ARU - Arafura Rare Earths

[treeman]

Did you end up going out? I decided to go out before close, I guess tomorrow will tell if I panicked or not lol

 

[brettc4]

Yes Treeman, I sold up.
I will keep an eye on it, out of curiousity to see how the news it taken. Hopefully I will pick something up which will help me in the future.

Brett

 

[rhen]

Shasha Lu Executive Director

Qualifications PhD, Masters degree

Appointed 21 July 2009

Ms. Shasha Lu was Executive Director and CEO of Hong Kong East China Non-Ferrous Mineral Resources Co. Ltd. (HKECE), a wholly owned subsidiary of Eastern China Exploration & Development Bureau (ECE). HKECE holds the foreign business interests of ECE.

As an employee of Arafura and based in Nanjing in the Peoples Republic of China, Ms. Lu is responsible for Business Development opportunities and synergies for Arafura within China.

Ms. Lu graduated with a Masters Degree from the Nanjing University in 1997 and completed her Doctorate at Tianjin University in 2005. She has held posts within the World Health Organisation in Geneva and the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. She is currently studying an EMBA in Nanjing University.

At present, Ms Lu is also a director of HKECE, Hongkong Southwest Gold Inc., Australian ECE Nolans Investment Limited and ECE Nolans Investment Pty Ltd.

With credentials like these, one can't but think positively about ARU.
Especially with the storm in a teacup over LYC...or is it?
I can't blame our Government for its actions. So how about this chink (pardon the pun) in the Chinese armour of rare earth dominance? 97% is the latest figure I have read.
Its (ARU) chart is not too impressive at the moment.

How will the two protagonists...protagonist/antagonist...resolve the rare earth bounty ARU must represent?

 

[treeman]

Interesting to watch, looks like the bears are comming out, im considering catching the knife if it dips to 60

 

[ectoplasm]

Hi treeman,

ARU is up ~ 10% on increased volume today. No news but seems to have made a bottom round here and seems set to bounce...

Daily chart, below: --------------------------------------------------------------& Close up for them interested:

 

[enigmatic]

Something is up with this one today been very quiet until today up 5cents most of the day then suddenly up another 5cents.

looking forward to the announcement which is coming.. surely someone knows something we don't.

 

[Sdajii]

Something is up with this one today been very quiet until today up 5cents most of the day then suddenly up another 5cents.

looking forward to the announcement which is coming.. surely someone knows something we don't.

I watched this one all day with great interest. I only hold a piddly little amount (less than 3,000 shares), but it's still exciting to see this happen. I tried to find out what was going on, but came up with nothing. Either someone just decided they really really wanted some for their own reasons and kept buying all day, or some stock recommendation site put up a buy recommendation, or (hopefully!) you're right and someone knows something we don't.

Presumably we'll either see an announcement or a speeding ticket tomorrow?

 

[enigmatic]

Some strong movement with this one lately up another 12cents today.
with the strong outlook of the future now becoming more of a reality again the worth of Nolan is huge..

Holding long term DYOR

 

[skc]

Another nice spike today on pretty large volume... what's the insider news?

Recent company presentation points to a project NPV of US$1.1B after repayment of capital... that's >$4 per share.

Even if you take a nice discount rate of 25% to 3 years out, the value today should still be ~$2.

Discl. Went long today. Researched afterwards.

 

[enigmatic]

skc if you look into this one you might find what i have.. reason i bought at 27cents the NPV is great at current prices, however the trend of Rare earth growth in prices and demand is clearly out stripping the growth in supply.
Which will give an even greater NPV not to mention if they find more resource base.

DYOR. Long term holder

 

[Sdajii]

Does anyone have any light to shed on the situation? Things were looking pretty rosy, I would have expected a positive response to the capital raising at 62c, but suddenly *bang* they are trading in the 50s! Other than the possibility of people sitting around very happy with their profits and not willing to take part in a capital raising for more than they bought in for, I can't explain a poor SPP result, and I am at a loss to explain the immediate price drop to below 62c. I can't see this capital raising being successful, which is a shame. It would have been handy if it was underwritten.

After buying in the 70s I increased my holdings in the 90s, and now in the 50s I'm not feeling great. I think the future for ARU still looks pretty good, but the current situation puzzles me.

