AUD/USD

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

We have the same patterns in the AUD as index markets, with a breakout of the Weekly lows @ .9985/93

Whilst the market is below the Monthly 50% level and below those lows, the trend bias is down.

If it continues with the breakout, the downside is the MARCH lows @ .9796, and as low as the First quarter channel @ .9564

 

[Edwood]

yep reckon its looking bearish Frank, EW pattern looks complete, ED within an ED & all that, next 1000 pt move more likely to be down imo

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Same pattern as the SPI last week and the S&P (today)

Weekly low support and then a breakout of the Weekly lows the following week. (today)

first target down on the AUD @ .9796, as per previous post, matches the
11pm target

But I would think there would be more weakness during the current Weekly
timeframe

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

First target reached @ .9796

with the expectation that the AUD is moving down into .9633

Trailing resistance @ 9837 until then (11am)

Note:- AUD is currently in a break and Extend pattern within the
Weekly timeframe

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

My view is that the AUD is moving down towards .9633 matched with the
Weekly breakout pattern and next week's lows.

However, Thursday's set-up didn't continue down from .9837 , instead
it remained choppy. (inside day)

I still have the view that the AUD will continue down, but Friday's range might
not come to the party.

There are two patterns at play on Friday...

#1 ) The AUD moves up into the 5-day 50% level and channel highs & then sells
down, breaking 12 hour support and following the larger trend lower.

#2) 12 hour support comes into play early and pushes the AUD back into the
5-day 50% level, which will then decide if it will continue down, or the 2nd
12 hour pattern pushes Friday up towards the recent Weekly low breakout
@ 9985/93

I favour #1 occurring, but I won't be surprised if #2 happens, simply because
the March low @ 9796 has been reached (first target), and the AUD is now
rotating up towards next week levels

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD moved above the 5-day 50% level on Friday, and then continued upwards during
the 2nd 12 hour pattern, as price rotates back towards this week's breakout.


Next Week:- Because there's a breakout pattern in the Weekly timeframe, I
would treat AUD as moving back down into the lows.

For that to happen price needs to be trading below .9897

Otherwise, this week's price action could be a fake break, and over the next
2-weeks AUD moves into a consolidation pattern within the Weekly levels until
the start of the 2nd Quarter (April)

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Fake break in the AUD, and the expectation now is that over the next 2-weeks
price moves into a consolidation pattern until April.

Weekly highs random resistance.

I would focus on trying to take small range increments of 41 pips
each 12 hour range, which occassionally could lead into 85 pips by the end
of the day until April begins.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD has completed the move into the Weekly highs, which is seen as random
resistance.

These highs will either stall the trend, and the AUD moves into another 5-days
of consolidation until the start of April...

or it continues with the fake break pattern, and breakouts of this week's highs
and follows the trend towards 1.035 by next week (last week of MARCH reaching the
MARCH highs)

no probability in what will happen, other than trading in the side of the levels
in Friday's range (11am)

 

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly

As long as price remains above the Weekly level @ 1.0232...

The trend should complete the March highs in the last week of the month.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Trend bias is to continue upwards, as long as it remains above the
Weekly level @ 1.0232

However, the position of the daily levels on Monday won't be helping at this
early stage (11am).

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

March highs @ 1.035 should reach today, or by the last day of the
month (tomorrow)

2011 target highs remain 1.0621

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD completes the MARCH highs @ 1.035 on the last day of the Month.

Market dynamics suggests the trend can continue upwards next week, and
towards the April highs.

If below next week’s level, the expectation is that price is revisiting the
April 50% level.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD completes the April highs @ 1.0434, but it's too early to tell whether the trend
will reverse down on Thursday, as price is trading above Wednesday's highs....

which often will continue to extend up into Thursday's highs.

Note:- over target in 2011 remains 106.12

 

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly and Daily

AUD completes the double Weekly high pattern @ 1.0508

And i'm not sure that the AUD will venture higher in the short-term (this week)

I'd keep an eye on the 11am levels:- each way bet on direction...

as it could continue to follow the friday high pattern, or dip down towards the
March highs @ 1.0434 and lower, as it remains below the brown filter.

 

[TulipFX]

I keep saying 'its gotta drop off now - surely'. But it keeps rising! Poor predictive skills is why I leave my trading to statistics and robots. I would like it to come down a bit. I have USD's I would like to convert at 0.48 like in 2000.

 

[tayser]

interesting to note that banks have finally started quoting prices above parity for the retail market too. 300-400 pips is a nice fat margin for them.

 

[prawn_86]

interesting to note that banks have finally started quoting prices above parity for the retail market too. 300-400 pips is a nice fat margin for them.

Westpac always has the tightest daily rate and they quoted above parity early last week i think.

But yes, now it is above parity they all seem to have widened their spreads out. But as the dollar rises they also make less on USD transfers. 100k USD @ 80c = 125k AUD whereas now it equals circa 95k, so there is 30k less dollars they are earning margin on

 

[tothemax6]

I keep saying 'its gotta drop off now - surely'. But it keeps rising! Poor predictive skills is why I leave my trading to statistics and robots. I would like it to come down a bit. I have USD's I would like to convert at 0.48 like in 2000.

I know this thread is effectively a charting thread, but I'd like to throw in some fundamentals here.

Why would the USD rise? There is no reason that the value of a USD will increase. The value of a USD is a function of the monetary base and the aggregate credit of that monetary base (which is also a function of the former). The monetary base has not only been exploded by the US central bank, following Keynesian monetary policy (Bernanke believes, and you can read his original paper, that the great depression was caused by the central bank failing to expand the money supply), but is still being expanded - and will continue to be so until at least mid-year. The value of a USD is also a function of the demand for USDs - which a function of the health of the US economy. There is no evidence that the US economic structure is more sound now than it was prior to the crash. Sure, economies do recover (to varying extents) following a crash, as resources re-consolidate back to more efficient uses, but this depends on the extent to which a free market exists - and the US is moving further from a free market, not closer.
If nothing politically changes, the future of the USD is very clear - it will not be worth very much. Maybe even as much as a Won.

Regarding AUD, sure, one could argue that there are risks that the AUD will fall. When China has a blow off, for instance, the AUD will plummet. But until then we are in a commodity boom - and fundamentally this is increasing the value of an AUD.

 

[Frank D]

USD Index and the AUD/USD Primary and Secondary Cycles

When we look at the USD Index (first chart) and compare it with other
currencies you’ll see the same patterns in the Primary cycles.

USD Index started 2011 in a bear cycle, whilst the AUD (2nd chart) was in a
bull cycle.

Even though the AUD isn’t part of the USD Index, the target for the AUD in 2011
is $106.12, (2nd Chart) whilst the USD index remains around $73-$75.

Both the AUD can continue to push higher in 2011 and the USD can fall lower...

but my hunch is that the US Dollar will begin to rotate upwards over the coming
weeks, once the lower levels are reached, whilst the AUD and other currencies will begin to rotate back down.

We just have to look for the minor timeframe cycles and certain patterns to see if
that expectation will play out, or not.

 

[explod]

but my hunch is that the US Dollar will begin to rotate upwards over the coming
weeks, once the lower levels are reached, whilst the AUD and other currencies will begin to rotate back down.
.

Hi Frank. Would be interested in any reasoning for your take of some US dollar recovery.