AUD/USD

[Joules MM1]

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/commodities-as-a-currency-driver-2012-09-20.pdf

Aussie, Canadian Dollars Lead Commodity Correlation Rankings

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/f...search/White+Paper)&utm_content=Google+Reader

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Yep, ditto about B.O.J conference.

Got out of my longs just after the turn, wasn't watching the screen to get in on the 4hr pin bar short, dam!

Tried shorting it along with eurusd and gbpusd and i n short, it's just ****! The bots are eating up any reversal trend. Gunna stay out of this crap and just watch and wait for something worthwile again.

It's really starting to get obvious when the heard is in control the bots can't play so it's easy money, but as soon as the trend/heard tire's the bots just rape any potential goods positions. Anyone who has been in the game a long time would recognise what I am gong on about.

Never mind another good run is just around the corner.

the BOJ fade caught my long as well. still think the AUD has upside bias. but it's in a disputed area atm. the 1.018 low is where i would like to see it stay above to keep thinking bull with it. still in a hell of a range since 05/2011.

 

[cogs]

Don't know about you but the only worthwhile trades are in London open at the moment, the asian market seems thin and full of algo's.

It's easy to see aussie market hrs trying to push the AUD down, but all it seems to do is create a bargain for London/US then big sell of back to aussie close.

Man what a battle this baby is for those of us who don't stay awake all night!

 

[CanOz]

Don't know about you but the only worthwhile trades are in London open at the moment, the asian market seems thin and full of algo's.

It's easy to see aussie market hrs trying to push the AUD down, but all it seems to do is create a bargain for London/US then big sell of back to aussie close.

Man what a battle this baby is for those of us who don't stay awake all night!

Thin on the Dax too i see. Seems like only volume is hitting the bid!

CanOz

 

[cogs]

Haven't seen rubbish like this for a while. All MM proxy fills, wafer thin.

I'm staying flat for a while till currencies find some direction.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

really liking what i am seeing on AUD today taken a buy on AUDUSD @ 1.0418. looking for a test of 1.06 as long as my stop holds at 1.0316.

 

[cogs]

So did I and was well positioned eur, aud and xau lovely bullish type behaviour until the USD went skyward, which always seems to be a trap now, rape the stops out.

You really have to trade each session on their own now, Asia, Euro and US, then be flat before each starts now days. Each session sets up play before the next starts, over sold, over bought or if it's flat expect London to push it to an extreme.

What major news did I miss last night, Cad GDP, US personal spending?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

So did I and was well positioned eur, aud and xau lovely bullish type behaviour until the USD went skyward, which always seems to be a trap now, rape the stops out.

You really have to trade each session on their own now, Asia, Euro and US, then be flat before each starts now days. Each session sets up play before the next starts, over sold, over bought or if it's flat expect London to push it to an extreme.

What major news did I miss last night, Cad GDP, US personal spending?

hi Cogs,

I just made it out of the sell down to support. still long and looking to ad but it's tricky as RBA rate call is tomorrow. I think on hold but you never know atm. he have a doji pin bar on support.

 

[professor_frink]

hi Cogs,

I just made it out of the sell down to support. still long and looking to ad but it's tricky as RBA rate call is tomorrow. I think on hold but you never know atm. he have a doji pin bar on support.

I think they need to cut here, probably won't though. Either way I think there's a day or 2 more of chop to the downside before we can put in another rally

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I think they need to cut here, probably won't though. Either way I think there's a day or 2 more of chop to the downside before we can put in another rally

thought against a add to my aud long this morning. took 50pips out yesterday on two 1 hour trades. Just going to sit on the aud daily long till the RBA comes out. Have a eurusd 1 hour long now and picked up a buy on gold off the daily as gold looked the strongest of the three on the daily. post rate cut will look at aud again if I am still in. got a bad feeling there will be a slush down on a cut to a retrace.... but depends on the cut, time will tell.

a bit of an intraday rally going on aud... hold punters seem to be positioning.

fink you still short term trading? I was trading one min with daily and 1 hour my main time frames but I am dropping it as it too bloody hard!

