fair post, but I'd like to throw another thing into the ring: The FED and BOJ are at war (so to speak) to devalue their currencies at the moment. When intervention occurs, fundamentals hit the fan.
fair post, but I'd like to throw another thing into the ring: The FED and BOJ are at war (so to speak) to devalue their currencies at the moment. When intervention occurs, fundamentals hit the fan.
Fundamentally there’s no reason for the USD to rise, unless the US begins lifting
rates, or Republicans get massive spending cuts to the budget, which might
happen.
However, I’m focusing more on the trading perspective, and imo, the USD will
overdone sooner rather than later.
All trends originate from Quarterly 50% levels and thrust outward, therefore if the
USD is going to continue lower, whilst currencies push higher, then I would like to
see both converge towards those midpoints, and then look towards the 3rd quarter
to see if the USD is going to continue lower into 2012 and Currencies push higher.
The basic question is….
Do you want to be shorting the USD and going long currencies at these levels? (holding
positions. Not intra-day trading)
Personally, I wouldn’t.
And the same applies with most commodites, as they are showing the same patterns
in the Primary and Secondary cycles
Well the fed did actually intervene recently to sell the yen, which it wouldn't do in a devaluation war with Japan.
I personally consider politics a large part of 'fundamentals'. Indeed, Bernanke, for instance, is a very large part of the 'fundamentals'. Anyone who read his academic papers prior to the 2008 crash knew very well what was going to happen to the USD and the gold price.
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From a technical point of view, it is due a correction after such a huge rise.
The same was of course true half way up said rise...
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That was the GFC crash, yes? I can never understand how you techies think you can predict financial crises and earthquakes by looking at a price squiggle.
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Predicting earthquakes and financial crises'? You're kidding aren't you. Do you have any idea how t/a works? God I don't even know why I'm wasting my time on this post. Back to staring at the charts.
Some techies, and I have witnessed this clear as day, have performed analysis on certain price moves, and indicated that their analysis somehow explains these moves. All very well - except that the moves in question were the plunge of certain uranium's stocks. No, the move was not explainable in anyway by tech/a - it was caused by the Fukushima incident.
If you will read the posts above, tulip says aud/usd is due for a correction after such a large rise. I then point out that could be said half way up the said rise. He then said 'yeah and it happened', and included a chart. The said chart contains a snapshot of the AUD/USD plunging after rising a lot. The implication being that this was evidence that such tech analysis was well founded.
The plunge happened to be during 2008.
I swear most of you techies are inches from playing aeroplane in public.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Too early to say if the double top has happened? Damn I must taken over 100 short trades (minis) trying to pin the top but keep getting stopped or spooked out.
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My theory is Forex Trading using F/A is just so too hard for the majority of ASF forum users (myself included). The market moves too quickly and the lack of interpretation of any fundamental news just requires too much time for the average trader to analyse and make a move before a major investor or broker jumps in on it.
Stocks and Forex are completely different - you're kidding yourself if you apply the same strategy towards both. I rely exclusively on T/A for all my FX trades, generally trading well within support and resistance lines - let's face it, it's as close to the pokies as you can get without walking into a pub or casino (not that I'd ever compare gambling to trading - see my blog).
Stocks on the other hand move at a pace which enables novice traders / investors to make decisions based on real, genuine fundamental information. I was called by GFT today after making the decision to switch to IG for my FX trading (specifically because I was impressed with their iPhone app and customer support). After telling the GFT rep the reason why I had decided to stick with IG (mistake number 1) the CSR told me that GFT have a very experienced ex-banker with 18 years experience to tell me exactly what was going to happen and when to make a move. What a load of B/S!
I told her that I wish the banker the best of luck with trading a $3+ billion market based on his 18 years experience and that I'm thankful for her call. There was about 10 seconds silence before she said "oh... sorry Mr. Pinnock" and hung up.
The point I'm trying to make is too many people confuse FX with CFD equity trading. It's completely different, the rules for one do NOT apply to the other. FX is fast and in my opinion, too fast to use F/A! Use a chart, find support and resistance - trade well within it using a high contract size, high stop in the direction you expect it to go and low stop within the position you want out!
