AUD/USD

[Joules MM1]

COT report



go to 2.56

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Fellow FX players, Moday is looming as a big one for the AUD the US sit at 3pm Washington time to (i hope) find a agreement. if they fail expect to see some solid selling on the AUD USD.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Taking some hits the last 2 days with the employment report and Chinese GDP by the looks of it?

Looking to test 1.05 again soon??

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Taking some hits the last 2 days with the employment report and Chinese GDP by the looks of it?

Looking to test 1.05 again soon??

closed above 1.05 for the weeks close UF.... and has jumping off 1.05 - 1.0480> all week. still in a range pattern started in AUG 12

 

[cogs]

Rates up or down Tuesday?

AUD up or down as a result?

Hovering around key support, but many need/want the AUD to decline against the USD, but to my knowledge, 'they' have not tried much in the way of manipulation, except jaw boning.

My thoughts are the AUD has been groomed to this support level in time for the next interest rate release to see whether the decision will push it through ~1.016 or bounce off up to ~1.035 - ~1.055. I favour continuation through to 0.97 longer term.

 

[Douglas Class]

AUD/USD DAILY as of Friday, 29 March, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 25 white candles versus 25 black candles.
A Daily spinning top has formed (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.Three Daily black candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
An Inside Day Narrow Range was detected by your Elliott Waves High Volatility on 29/03/2013. This is usually a trade set-up opportunity .
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 1.04 one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign that is not to be used alone! Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a Gann Swing or Pullback that is usually a bearish pattern!
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3
Australian Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1.04 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 55.27 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 65.90 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.01, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 19.47. This value is in the oversold territory.

 

[prawn_86]

Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks

 

[Bill M]

Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks

Hi Prawn, on what basis do you say this?

I certainly hope you are correct for my own selfish reasons (ie. overseas trip coming up) but I am genuinely wondering why.

I know you work in the industry of forex so I am interested in hearing your thoughts. I mean there is plenty of articles out there suggesting it will go the other way, cheers.

 

[pixel]

Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks

On the other hand, the weekly chart could be interpreted as a triple top at 1.06, giving me a target of 96c. Were that target undershot, 93-94c could be hit inside 4-6 weeks as well.

 

[Boggo]

approaching an area of potential reversal on the 15 min

(click to expand)

 

[prawn_86]

I know you work in the industry of forex so I am interested in hearing your thoughts. I mean there is plenty of articles out there suggesting it will go the other way, cheers.

Interesting to note that most of these articles only came about once the AUD had broken down below parity. Before that they were all saying how there is no end in sight for the high AUD.

My feeling is mainly gut to be honest, however a very similar pattern is playing out to last May, when it dropped from 1.0450 down to 0.96 and then recovered well after that. I know there have been a couple interest rate cuts since then, but that didnt seem to bother the market previously, and this move seems to mainly based on the technicals when the 1.02 support was convincingly breached. We still have a great comparative yield here and can see that supporting us.

On the other hand, the weekly chart could be interpreted as a triple top at 1.06, giving me a target of 96c. Were that target undershot, 93-94c could be hit inside 4-6 weeks as well.

Agree, decent support around 0.96, below that my analysis would change. That triple top is something i hadnt considered though.

I'm not saying the recovery will begin from now, maybe more short term weakness, but would be very surprised if not above parity within 4 - 6 weeks. (It will stay down just to spite me now i have made my call public )

 

[Boggo]

approaching an area of potential reversal on the 15 min

Turned as expected, second short target hit

(click to expand)

 

[prawn_86]

Turned as expected, second short target hit

(click to expand)

Possibly the first time i have seen EW used before the action

Nice trade btw

 

[Boggo]

Possibly the first time i have seen EW used before the action

You need to read more prawn
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=13052&page=2&p=770312&viewfull=1#post770312

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Dear Friends

Prawn- 86 I like your following statement.

Interesting to note that most of these articles only came about once the AUD had broken down below parity. Before that they were all saying how there is no end in sight for the high AUD.


According to following link there could be a wave of selling in the Australian dollar if the currency breaks an important support level. I am not familiar with these technical jargons. Do you think this support level is critical?

Please see following link

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578486180339299860.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 

[Bill M]

Interesting to note that most of these articles only came about once the AUD had broken down below parity. Before that they were all saying how there is no end in sight for the high AUD.

My feeling is mainly gut to be honest, however a very similar pattern is playing out to last May, when it dropped from 1.0450 down to 0.96 and then recovered well after that. I know there have been a couple interest rate cuts since then, but that didnt seem to bother the market previously, and this move seems to mainly based on the technicals when the 1.02 support was convincingly breached. We still have a great comparative yield here and can see that supporting us.

Thanks for that, it will be interesting to see where it will be in 6 weeks.

Today I saw this this article:

---
Goldman: AUD Is Doomed; To Fall To 0.80 On Pure Macro Fundamentals

Link here: http://www.efxnews.com/story/18779/goldman-aud-doomed-fall-080-pure-macro-fundamentals
---

 

[DB008]

I have shifted positions.

Am now short AUD-USD through a ETF.

 

[Bill M]

I have shifted positions.

Am now short AUD-USD through a ETF.

I have bought the ETF USD a few times now but each time I have to out weigh the benefits if any. I often think about the interest I am losing if I had the AUD sitting in my online account paying me 5% income rather than putting it into the ETF that pays nothing. Then there is brokerage, $20 in and $20 out. It is a hard gamble but if the AUD is going to collapse 20% it still might be worth it.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks

.96 is my bounce point...I sold it at 102 got out at parity.... mistake there i know. but 2cents is 2cents.

i'm looking for a correction (rally) around here, then looking for new shorts. (AUDUSD daily)

 

[DB008]

I have bought the ETF USD a few times now but each time I have to out weigh the benefits if any. I often think about the interest I am losing if I had the AUD sitting in my online account paying me 5% income rather than putting it into the ETF that pays nothing. Then there is brokerage, $20 in and $20 out. It is a hard gamble but if the AUD is going to collapse 20% it still might be worth it.

Yes, I agree. I purchased it through my SMSF. Gearing is difficult when purchasing through a SMSF.

Up 3% in about 10 days so far. I know, it's not much, but I can hold this one for a while to make (hopefully) a substancial gain.