ASX 200 prediction

[sptrawler]

I wouldn't bet on this being the bottom.
Time will tell.

 

[MarketMatters]

We are very close to finding out. A close on the DOW below 24579 will likely warn of a CRASH.

Be prepared either way but the sooner these elections come and go the better! Seriously fake bombs isn't going to change the vote!

 

[Darc Knight]

You guys are better at looking forward than I am, so:

October, worst month since GFC.
ASX200 down 8.7% for October. Down 6.6% ytd.
11% below August peak.

ASX200 delivered 12.4% post GFC (up to August).
ASX200 20year return is 8.5%, 9.1% before this last dive.
Dividends 4.5% on average

 

[Darc Knight]

Bargain hunters pushing the ASX200 up 1.1% today.

 

[Darc Knight]

ASX200 continues to inch it's way up. Surely it can't keep going too long. We're not going to get another bull market so better it crashes and we start again I reckon.

 

[sptrawler]

ASX200 continues to inch it's way up. Surely it can't keep going too long. We're not going to get another bull market so better it crashes and we start again I reckon.

In the scheme of things, our market isn't overpriced.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/statistics

With the Dow bouncing up and down, we are treading water, if the Dow tanks we will follow.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

It all becomes a bit self fulfilling, if people get scared they head for the doors, when the stampede starts the fun begins.
But on a P/E basis, everything isn't doom and gloom, it is when the masses get scared and stop spending, the problems start.
Just my thoughts.

 

[MarketMatters]

Really not seeing any recession in the US until late 2019/20 as one trigger (interest rates being applied too fast and too late). Europe could definitely be a cause for one with the region showing instability in Germany (politically) and Italy (debt) and then the unknown outcomes of Brexit. Overall we are a small piece of the world puzzle but I agree with sptrawler - we are not overpriced, yet this means nothing at this stage as the money flows chase growth into US (growing economy) which involves selling stagnating economies like parts of the Euro and Oz.

 

[Darc Knight]

I hear finance commentators in the Media regularly say they've gotten out of the Aus share market. Add to that the length of time since we've had a recession and subsequent clean out, you'd think we're due. The U.S. less likely, particularly as Trump has hitched his wagon to being a good economic manager, and they had the GFC we didn't.

 

[Darc Knight]

Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:

"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”

https://wilsonassetmanagement.com.a...-labors-dividend-plan-will-worsen-correction/

Seems a bit dramatic.

 

[willy1111]

Have seen a couple of different t/a's suggesting Oz index has a bounce back up to 6000 then another sell off to around 5400/5300 possibly 4500 taking 6 mths to a year...from there they think the next leg up will break all time highs.

 

[Skate]

Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:

"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”

https://wilsonassetmanagement.com.a...-labors-dividend-plan-will-worsen-correction/

Seems a bit dramatic.

The article reflects current thinking..

"Seems a bit dramatic" the economy will worsen if Labor gets back in. (IMHO)

Skate.

 

[Darc Knight]

I can understand the thinking that a Labor Gov might worsen things, but drawing the link between changes to the Div Imp system and a Recession seems far fetched.
Spending and Production aren't likely to plummet due to Div Imp changes Ida thought.

 

[Ann]

Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:

"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”

https://wilsonassetmanagement.com.a...-labors-dividend-plan-will-worsen-correction/

Seems a bit dramatic.

I have a bit of time for Geoff Wilson and have spoken to and heard him speak on a few occassions. Back in '06 (I think?), he convinced me there was going to be an almighty crash on its way. If Geoff speaks, I listen.

 

[PZ99]

Wilson Asset Management still pretty negative about outlook. I'm guessing they're championing their Investors cause and their own bottom line:

"Wilson Asset Management chairman Geoff Wilson says Labor’s proposed changes to dividend imputation laws will worsen the effects of a looming bear market in equities ....... We believe Shorten and Bowen’s plans will have dramatic implications for the equity and property markets, resulting in the first economic recession in Australia for 27 years.”

https://wilsonassetmanagement.com.a...-labors-dividend-plan-will-worsen-correction/

Seems a bit dramatic.

Seems like a manipulation attempt to attain some cheap stocks to me.

Hell, I'll sprout anti-Labor theories to score a decent dip anytime

PS, the election results are expected around the same time as the ASX opens today.

 

[Darc Knight]

Seems like a manipulation attempt to attain some cheap stocks to me.

Hell, I'll sprout anti-Labor theories to score a decent dip anytime

PS, the election results are expected around the same time as the ASX opens today.

I first heard them saying that this is the start of the next bear market, back when that correction occurred a month ago. Now they've upped the anti to a full blown recession.
I'd prefer it, but I'm skeptical.

 

[PZ99]

I first heard them saying that this is the start of the next bear market, back when that correction occurred a month ago. Now they've upped the anti to a full blown recession.
I'd prefer it, but I'm skeptical.

So am I. I don't know too many investors who can cash in their franking credits so IMO the number of people affected just isn't big enough to break the economy. Most people don't even know what franking credits are.

 

[SirRumpole]

PS, the election results are expected around the same time as the ASX opens today.

So what effect would Democrat control of the HReps have on the Dow do you think (if it happens) ?

 

[PZ99]

So what effect would Democrat control of the HReps have on the Dow do you think (if it happens) ?

Very little. But the opposite result against the odds might have had a volatile affect like last time.

 

[sptrawler]

I can understand the thinking that a Labor Gov might worsen things, but drawing the link between changes to the Div Imp system and a Recession seems far fetched.
Spending and Production aren't likely to plummet due to Div Imp changes Ida thought.

I would have thought the changes to negative gearing and CGT, would have greater ramifications. The changes to Div Imp, will just reduce the amount of retirees in the market. IMO
Having said that, the changes to CGT, will have an effect on share traders. How much of an effect, will be interesting to see.

 

[trading_rookie]

I have a bit of time for Geoff Wilson and have spoken to and heard him speak on a few occassions. Back in '06 (I think?), he convinced me there was going to be an almighty crash on its way. If Geoff speaks, I listen

If Wilson said the almighty crash was gonna happen in July 2007 then I’d listen. It’s common sense what goes up must eventually come down…but telling me exactly when it’s gonna come down…then and only then I’d be impressed.

we are not overpriced, yet this means nothing at this stage as the money flows chase growth into US (growing economy) which involves selling stagnating economies like parts of the Euro and Oz.

This article from the AFR 3 days ago has me convinced otherwise. The economic data presented highlights the US economy isn’t growing faster than Oz’s. We are on our way to record a budget surplus, their large tax cuts have grown their budget deficit by a further 17%. Our yr-on-yr GDP growth is at 3.4%, theirs is at 3%. Both countries enjoying low jobless figures

I guess it’s all in the marketing and spiel…


https://www.afr.com/markets/behind-the-decoupling-of-us-and-australian-rates-20181102-h17g7l

Well worth a read