AUD

[jonojpsg]

Aaaaarrrggghhhhh!!!! Does anyone else get that feeling when you know that something is going down but you just fail completely to take advantage of it????!!!!

EVERYONE knew the RBA was going to cut rates today, including me, which made the bleeding obvious trade a short on AUD against basically anything else.

Looking at the charts, EUR, USD, JPY, have all made huge gains since 2.30 and could have been a juicy and "almost" riskless trade.

WHY didn't I do it? Can anyone appease my sense of frustration at this, or maybe share it for a little "oh well at least whiskers, kauri, et al missed it as well"?

And if you want to rub it in and tell me how much you all made, feel free too. It might help me to at least feel like my analysis of the situation is a realistic one

 

[Trembling Hand]

Who cares?? One trade gone, many more to come. If you are trading often you will spend 80% of the time looking at charts that "coulda been"

Study the pattern, burn it to memory and move on to the next setup.

 

[Whiskers]

WHY didn't I do it? Can anyone appease my sense of frustration at this, or maybe share it for a little "oh well at least whiskers, kauri, et al missed it as well"?

And if you want to rub it in and tell me how much you all made, feel free too. It might help me to at least feel like my analysis of the situation is a realistic one

LOL

Just paper trading this atm, but I'm making sure my work counts for something. I've been 'botom picking' some grossly unwanted shares that will benifit immensily from the unfolding currency, oil, and gold situation.

Aiming for quite a few 2 or 300%, maybe better, gains in a few months.

But kauri should have made a bit if he held on.

 

[Kauri]

LOL

Just paper trading this atm, but I'm making sure my work counts for something. I've been 'botom picking' some grossly unwanted shares that will benifit immensily from the unfolding currency, oil, and gold situation.

Aiming for quite a few 2 or 300%, maybe better, gains in a few months.

But kauri should have made a bit if he held on.

pretty hard finding a spot to lob a stop... so am going with the 38 Fib...

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[BentRod]

Another nice trade mate.

WD.

 

[Kauri]

Aaaaarrrggghhhhh!!!! Does anyone else get that feeling when you know that something is going down but you just fail completely to take advantage of it????!!!!

EVERYONE knew the RBA was going to cut rates today, including me, which made the bleeding obvious trade a short on AUD against basically anything else.

Looking at the charts, EUR, USD, JPY, have all made huge gains since 2.30 and could have been a juicy and "almost" riskless trade.

WHY didn't I do it? Can anyone appease my sense of frustration at this, or maybe share it for a little "oh well at least whiskers, kauri, et al missed it as well"?

And if you want to rub it in and tell me how much you all made, feel free too. It might help me to at least feel like my analysis of the situation is a realistic one

not sure the cut has much to do with the drop... it was pretty much priced in already and the statement was fairly balanced...
JPY cross sales.. in particular the AUDJPY...might have dragged her down.. along with commodes??? only guessing on my part though..
incidentally ...ANZ may have a samurai coming up... for what it is worth

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[korrupt_1]

Can someone explain to how to trade the news effectively?

I just don't get it...

It was smooth sailing up to the annoucment of the RBA rate decision.

Anticipated a 25bp cut... therefore the "logical" thing that should happen is for it to go down... but then WHY did it go up some 50pips before doing what it should do after it was confirmed a 25bp cut?

Makes no sense to me...

I've seen this many times on trading forex news... it just does the opposite of what it's expected to do.... why????

I am one frustrated trader... I had a short on AUS/USD with a 40pip SL... which was thought to be safe... i got stopped out... and now im just plain angry

 

[Trembling Hand]

I am one frustrated trader... I had a short on AUS/USD with a 40pip SL... which was thought to be safe... i got stopped out... and now im just plain angry

Can you explain why you didn't re-enter the trade on the break of the lows??

Thats what I would be angry at. Not the market moves but you not taking the signals.

 

[korrupt_1]

I did go back in around 8460 when i saw the heavy down trend... but my confidence was shattered... and risked much less than the orignal trade and closed it off at 8410 when it looked like it was going to bounce off the 8400 level...

Should have went back in when it broke down even more... *sigh*....

like sand slipping through the fingers....

Im just confused with trading FX news... So... what's the reason for it to rally on the announcement of the rate cut?

Something sinister????

 

[Trembling Hand]

Something sinister????

