AUD/USD

[sinner]

Line in the sand for Aussie imho.

Trade up from here for one final drive higher.

Trade down from here, looking for a re-test to finally go short on the comdolls!

I took a couple of spec longs here at this line in the sand, the premise being these previous lows should act as a resistance becomes support, but no guarantees in this game.


I like this play because it seems like the bigger players are just trying to paint the chart into looking scary, but maybe it really is scary and I'm just stupid.

Context:
* Aussie is tanking today with correlation desks once again following the NZD down after NZ PMs comments that a recession there might be unavoidable.
* Aussie Q4 GDP reported much better than expected today, although the Q3 results were revised down.
* My interpretation of the liquidity sentiment today is that retail and hedge fund accounts (liquidity consumers) were the responsible short sellers, banks (liquidity providers) bought the dip.


I don't think it will take too long to know for sure, and one last shoot for 1.03 is worth the RR to me. If it doesn't work out there will be plenty of pips to the downside.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Current Weekly high levels forming resistance once again, and the intra-day break of
trailing support (1.0112) suggests more weakness in the short-term.

This can change over the next 10 hours....but..

it looks more like it wants to move back down into the Weekly 50% level, and
then possibly down into the Weekly lows, which match the
Monthly 50% levels in March @ .9993

 

[prawn_86]

I actually took out a small short when i got to work this morning based on the fact that it has tried and failed a lot lately to break through the 1.0180 - 1.02 range.

Bottom of the longer term range im targeting is around 0.9980. Cant post a chart as im at work.

EDIT - Frank beat me to it

 

[sinner]

I am adjusting the in-profit stop on roughly half the position up to 1.015, if we continue up in a hurry from here it shouldn't get hit and the whole position will continue to ride up. Otherwise I am looking to lock in that 50 pips and let the other half run with the stops on that portion at breakeven+1.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

Things do change over 10-hours...

whilst above the trend guides on Thursday @ 1.0146, the view is that price is
moving back towards the highs....(random resistance)

And then see if the 2nd 12 hour pattern breaks out, as part of a move
towards the March highs @ 1.0353

Friday target @ 1.0262

 

[Paulo30]

I've been holding for a week or so, but am still short, looking at exiting around 0.9970. I do take positions for long-term though, and trade on a Daily.

I actually took out a small short when i got to work this morning based on the fact that it has tried and failed a lot lately to break through the 1.0180 - 1.02 range.

Bottom of the longer term range im targeting is around 0.9980. Cant post a chart as im at work.

EDIT - Frank beat me to it

 

[prawn_86]

I've been holding for a week or so, but am still short, looking at exiting around 0.9970. I do take positions for long-term though, and trade on a Daily.

Yeh im still holding my short also. Not much doing, there is real AUD strength at the moment, and its interesting to watch the finance channels at work now starting to ask if the USD is losing its status as the 'reserve' currency, similar to what i asked in this thread a few weeks ago

 

[Paulo30]

Yeah I was just reading today in the Sun Herald (Pascoe's column), that some economists are expecting it now to go back down to .90 at least, either from interest rates in the US being raised (can't see it..), else also because there is no clear push to raise them here.. personally I don't see any major push for it to breach the 1.03 mark, which it hasn't gotten over yet.. so it may channel for a while.

Yeh im still holding my short also. Not much doing, there is real AUD strength at the moment, and its interesting to watch the finance channels at work now starting to ask if the USD is losing its status as the 'reserve' currency, similar to what i asked in this thread a few weeks ago

 

[IB12]

Could go anywhere really.
Fed could be pressured (politically) to raise rates, and any rumor of this would send the Aussie lower sharply.
Or, we could continue to get strong growth numbers and the Fed will continue to remain (stubbornly) behind the 8-ball and keeping rates below zero in real terms. Which will send the Aussie trending towards the 1.02-1.05 level and break new ground.

