ARU - Arafura Rare Earths
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Re: ARU uranium miner
It's the climate for speculation on uranium.
Give me production and rising prices for the long term.
It's the climate for speculation on uranium.
Give me production and rising prices for the long term.
Check my calcs - ARU SSPP value dilution
All,
ARU is issuing up to 30% new shares at 32c to existing share holders
Current share price: around 50c
Here are my dilution calculations
If the maximum of 30% new shares are issued....
(For clarification "Current share price" = share price on the date of issue)
If the current share price is 36c - Share price will be diluted by 2.56% or .92c/share - Corrected share price 35.07
If the current share price is 42c - Share price will be diluted by 5.49% or 2.3c/share - Corrected share price 39.69c
If the current share price is 50c - Share price will be diluted by 8.31% or 4.15c/share - Corrected share price 45.84
So in theory if the share price dips below the corrected share price post date of issue due to people taking profits on the share offer, its a relatively cheap buy? (as long as there is no other news released)
Can someone check out my sums and let me know your opinions?
Cheers
Disclaimer: Dont believe anything I say, I hold ARU shares, I am not a professional trader, dont take anything here for granted, I make no recommendations.
All,
ARU is issuing up to 30% new shares at 32c to existing share holders
Current share price: around 50c
Here are my dilution calculations
If the maximum of 30% new shares are issued....
(For clarification "Current share price" = share price on the date of issue)
If the current share price is 36c - Share price will be diluted by 2.56% or .92c/share - Corrected share price 35.07
If the current share price is 42c - Share price will be diluted by 5.49% or 2.3c/share - Corrected share price 39.69c
If the current share price is 50c - Share price will be diluted by 8.31% or 4.15c/share - Corrected share price 45.84
So in theory if the share price dips below the corrected share price post date of issue due to people taking profits on the share offer, its a relatively cheap buy? (as long as there is no other news released)
Can someone check out my sums and let me know your opinions?
Cheers
Disclaimer: Dont believe anything I say, I hold ARU shares, I am not a professional trader, dont take anything here for granted, I make no recommendations.
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Re: Check my calcs - ARU SSPP value dilution
Hi Rasman
Your numbers look spot to me, but I only checked the case where the share price is 50c (bottom of your post) so I assume the rest are ok.
For anyone wondering how to calculate the diluted share price in Rasman's scenario, it's basically the same method as calculating a theoretical ex-rights price.
In this case they are issuing 3 new shares for every 10 at 32c per new share.
So if the the current share price = 50c then the theoretical new price (ex-rights/dilution or whatever) can be calculated as follows:
Theoretical diluted price = ((10 x 50c) + (3 x 32c)) / (3 + 10) = 45.84c
If anyone would like to discuss further I will be back on Saturday.
cheers
bullmarket
Hi Rasman
Your numbers look spot to me, but I only checked the case where the share price is 50c (bottom of your post) so I assume the rest are ok.
For anyone wondering how to calculate the diluted share price in Rasman's scenario, it's basically the same method as calculating a theoretical ex-rights price.
In this case they are issuing 3 new shares for every 10 at 32c per new share.
So if the the current share price = 50c then the theoretical new price (ex-rights/dilution or whatever) can be calculated as follows:
Theoretical diluted price = ((10 x 50c) + (3 x 32c)) / (3 + 10) = 45.84c
If anyone would like to discuss further I will be back on Saturday.
cheers
bullmarket
Rasman said:
Sean K
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Re: ARU - Aratura Resources
Do you own ARU, YT?
I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.
Joe, can you change the heading of this thread to it's correct name:
Arafura Resources
Thanks
Do you own ARU, YT?
I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.
Joe, can you change the heading of this thread to it's correct name:
Arafura Resources
Thanks
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Re: ARU - Aratura Resources
Do I own it?
You betcha!!!! I have been waiting for this ever since they ann it 3 months or so ago
kennas said:Do you own ARU, YT?
I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.
Joe, can you change the heading of this thread to it's correct name:
Arafura Resources
Thanks
Do I own it?
You betcha!!!! I have been waiting for this ever since they ann it 3 months or so ago
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Thats very very interesting, they plan on listing this new Uranium company after they drill,
This will be a huge listing I reckon, even trumping that of EME and TOE now that people know how strong they can go,
This new float has 3 huge outstanding factors,
1. 100% of its large tennements are in N.T. and already have confirmed Uranium Resources on them
2. Has a farm in over 1 of its 3 main projects from Candian major Lara
3. Will probably do substantial drilling before or as they list!!!!!!!!
This will be a huge listing I reckon, even trumping that of EME and TOE now that people know how strong they can go,
This new float has 3 huge outstanding factors,
1. 100% of its large tennements are in N.T. and already have confirmed Uranium Resources on them
2. Has a farm in over 1 of its 3 main projects from Candian major Lara
3. Will probably do substantial drilling before or as they list!!!!!!!!
Sean K
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Arafura's Uranium split: http://www.brr.com.au/event/ARU/774/12756
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You really do like bottom feeding FB.