You bet it is. Korrupt its a zero sum game. You have to take money off someone. The easiest people to take money off are the ones that place the obvious trades because they spew them out at just the wrong time because they have crap entries, poor R:R and therefor no confidence.

Then even if they do get it right they have smaller wins than their loses. So one side will always lose while others will always win.

What side are you lining up on??

Here is a hint from Nick Radge,

If you are like most people and believe that most important aspect of successful trading is being correct, unfortunately, it's your own ego you're caressing. You can be be a highly profitable trader and lose more often than not - indeed, some of the world's top traders lose more often than not.

 

[korrupt_1]

What side are you lining up on??

Thanks TH... I thought the winning side WAS the short side on the AUD today... I guess it still is... but I had an RR of 2:1... entry was 8482, targeting 8400 with SL at 8532. (80:40)... Initial SL was set at 8520, but I increased it by another 20pips to make sure i'd not be stopped out be shenanigans

Out of curiosity, if one was to trade the news, where would an appropriate entry be? Use today's AUD as an example if you can.

I've read that FX news traders do not trade on the instant the news is released (that's what I did today)... but usually 15mins to 1 hr after the news is out....

Still have plenty to learn about FX... thought it would be similar to Indices... but there's a bit more to it than first thought...

 

[Kauri]

Thanks TH... I thought the winning side WAS the short side on the AUD today... I guess it still is... but I had an RR of 2:1... entry was 8482, targeting 8400 with SL at 8532. (80:40)... Initial SL was set at 8520, but I increased it by another 20pips to make sure i'd not be stopped out be shenanigans

Out of curiosity, if one was to trade the news, where would an appropriate entry be? Use today's AUD as an example if you can.

I've read that FX news traders do not trade on the instant the news is released (that's what I did today)... but usually 15mins to 1 hr after the news is out....

Still have plenty to learn about FX... thought it would be similar to Indices... but there's a bit more to it than first thought...

forget trying to trade the news.. trade the trend... the chart is daily skip... as impulsive a down trend as you are going to see... pick your timeframe.. find an entry point... whether it is EW..PPS...piggybacking hot tips.. or even astrology... and ride it for all it is worth... don't make it complicated when it doesn't need to be..

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Trembling Hand]

Still have plenty to learn about FX... thought it would be similar to Indices... but there's a bit more to it than first thought...

What do ya' mean. The SPI had the exact same pattern... up a bit then down.

Out of curiosity, if one was to trade the news, where would an appropriate entry be? Use today's AUD as an example if you can.

Whatever you have adequately tested and shown to be a tradable pattern in the past. Which is why you are now confused.

If I was being more kind I would say something like this. (which by the way is almost the same as the trades I put on the SPI at the same time.)

 

[theasxgorilla]

I gotta move some money back to Aust, looks like I'll be getting a good rate

AUD/SEK cross rate pushing levels not seen since beginning of 2007.

 

[Kauri]

the news... or summitt else..
the clean break and close below 0.8500 to begin the new month has sent some of the major macro funds into full reversal mode on AUD/USD, with reports of a UK clearer and German bank having dumped A1.6bln while AUD/USD was still above 0.8400. With gold down $16/oz and oil imploding, the commodity-led AUD bull market is being forced further into reversal. Some diehard bulls had been holding out hope while the pair was above 0.8500, which was a 61.8% Fibo on the weeklies, but it now looks as though the carnage will not subside until the Aug 2007 nadir at 0.7677 is retested.
The 25bp rate cut by the RBA overnight was expected, while their statement left the door open to more cuts without sounding too dovish.

cheers
...........Kauri

 

[BentRod]

Every chart I'm looking at tonight is at or near long term critical levels.

AUD WEEKLY

 

[Kauri]

just an idle thought... whilst doodling on the chart..

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

just an idle thought... whilst doodling on the chart..

Cheers
............Kauri

investment banks aggressively selling into a market that isn"t interested in buying above 0.8300.. the market is ignoring reports suggesting that the RBA isn"t going to be aggressive easing rates and instead focusing on the weakening global growth picture that will send commodities lower and thus undermine the appeal of the AUD.
the GDP out later might make or break...
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

almost following the script...

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

just an idle thought... whilst doodling on the chart..

Cheers
............Kauri

What... the sun going down (below the horizon) on skippy? :