Fact of the matter is we all don't have a clue, so get your risk management right and buckle up.

 

[sinner]

Yeh im still holding my short also. Not much doing, there is real AUD strength at the moment, and its interesting to watch the finance channels at work now starting to ask if the USD is losing its status as the 'reserve' currency, similar to what i asked in this thread a few weeks ago

lol

Is this where I mention the irony of me being long AUD but viewing USD as not losing its reserve status, while you who think it will are actually short? Hehehehe.

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

AUD has consolidated in a tight 5-day range, and I still have the view that the
AUD is trying to move higher, but it keeps hitting resistance around
the Weekly levels.

Normally when I see a friday low support pattern, I would treat this week as starting
with a 2-day upward bias (as long as it's above the Weekly 50% level).

And if by Tuesday's close it's trading above the Weekly highs, then March high
target is 1.0353.

 

[prawn_86]

lol

Is this where I mention the irony of me being long AUD but viewing USD as not losing its reserve status, while you who think it will are actually short? Hehehehe.

haha all about timeframes isnt it.

My trade hasnt played out in the timeframe i thought it would, so i have moved my stop tighter to take away some of my risk, as the AUD is still showing amazing strength. A break of the 1.02 mark will have me stopped out, previous stop was around 1.0250 (all time high)

 

[explod]

You cannot hold flood waters back. The $US is trash and I do often tip my lid to contrarians, but that road is not for this ole black duck.

Should be a very interesting week.

 

[prawn_86]

The $US is trash

This has been known for decades, same as any Western country in a lot of debt. The question is a matter of when, not if.

In the meantime it doesnt mean you cant make money trading the shorter term movements

 

[explod]

This has been known for decades, same as any Western country in a lot of debt. The question is a matter of when, not if.

In the meantime it doesnt mean you cant make money trading the shorter term movements

Agree, but amazing the numbers who are still not aware and other unconvinced. I believe the non reaction (of the index) to Benanke's statements to Congress last week my indicate a real move south soon.

 

[sinner]

You cannot hold flood waters back. The $US is trash and I do often tip my lid to contrarians, but that road is not for this ole black duck.

Should be a very interesting week.

The USD is trash but so what, is any other paper better or worse than the "trash"?

We aren't placing bets as to which is trash explod, only which is trashier in the short short term, and you know it explod so it's not necessary to spout the same spiel over and over. If you have an opinion and a chart, share it.

 

[Whiskers]

ABARES expects the AUD/USD to average US97c to 2012/3 before easing back to average US90c about 2015/6. (page 18)

http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abares99001790/AC11.1_March_part_1_REPORT.pdf

It notes that the AUD is stronger against the USD relative to others mainly because of their QE and demand for our commodities and assuming the US starts to reign in it's debt and anticipating Aus interest rates to ease a year or so out, the AUD will ease back to about US90c.

 

[prawn_86]

Whats other members take on it now for the shorter term. Seems to be playing out as i hoped, just took a bit longer.

A 'close' today below 1.01 would help signal further downside imo

 

[Frank D]

AUD/USD

"if Tuesday remains choppy resulting in a 2nd 'stall' day above the Weekly
50% level, then from Wednesday onwards we could see selling pressure
on the AUD…." (Yesterday’s report)

I had the view that the first 2-days would try and rise upwards, but Monday's highs
sent the AUD back down, and Tuesday ended up as a 2nd stall day above the
Weekly 50% level.

Based on the current price action, (below Weekly 50% level) and Wednesday's
selling, I would look for the AUD to move down into the Weekly lows and March
50% level @ .9993

 

[Paulo30]

I'm still holding a short position, since about a week, aiming at 0.9970, entered at 1.0100; today's rise doesn't look that convincing, so I see no reason to exit at this point.

Whats other members take on it now for the shorter term. Seems to be playing out as i hoped, just took a bit longer.

A 'close' today below 1.01 would help signal further downside imo