AUD/USD

[moreld]

There have been a couple of excellent posts on AUD/USD on a blog I read; thought people here may be interested in.

http://www.datadiary.com.au/2011/03/07/australian-dollar-running-on-empty/
"The Aussie has burnt through its stores of glycogen and has been battling against the wall for a month or two now – any progress from here is likely to take a whole lot more effort. That’s not to say it can’t make one final push higher. It is to say that the risk/reward is heavily favouring the downside over the balance of the calendar year..."

http://www.datadiary.com.au/2011/03/09/short-aususd-as-the-herd-inches-closer-to-the-exits/
"...but the stars are aligning for the commencement of a serious commodity unwind. We’ve been through the many arguments before – tightening liquidity in China, the impending maturity of QE2, the Middle East premium in oil, the market being heavily tilted towards the risk and commodity trade and, more specifically for the AUDUSD, the excessive leverage of the Australian economy..."

 

[prawn_86]

Moved stop to better than b/e now. Stop at 1.015 now, original short taken at 1.0176.

Still looking to exit around the 0.9990 level but just thought i would make sure i lock in some profit in case a dramatic reveral happens.

 

[Ruby]

Moved stop to better than b/e now. Stop at 1.015 now, original short taken at 1.0176.

Still looking to exit around the 0.9990 level but just thought i would make sure i lock in some profit in case a dramatic reveral happens.

Good on you Prawn..............I admire anyone willing to take a punt on the Aussie right now, with the congestion getting quite tight and direction uncertain. Part of me thinks it will make one more push up to about 1.03 (it's been making higher lows since December), but on the other hand it looks very bearish (lots of MACD divergence) and the fundamentals suggest it is unsustainably high. Think I need to wait a bit to see which way it resolves itself.

 

[Paulo30]

It's really looking to test the 1.0000 level, probably tonight.. currently at down at 1.0030. Will wait to see what happens when it breaks that support, but holding until well in the .9900s

Moved stop to better than b/e now. Stop at 1.015 now, original short taken at 1.0176.

Still looking to exit around the 0.9990 level but just thought i would make sure i lock in some profit in case a dramatic reveral happens.

 

[Edwood]

AUD-USD is looking pretty terminal to me on the longer timeframes, in respect of the overall pattern >> an ED within an ED, and counts could complete anywhere around here. might still possibly pop a little higher, but looks as though the next significant move will be down

 

[prawn_86]

Well it went down to support at 0.9990 over night, has bounced slightly so i'm just seeing how it plays out.

Have moved stop to give it > 1:1 RR, exit at original target of 0.9990 would have been slightly over 2:1RR but as i feel it will fall further im hapy to keep an eye on it from here

 

[professor_frink]

Well it went down to support at 0.9990 over night, has bounced slightly so i'm just seeing how it plays out.

Have moved stop to give it > 1:1 RR, exit at original target of 0.9990 would have been slightly over 2:1RR but as i feel it will fall further im hapy to keep an eye on it from here

why the change in tactics mid trade prawn?

 

[prawn_86]

why the change in tactics mid trade prawn?

US stocks got spanked overnight and there is a high correlation between this pair and US stocks at the moment, so ithink if they fall over again, the we will see the dollar break down below this level of support.

Quite a bit of risk aversion has come in overnight so happy to trail a stop reasonably tight and see how it plays out

 

[Ruby]

Have moved stop to give it > 1:1 RR...........

Prawn, yesterday you said you had moved your stop to better than b/e. Where's the risk now?

 

[prawn_86]

Prawn, yesterday you said you had moved your stop to better than b/e. Where's the risk now?

No risk now, its all profit. I'm quoting on the original risk. Original risk when enetering the trade was 80 pips, stop is now in profit of 110 pips so > 1:1 based on original risk

 

[professor_frink]

US stocks got spanked overnight and there is a high correlation between this pair and US stocks at the moment, so ithink if they fall over again, the we will see the dollar break down below this level of support.

Quite a bit of risk aversion has come in overnight so happy to trail a stop reasonably tight and see how it plays out

That relationship has been on the decline this year so I'd be a little careful of playing it that way

The other thing to consider is the move down to new short term lows o/n: it's not uncommon for this type of move to be followed by a 1-3 day rally. That tight stop can be shaken out by this type of rally leaving you flat and without much profit before another selloff gets cracking.

Hope I'm wrong here for your sake, just a couple of things to consider.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Completes the move down into the MARCH 50% level @ .9993

There are two possible patterns on Friday...

continues down into Friday's lows @ .9965

or price swings back towards 1.0035

if price is above that level, then there is a possible swing back towards
channel highs on friday, as part of a swing back towards next week's 50% level.

 

[Paulo30]

Just hit my short target of around .9975, so I'll take the 100p or so profit at this point (it did take 2 weeks to reach this target though from 1.0100)

I expect it to find some support soon though.. panic buying of US dollars will probably dry up over the next week.

It's really looking to test the 1.0000 level, probably tonight.. currently at down at 1.0030. Will wait to see what happens when it breaks that support, but holding until well in the .9900s

 

[prawn_86]

Stopped out yesterday arvo after the bounce from the low. Trailling stop had moved down to 1.002 by then so got out with 150 pip gain.

Was an amazing bounce overnight, lets see if it will retest the highs...

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD was trading around higher timeframe support levels on Friday, which
then provided a 2nd 12 hour breakout pattern sending the AUD back above
the Weekly 50% level.

We have the same pattern as the past 3-weeks:- range trading
between the Weekly 50% level and Weekly highs.

However, this is the first time in 3-weeks that the AUD is trading
above the intra-day channel highs (white).

After this week's pirce action of testing higher timeframe support, and
whilst the AUD remains above the channel highs @ 1.0109 & Weekly 50% level.

My view is that it's trying to move towards 1.035 in MARCH, but it
needs to break out of the Weekly highs

 

[jonojpsg]

What's your take on the big bounce on Friday night Frank? I mean the move down was reasonably quick once it cracked 1.008 but to bounce back up to 1.014 overnight from <1 seems weird given China and Aus data over the last two days?

I jumped back on a short anyway - set stops around 1.018 as this seemed to be the significant resistance level from the last few forays higher. See how it goes

 

[ginar]

What's your take on the big bounce on Friday night Frank? I mean the move down was reasonably quick once it cracked 1.008 but to bounce back up to 1.014 overnight from <1 seems weird given China and Aus data over the last two days?

I jumped back on a short anyway - set stops around 1.018 as this seemed to be the significant resistance level from the last few forays higher. See how it goes

I think there is a fair chance its all related to the rollover of aud futures . LMAO

 

[Frank D]

What's your take on the big bounce on Friday night Frank?

No idea why Friday rallied like it did, but it's not surprising after testing higher
timeframe support levels during the current Quarter.

Most trends develop from higher timeframe 50% levels and 'thrust' outward, and
this is the first time its tested those levels.

Now let's see if it continues to move towards 1.035 during the current month, and then the April highs thereafter.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

My view was that the AUD would try and push upwards on Monday...

It held support, but not long enough...

failing to remain above the key levels @ 11am.

 

[prawn_86]

AUD absolutely smashed against the USD today on increased risk aversion.

Broke down through suppost at 0.9990 - 0.9980 and also now below the 100 day moving average