 

[cogs]

I'm out at the moment. AUD appears set to go either way with US market closing pretty much mid stream. Might wait and pick up on the reversal. My charts kinda show faid out those stops up to 1.045 ish.



Gold is really indecisive as well and at a dangerous point for leveraged traders, a great bull trap for those who can influence the price. Triple top and could easily retrace to blow out the stops, but there are so many small gold bulls.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I'm out at the moment. AUD appears set to go either way with US market closing pretty much mid stream. Might wait and pick up on the reversal. My charts kinda show faid out those stops up to 1.045 ish.

View attachment 49156

Gold is really indecisive as well and at a dangerous point for leveraged traders, a great bull trap for those who can influence the price. Triple top and could easily retrace to blow out the stops, but there are so many small gold bulls.

Cogs,

Love the rainbow, been a while since I looked at one of those!

Just amazing at how different it makes the price look.



Eur 1 hour you can see the trade trend continuation off the 21ema with minor pin bar spinner with entry bar closing as higher high. my stop has been moved up as the trade went into profit.



I agree about the position the price is at undecided and in a arm wrestle. but based on the current trend strength and the higher low it's put in I am punting on a break out of the current set up. I like pin bar that set up the move to the high, also like the higher low its put in to current test i bought in at.

waiting and waiting, euro and aud softer.... could see a stop on eur trade.

 

[cogs]

Yeah I use the rainbow just for a longer term view, have to look past the prettiness of it and see which MA's it has actually crossed to be usefull, not sure if it helps much.

Ended up taking a small short on the AUD, see how she goes.



As for gold, you have to get in early on those tops and keep a tight stop, hope you have some luck and it runs for you. Thought we were going to see the due drop in USD last night which would have set things in motion but appears the powers that be don't want the gold jump just yet, or just fishing.

 

[cogs]

Now if only the old GBPounder would behave and rollover just after I get another short in.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

adjusted my stop survived the rate cut on the eur trade... then closed it manually as was thinking to much... as normal, off it goes up on the new bar... dumb dumb dumb.

**my aud daily has been stopped.
**Gold Daily still kicking.

 

[Joules MM1]

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[cogs]

Bit of a lonely old thread this one, FF is a little too busy and can have too many varied contributions, so anyone interested in calling the next major bottom?

I don't think it's out of the question we will see parity ~1.005 and eventually 0.9750. Of course it could also retest 1.05 but I don't think the countries fundamentals want to see it again for a little while.

View attachment 49241

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Bit of a lonely old thread this one, FF is a little too busy and can have too many varied contributions, so anyone interested in calling the next major bottom?

FF is a mad house.

I don't think it's out of the question we will see parity ~1.005 and eventually 0.9750. Of course it could also retest 1.05 but I don't think the countries fundamentals want to see it again for a little while.

well i was thinking AUD was at a floor till late/early sat morning when it took beat down... shorted it on demo, didn't have the guts to live trade it at that stage in the week. i have no idea at the moment see what monday tues have to say.. still very unpopular after the rate cut with a lot of dumping going on with little long interest.... pisses me off cuz I have about 5k in EUR to buy in a week for stock! but this area of 1.0170 is showing some support atm.

 

[cogs]

Weekend trading has it at 1.0167 a.t.m, so it looks like a gap down tomorrow AM open. Light volume asian session usually rises slightly so I'll be holding my short and may place a long with a tight B.E. just to milk what I can from the commercial faders, they could fade up to 1.021 ish IMO, if not, more shorts and let it fall.

 

[prawn_86]

I have about 5k in EUR to buy in a week for stock! but this area of 1.0170 is showing some support atm.

If you are doing international TT's and >50k pa AUD worth PM me and i should be able to help you out, i work for a non-bank