I'd like it to turn around a bit
I'd like it to turn around a bit
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Sad but true. Only in the present climate.
Have had a few bullish wins in the property trusts section of the XAO of late though. KZL & ZFX did alright for me today also, as I bottom picked them to.
Have had a few bullish wins in the property trusts section of the XAO of late though. KZL & ZFX did alright for me today also, as I bottom picked them to.
Re: ARU - Aratura Resources
Hey Kennes,
You still holding these? YT what ab you? Ive been reading and reading about these. There is still plenty of time yet to jump on and get on the float. I really like what I have read and its probably a good entry level atm.
kennas said:Do you own ARU, YT?
I am holding and will get into the float, hopefully. And hopefully it comes on line in this type of environment. It has the chance to do a UTO if so. 300% on the day would be nice.
Joe, can you change the heading of this thread to it's correct name:
Arafura Resources
Thanks
Hey Kennes,
You still holding these? YT what ab you? Ive been reading and reading about these. There is still plenty of time yet to jump on and get on the float. I really like what I have read and its probably a good entry level atm.
Sean K
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Re: ARU - Aratura Resources
Yep, still there Chris. Holding most Aussie uranium plays medium term until there is more direction from Labor. I'm tipping a change to no new mines which puts all uranium explorers with something feasable on the long term buy/hold. Kennas
chris1983 said:
Yep, still there Chris. Holding most Aussie uranium plays medium term until there is more direction from Labor. I'm tipping a change to no new mines which puts all uranium explorers with something feasable on the long term buy/hold. Kennas
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K mans back !
Yeah Chris I'm still holding, but only about small amounts to get entitlement to min application being $2000,
While I'm annoyed at the delay in IPO (= lost time on money holding ARU) if they list IPO after they drill tennements with Canadian Lara and strike something, whooooo weeeee what an IPO list that will be!
!Yeah Chris I'm still holding, but only about small amounts to get entitlement to min application being $2000,
While I'm annoyed at the delay in IPO (= lost time on money holding ARU) if they list IPO after they drill tennements with Canadian Lara and strike something, whooooo weeeee what an IPO list that will be!
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Just playing Devil's Advocate:
Wouldn't the potential profit of the uranium spinoff be priced into the shares of ARU? In other words, wouldn't shareholders win on one and loose on the other?
Wouldn't the potential profit of the uranium spinoff be priced into the shares of ARU? In other words, wouldn't shareholders win on one and loose on the other?
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YOUNG_TRADER said:K mans back
Yeah Chris I'm still holding, but only about small amounts to get entitlement to min application being $2000,
While I'm annoyed at the delay in IPO (= lost time on money holding ARU) if they list IPO after they drill tennements with Canadian Lara and strike something, whooooo weeeee what an IPO list that will be!
It looks like you have to hold a little longer. I have the honor to talke with the company a few days ago. To be fair, they are honest people. The try to unlock the Uranium value without capital gain tax, and giving no benefit to newcomers. This is why the ARU share price is still suffering. I believe keep it to yourself is a way to shot your foot by yourself. Without new buyers, who is interested in your wanderful stock?
By the way, I believe the company's success is depending on how they can unlock the REE/P/U asset. It is one of the kind in the whole world. Wanderful asset.
Overall, I still see the value of this company. Gold and Iron assets are a good sidekick, particularly, the iron royality.
Sean K
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ARU hasn't had the run like the other U plays over the past week or so which has been disappointing.
Their ann yesterday was OK. Only $4.5m in the bank means raising on the horizon to me. Especially with the demerger happening in early November. How is $4.5m going to run 2 companies?? They should have gone the IPO I reckon, then they'd be flush.
Found a solid base at $0.35 and is that a rounded bottom starting to form?
A bit of head wind between $0.40 and $0.45.....
Their ann yesterday was OK. Only $4.5m in the bank means raising on the horizon to me. Especially with the demerger happening in early November. How is $4.5m going to run 2 companies?? They should have gone the IPO I reckon, then they'd be flush.
Found a solid base at $0.35 and is that a rounded bottom starting to form?
A bit of head wind between $0.40 and $0.45.....
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