ASX 200 prediction

[Darc Knight]

ASX200 down another 1.05% today and 5.8% for October so far.

 

[IFocus]

Another plunge? If so 5600 could be a target area might have to make a plan when to buy some BBOZ to hedge the Superfund.

Just to add the banks looking set to head south again

 

[sptrawler]

The banks have a ways to go yet, there is no way they will be making the profits they were, so therefore money will get tight interest rates up, ASX down. IMO
Add to that, the negative gearing and CGT changes, housing and building sector slowdown.
Where the ASX ends up will be anyones guess, mine is 5250-5500 range.
Hopefully Morrison just decides he may as well call an election.

 

[Darc Knight]

Where the ASX ends up will be anyones guess, mine is 5250-5500 range.

Strewth Homer, that bad? I guess we missed the GFC cleanout so we are due.

 

[sptrawler]

Strewth Homer, that bad? I guess we missed the GFC cleanout so we are due.

IMO there is a lot of truth in that statement, we have had a flat lining since the resources boom, add to that the contraction in manufacturing and the increase in power costs it isn't good.
When labor take Government, it will line up somewhat with the fall out from the Banking Royal Commission, therefore not only will the monetary system tighten, but the property investors should dry up.
There is also a call to curb population growth in Sydney/Melbourne, which should exacerbate the problem.
Housing and related industries has carried the Australian economy for the last 4 years, but if it falls over there doesn't appear to be much to fill the gap IMO.
There is a big push in W.A to get a lithium plant up and running, but you are only talking a small workforce, mining is taking off but nothing like the last boom.
So another of those recessions we have to have looks imminent, IMO, probably soon after Labor get in, that's why I think bring it on the sooner we start the sooner we finish.

 

[Darc Knight]

IMO there is a lot of truth in that statement, we have had a flat lining since the resources boom, add to that the contraction in manufacturing and the increase in power costs it isn't good.
When labor take Government, it will line up somewhat with the fall out from the Banking Royal Commission, therefore not only will the monetary system tighten, but the property investors should dry up.
There is also a call to curb population growth in Sydney/Melbourne, which should exacerbate the problem.
Housing and related industries has carried the Australian economy for the last 4 years, but if it falls over there doesn't appear to be much to fill the gap IMO.
There is a big push in W.A to get a lithium plant up and running, but you are only talking a small workforce, mining is taking off but nothing like the last boom.
So another of those recessions we have to have looks imminent, IMO, probably soon after Labor get in, that's why I think bring it on the sooner we start the sooner we finish.

The Perfect Storm perhaps?

 

[sptrawler]

The Perfect Storm perhaps?

Well when you see how worried the regulators are, with regard lending for housing, it tells you they are crapping themselves. You just have to join the dots. IMO

https://thewest.com.au/business/hou...d-loan-curbs-based-on-postcodes-ng-b88999665z

Australia definitely is due a reset, everyone is maxed out and wants more.
The only growth sector is fast food and coffee and that won't prop up the ASX.
Like you say "the perfect storm". IMO

 

[MarketMatters]

Curbing lending on postcodes is nothing new. Banks have done this for quite some time to moderate risk in lending (surprisingly!).
Being the only country to last as long as we have recession free is possibly not a great banner to be flying high. Karma!

 

[Darc Knight]

ASX 200 down for the fourth day in a row - .25 of a percent today.
5829!

 

[IFocus]

A few more buyers around high volume narrow bar day will it hold?

 

[Darc Knight]

Down 2.8% to 5664 today. As someone else said, down 10% since August.

 

[Darc Knight]

5750 today I'll go, on the back of the Dow's gains.

 

[IFocus]

Should see some sort of bounce consolidation soon not so sure its a bottom

 

[MarketMatters]

S&P500 only a few % away from February lows. Possible bounce from here? Dow has a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 24965. Break that and further declines follow. Still trend is your friend at present and on a monthly level would need to break 23995.

 

[MarketMatters]

Don't forget the margin loan holders who may be called up during these times providing false levels.

 

[kid hustlr]

Thinking the ASX SPI is worth a long punt here if you were looking for it.

Stop at today's low looking for a short cover.

The fut's has had a go at new lows and can't seem to drive any further. A short term bounce might be on the cards.

 

[kid hustlr]

Thinking the ASX SPI is worth a long punt here if you were looking for it.

Stop at today's low looking for a short cover.

The fut's has had a go at new lows and can't seem to drive any further. A short term bounce might be on the cards.

 

[tech/a]

From my Eyeballed measured moves
and analysis I feel this will likely RANGE between
5740 ish to 6370 ish---Stagnant.

This was the XAO
I think we have found the bottom of the range.

 

[IFocus]

This was the XAO
I think we have found the bottom of the range.

Recon your right the weekly show support area and confluence with Fib extension

 

[MarketMatters]

Looks a good start