 

[ChrysalisB]

ARU looks like a good investment now given the news that China has announced its intention to cap production of rare earths until year end and has also stopped issuing licenses to mine until next June.

Further,China's Cabinet is examining a proposal to limit production of rare earths to a select group of State run enterprises,thus enabling complete control over export destinations and quantities. Given that China supplies 95% of rare earths to the world this has got to be positive news here as well.

Nothing wrong with protecting one's own national interests, especially when it also assists a trading partner. I say stuff the global elite's Conditional Trade policy they call Free Trade

 

[oldblue]

I've been looking at ARU and LYC for some time now, waiting for signs of real progress.
Anyone care to state the case for one over the other?

 

[Sdajii]

We've seen quite a rally today, up 11% today as of 1.30pm, following a big increase yesterday.

Does anyone have any idea why? Since LYC has only increased slightly I am assuming that whatever has caused the jump is specific to ARU, and LYC is moving up just because people are wondering what the interest in ARU is, and speculating that it might be about rare earths rather than ARU.

Disclosure: Very modest holder.

 

[oldblue]

We've seen quite a rally today, up 11% today as of 1.30pm, following a big increase yesterday.

Does anyone have any idea why? Since LYC has only increased slightly I am assuming that whatever has caused the jump is specific to ARU, and LYC is moving up just because people are wondering what the interest in ARU is, and speculating that it might be about rare earths rather than ARU.

Disclosure: Very modest holder.

Presumably it's related to the update on Nolans which was released on 15 June. SP has been increasing since then.

 

[Sdajii]

Presumably it's related to the update on Nolans which was released on 15 June. SP has been increasing since then.

Strange to see little movement on the 15th, 16th and fairly little one the 17th, then BANG up 13% on the 18th. Not that I'm complaining.

 

[jonojpsg]

We've seen quite a rally today, up 11% today as of 1.30pm, following a big increase yesterday.

Does anyone have any idea why? Since LYC has only increased slightly I am assuming that whatever has caused the jump is specific to ARU, and LYC is moving up just because people are wondering what the interest in ARU is, and speculating that it might be about rare earths rather than ARU.

Disclosure: Very modest holder.

Don't know anything news-wise, but have definitely been looking at ARU as a potential short term trade. At 40c they were well due for a bounce given their last cap raising was at 60c and they have been trading around that. While there is still a couple of years before they are producing, IMO they are good value even at 50c.

 

[jonojpsg]

And, as my last post noted, they were good value at 50c

Keep an eye on ARU - with China cutting back on rare earth exports AND the fact that they produce 95% of world production - there is little doubt that ARU stand to move pretty quickly back to previous levels (bounced to $1 in Jan).

Intraday high of 66c in April is resistance so if it breaks that then should head back towards 80+.

Doing my best to reinvigorate ASF

 

[Sdajii]

I'm still holding a modest amount. I think ARU has a very positive future, but with production not being too close yet I think patience is required by the shareholders. That, in my opinion, makes now a great time to accumulate this one, so that when it does get moving (which could happen at any time) you’re holding as much as possible which you obtained at the current bargain prices. The requirement for these elements is clear, and the situation with the supply puts us in a very nice position, but we're probably going to stay under the radar until we're closer to production. It could get moving at any time, but I expect it not to be too soon. At some point between now and production I expect a big rerating of ARU – this situation is fairly clear, it’s just not something a lot of people are currently too excited about, because of the timeframe.

 

[blackjack]

I'm still holding a modest amount. I think ARU has a very positive future, but with production not being too close yet I think patience is required by the shareholders. That, in my opinion, makes now a great time to accumulate this one, so that when it does get moving (which could happen at any time) you’re holding as much as possible which you obtained at the current bargain prices. The requirement for these elements is clear, and the situation with the supply puts us in a very nice position, but we're probably going to stay under the radar until we're closer to production. It could get moving at any time, but I expect it not to be too soon. At some point between now and production I expect a big rerating of ARU – this situation is fairly clear, it’s just not something a lot of people are currently too excited about, because of the timeframe.

yes a long way from production and chinese all cashed up are looking for these plays so speculate
on it
i went for LYC as they are closer to production