AUD/USD

[OGRooney]

In the long term you'd have to think the AUDUSD will come off a bit. Our good run economically will slow eventually. Plus US elections coming up - that usually strengthens the USD too.

I saw predictions 4-5 months ago that the buck would surge, but then rebound - never again to see it's former glory. I was dubious back then, but the second phase seems to be playing out. Also I've read the following comment numerous times over the past few months "This is about Euro weakness, not dollar strength".

Also Gilliard's speech a few months ago telling business to "get used" to a stronger Dollar.

We'll see what happens over the next few months/years I guess.

 

[CanOz]

Interesting interview on the Bloomy yesterday about the AUD becoming one of the favorite trading currencies now, as it is a proxy for so many things in the current macro environment, China/Asia, mining, Gold, risk, etc.

Makes for some good moves if that's your thing.

CanOz

 

[OGRooney]

Interesting interview on the Bloomy yesterday about the AUD becoming one of the favorite trading currencies now, as it is a proxy for so many things in the current macro environment, China/Asia, mining, Gold, risk, etc.

Makes for some good moves if that's your thing.

CanOz

It is interesting isn't it, RB might have to implement price controls ala the Swiss

 

[prawn_86]

It is interesting isn't it, RB might have to implement price controls ala the Swiss

RBA barely ever publicly intervenes and certainly hasnt done so in the last 15yrs. Never say never, but the likelihood of this happening is virtually zero

 

[CanOz]

RBA barely ever publicly intervenes and certainly hasnt done so in the last 15yrs. Never say never, but the likelihood of this happening is virtually zero

I can't see it happening either Prawn. I read somewhere one time that over the long term currency intervention doesn't work anyway. Its a short term politically motivated method to 'appear' to voters that they are doing something...

Buying a ton of US debt (manipulation) does the same thing for a longer period of time i reckon!

CanOz

 

[OGRooney]

RBA barely ever publicly intervenes and certainly hasn't done so in the last 15yrs. Never say never, but the likelihood of this happening is virtually zero

I agree, some big exporters would have to be in big trouble for that to occur.

 

[OGRooney]

I can't see it happening either Prawn. I read somewhere one time that over the long term currency intervention doesn't work anyway. Its a short term politically motivated method to 'appear' to voters that they are doing something...

Buying a ton of US debt (manipulation) does the same thing for a longer period of time i reckon!

CanOz

The SNB have said they're willing to buy "unlimited amounts of foreign currency" - that seems like a pretty costly way of tricking voters don't you reckon? This is about the worldwide drop in Swiss army knife sales :

Anyway sorry for getting off topic with my hypothetical if I feel like discussing price controls further Ill open a separate thread.

 

[CanOz]

The SNB have said they're willing to buy "unlimited amounts of foreign currency" - that seems like a pretty costly way of tricking voters don't you reckon? This is about the worldwide drop in Swiss army knife sales

Anyway sorry for getting off topic with my hypothetical if I feel like discussing price controls further Ill open a separate thread.

That's manipulation, not intervention. Its a long term campaign to devalue the currency. The Japanese were always very good at intervention, as well as buying tons of US debt.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[OGRooney]

That's manipulation, not intervention. Its a long term campaign to devalue the currency. The Japanese were always very good at intervention, as well as buying tons of US debt.

Cheers,


CanOz

ahh, so it was my original use of the term price control that was incorrect? I should have said maybe the RB will implement a currency manipulation strategy like the Swiss?

 

[CanOz]

ahh, so it was my original use of the term price control that was incorrect? I should have said maybe the RB will implement a currency manipulation strategy like the Swiss?

Whatever mate...i just wanted to point out the difference between intervention as i see it, and manipulation...

Carry on AUD...

CanOz

 

[cogs]

Looks like some early attempts at consolidation down to nearly 23%, showing quite bullish still, but certainly not time to take new longs. Amazes me how the AUD can just go and go and go.

Hopefully it can exhaust this current run with a surge up to 1.061 ish. Still overbought on a daily basis tho.