Stocks and Forex are completely different - you're kidding yourself if you apply the same strategy towards both. I rely exclusively on T/A for all my FX trades, generally trading well within support and resistance lines - let's face it, it's as close to the pokies as you can get without walking into a pub or casino (not that I'd ever compare gambling to trading - see my blog).
Stocks on the other hand move at a pace which enables novice traders / investors to make decisions based on real, genuine fundamental information. I was called by GFT today after making the decision to switch to IG for my FX trading (specifically because I was impressed with their iPhone app and customer support). After telling the GFT rep the reason why I had decided to stick with IG (mistake number 1) the CSR told me that GFT have a very experienced ex-banker with 18 years experience to tell me exactly what was going to happen and when to make a move. What a load of B/S!
I told her that I wish the banker the best of luck with trading a $3+ billion market based on his 18 years experience and that I'm thankful for her call. There was about 10 seconds silence before she said "oh... sorry Mr. Pinnock" and hung up.
The point I'm trying to make is too many people confuse FX with CFD equity trading. It's completely different, the rules for one do NOT apply to the other. FX is fast and in my opinion, too fast to use F/A! Use a chart, find support and resistance - trade well within it using a high contract size, high stop in the direction you expect it to go and low stop within the position you want out!
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I totally agree with your points regarding stocks and forex. People often ask me about stocks and I can say to them with all honesty I know nothing about them. Forex is a totally different beast.
Forgive my ignorance, but what are you referring to when you mention F/A? And for that matter T/A?
Your story about the 'expert' reminds me of this clip explaining efficient markets:
Forgive my ignorance, but what are you referring to when you mention F/A? And for that matter T/A?
Your story about the 'expert' reminds me of this clip explaining efficient markets:
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I'd never consider myself to be an expert. I've been trading for about 7 years - nothing compared to some of the members of this forum. T/A = Technical Analysis (charts) F/A = Fundamental Analysis (Company reports, balance sheets, news etc).
Let me say again, I'm NOT an expert! Trade with whatever style you feel comfortable with - it's your hard earned money, make it work for you!
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Oh of course! Somethings are SO obvious after you have been told.
Yes F/A is harder. However, it requires patients more than anything else. A fundamental trader who saw BOE printing and the Fed printing, but the RBA not printing, is a good example (e.g AUD/USD). Yes, FX is completely different to stocks.
Depends on position sizing. If one is scalping one will use a large position. If one is trading 'I think usd is going to sink over the next 3 months', one will use a smaller position.
Oh I hate the efficient market theory. The idea that all market agents are equal and that some cannot process information better than others, apart from being fatalist and flying in the face of evidence, is illogical. 'Bargains' in stocks (or perhaps currencies even) are not as simple to evaluated as 'bargains' in shoes and groceries. A shopping queue has one 'value', one 'input' and one 'output' - hardly a valid model for a stock, which has a huge number of inputs, outputs and values.
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Say if you were to try to digest fundamental FX market information and trade a position based off this, where would be the best source/s of immediate market release information? ('immediate' being the operative word here as publishing fundamentals 2+ minutes too late means the market has potentially already moved)
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Efficient market theory is not absolute. It is a mistake to think so.
AUD/USD
Based on Monday's trading and Tuesday being below the daily 50%
level....(1.05)
The trend bias is down towards Tuesday's lows...
Breakout of Tueaday's lows in the 2nd 12 hour, and below the Weekly 50% level,
will see more weakness towards the April 50% level & Weekly lows @ 1.0261/78
Based on Monday's trading and Tuesday being below the daily 50%
level....(1.05)
The trend bias is down towards Tuesday's lows...
Breakout of Tueaday's lows in the 2nd 12 hour, and below the Weekly 50% level,
will see more weakness towards the April 50% level & Weekly lows @ 1.0261/78
Attachments
Financial firms always get the information first. You can at best get it just after that.
