ASX 200 prediction

[SirRumpole]

BUT I've read about Rupert Murdoch and he built his empire on crap load of debt, tax benefits etc.

Same with Alan Bond. Did what he did on other people's money and had the gift of the gab to persuade people to part with their cash.

 

[IFocus]

So a reverse head and shoulder at 5800 ish or impulse lower to test 5660?

 

[IFocus]

On the weekly not quite as dramatic 5660 is a good chance IMHO

 

[sptrawler]

I remember listening years ago to a successful property investor and he hammered the point that any investment had to stand on its own legs neg gearing was just an added benefit never the reason to invest.

I am a fence sitter on neg gearing plenty of reasons to scrap and it will have to go one day but easy to mess up if done badly.

I'm with you on that, I remember discussing it at work one time a lot of the guys were saying interest only, I said negative gearing only halves your loses it is still a loss.
When I bought property they were positive geared, or I didn't bother, you may lose out on some gains but you seldom cop a loss.

 

[sptrawler]

One of Noel Whittaker's "Golden Rules of Wealth" is never invest for tax reasons: " Always judge an investment on its merits– any tax benefits should be regarded as the cream on the cake."

I think the same ideology should now be applied to super.

 

[trading_rookie]

@willy1111

The more likely action is that they wait until the smsf is in pension phase and possibly pay $0 tax.

Maybe so for baby boomers, but Gen Xers still has along way to go to retirement age, a lot can happen economically in the next couple of decades.

The proposed change to the CGT will have much bigger impact on investments in personal name. The $1.2m gain, currently only $600k gets taxed at marginal rate, under Labours proposal $900k would be taxed at marginal rate = $141k more in tax...thats where the big difference is!

Agree 100%

We just pay more tax...you don't see wage earners knocking back pay increases as they have to pay more tax...although you do see some knocking back overtime.

Maybe the greedy and those not in the know…until they visit their accountant at the EOFY. Those in the know, know a pay rise of $2K could cost them more than $2K when tax time comes around.

Coincidentlly, I was speaking with a friend yesterday who told me about his work situation and how he was due a lot in back pay and was getting a pay rise…wasn’t excited one bit as he knew he would be forking out more in tax.


@MarketMatters

However more times than not most people don't care of the net effect as they embrace the magnitude of how much they made! Seriously how many people do you hear gloat I made a NET XX% return?

A lot actually...can't say I've ever heard anyone who made a considerable capital gain on a property sale for example deduct all fees, expenses, and CGT while mentally working out their profit.

Hell, even businesses like to quote EBITA

 

[MarketMatters]

On the weekly not quite as dramatic 5660 is a good chance IMHO

View attachment 90278

We are favouring a bounce off 5600 leading into Christmas.

 

[IFocus]

We are favouring a bounce off 5600 leading into Christmas.

Been waiting to see if the Xmas rally will line up

Question for Porper is that a 5 wave down and now a possible ABC?

 

[MarketMatters]

 

[Porper]

Been waiting to see if the Xmas rally will line up

Question for Porper is that a 5 wave down and now a possible ABC?


View attachment 90396

This is the count I have been working with but it isn't textbook.

It could be a 5 wave leg down to today's low as IFOCUS points out but again not textbook as wave-4 is strong which isn't typical. Also it's a truncated wave 5 as it ends above wave-3 low. This is unusual as well. My guess is some churn then down again.

 

[sptrawler]

It should be a good opportunity for all those young people, who couldn't afford a house in the boom, to take a chance a put their money into the market.
I wonder if after this market and housing shake out, everyone will be still blaming the 'baby boomers' for the younger generation having no opportunity?
Not wanting to sound bitter, but a lot of the 'baby boomers' will loose a lot of their super, which they didn't have a lot of to start with.
Those who are working just ride through this down period, whereas those living on super have minimum draw downs and have to take money out whether they want to or not.
If they don't have the money in cash, they are forced to sell some of their shares, even though they are at ridiculous lows.
Labors plan to cut the franking credit income, will exacerbate this problem and have a reverse compounding effect.
Those SMSF retirees will be on the pension in no time.

OOPs sorry, I just saw the thread heading, I think we still have a few hundred points to go down yet.
Porper's chart just made me a melancholy.

 

[tinhat]

Right now we are back at the support line that held up during late 2017. If the XAO doesn't hold from here the next support might be above 5600 and I would have a guess that if we got there it would be on the back of the big 4 banks. After that. Trouble.

 

[sptrawler]

My guess is if the all ords takes a tumble, we will be at 5250 in no time.
It may actually coincide with the Federal election. IMO

 

[IFocus]

Thanks Porper/MM for the counts as always we wait for confirmation ........or more questions

 

[MarketMatters]

Agree

 

[PZ99]

Green shoots everywhere at the moment... ASX futures up 1%

 

[IFocus]

Buyers still around should get a bounce from here

 

[notting]

China exposed stocks have been showing a lot of strength and gains in the last few days.
Would not be surprised to see some kind of fake deal announced with the US soon.
It's always a lie and a way to cheat when China pretends to make a deal, but the market never seems to learn and will go nuts.

 

[IFocus]

China exposed stocks have been showing a lot of strength and gains in the last few days.
Would not be surprised to see some kind of fake deal announced with the US soon.
It's always a lie and a way to cheat when China pretends to make a deal, but the market never seems to learn and will go nuts.

Would be nice if it goes nuts to Xmas

Brought a little bit of ANZ / WES this morning

 

[lenny]

This leg down on the XJO has been approx. -11% which is within the range of a correction, but the worrying thing is how strong and impulsive the selling has been and how weak the buying has been with distribution.

Another low volume bounce would be a worry.