Waiting for this damn QE and Euro news. Most of the currencies are. Consolidate, consolidate.....

 

[DB008]

Looks like some early attempts at consolidation down to nearly 23%, showing quite bullish still, but certainly not time to take new longs. Amazes me how the AUD can just go and go and go.

Hopefully it can exhaust this current run with a surge up to 1.061 ish. Still overbought on a daily basis tho.

Waiting for this damn QE and Euro news. Most of the currencies are. Consolidate, consolidate.....

As I said in the GFC and Iron Ore thread, there certainly seems to be some weakness creeping in from our side of things.

BHP/Woodside/Origin cancelling expansion projects. Iron Ore price coming down in price. Europe is still a mess. China is slowing down. Some currency's parking their money here because of the global turmoil, almost keeping our AUD artificially afloat, or higher than it should be...

I really do wonder where the AUD will be in 6-12 months time. I have no idea myself.

 

[Edwood]

http://www.elliottwavemarketservice.com/2012/08/australia-running-out-of-luck-down-under/

Mauldin has some good narrative from time to time, in this report his focus is the 'lucky country' which some of you should find interesting given potential currency effects

 

[notting]

Ausi looking strong today, gaining on employment data!
Yeah, there really going to be raising rates on that retrospective figure whilst we are looking to fall into our own mined hole.
Looking to see what Ben does, may get a bit more of an AU$ pop if he prints, then buy US$.

 

[prawn_86]

Ausi looking strong today, gaining on employment data!

Strong?? We are only about 40 points off a 5 week low, and could easily test lower in the current climate.

Personally i think we will see a releif rally up to around the 1.0270 level before heading further down (if we do)

 

[cogs]

Managed to find the last top, found the bottom and left a couple of longs to run, anyone care to pick this top?

I am not fully convinced yet but it is definately at the reversal point, whether we see acccumulation and another run, well I'll simply watch and wait. Many (incl myself) would say, well over bought.

I don't think QE's will hold no where near as much punch every time a new stage is released, the shine is fading already.

 

[TulipFX]

There is an interesting opinion piece in Fairfax today on the AUDUSD:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/what-to-do-about-the-musclebound-dollar-20120917-2615i.html

The dollar is rising once more because Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has announced QE3. He will be printing an additional $US40 billion per month to buy MBS. The reasoning of markets goes that this will debase the US dollar so it therefore sells US dollars, and buys ours.

But in truth, $US40 billion is not a lot of money nor a persuasive debasement of the currency at all. QE1 was $US1.5 trillion. QE2 was $US600 billion. Moreover, and here's the real point, the $US is so completely dominant in global currency trade that it turns over some $US3.6 trillion per day.

While we're not supposed to compare a stock (amount of dollars in circulation) with a flow (the turnover of those dollars), the discrepancy in the comparison is so vast that it gives you an idea of just how paltry the Fed's efforts really are.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Took a buy into the AUDUSD today. ent at 1.04605 thinking this could turn into a higher low with another shot at 1.0600. exit plan at 1.0300ish to the downside. anyone know what caused the intraday spike?

maybe this
14:44 JPY Monetary Policy Statement
14:44 JPY Overnight Call Rate

 

[prawn_86]

anyone know what caused the intraday spike?

Timing wise it corresponds with the BOJ decision/reinforcement to keep IR rates low and increase asset purchases to 55 trillion yen

 

[cogs]

Yep, ditto about B.O.J conference.

Got out of my longs just after the turn, wasn't watching the screen to get in on the 4hr pin bar short, dam!

Tried shorting it along with eurusd and gbpusd and i n short, it's just ****! The bots are eating up any reversal trend. Gunna stay out of this crap and just watch and wait for something worthwile again.

It's really starting to get obvious when the heard is in control the bots can't play so it's easy money, but as soon as the trend/heard tire's the bots just rape any potential goods positions. Anyone who has been in the game a long time would recognise what I am gong on about.

Never mind another good run is just around the corner.