Hey Naif good to see you posting again man! How has trading been going?

 

[Naif]

Hey Naif good to see you posting again man! How has trading been going?

hello Apocalypto,
yea it was quite good but in November i made huge mistake which is that i did not take care of the money management and i lost a lot. But i learnt that i have always to manage money even if i have a long experince in forex...

cheers man

 

[Naif]

UPDATE
AUDUSD now 0.9595
the pair fell this level after failing to break the upper trend line in the weekly chart, now we see the triangular in the daily and 4h charts, and any break will take the pair to 0.9558 , and if the hour bar close below this support then we will have a stronger support 0.9541 which is the high of 23rd of April 2008..

the target still 0.9508 level...

cheers

the low till now is 0.9513 and we need a close below 0.9541 to see the audusd next week breakin the 0.9500 level..


cheers

 

[Naif]

the low till now is 0.9513 and we need a close below 0.9541 to see the audusd next week breakin the 0.9500 level..


cheers

hello again

this week the audusd started the week above 0.9541 and now it seems that 0.9541 is taken and 0.9558 is the first resistance..
todays low is 0.9515.. anyone who went short should move the stop loss to be above the down trendline for the decesending channel in the daily chart.
personally i moved my sl to 0.9620.
the first target remains 0.9508 and horly bar should close below 0.9518 which is the 61.8 fibo in the hourly chart. the second target 0.9480

cheers

 

[Naif]

hello again

this week the audusd started the week above 0.9541 and now it seems that 0.9541 is taken and 0.9558 is the first resistance..
todays low is 0.9515.. anyone who went short should move the stop loss to be above the down trendline for the decesending channel in the daily chart.
personally i moved my sl to 0.9620.
the first target remains 0.9508 and horly bar should close below 0.9518 which is the 61.8 fibo in the hourly chart. the second target 0.9480

cheers

audusd just hit my 1st target , i cashed half of my positions, and moved the sl for the other half to 0.9570

second target remains 0.9480

good luck