ARQ - Arc Energy

[Logique]

You can blame me for a tiny part of that volume, on the Buy side. I nearly choked on the weeties when I saw that quoted unrisked value of $ 8.50 /diluted share. This was appropriately qualified fortunately, the unrisked value is the potential upside if they have 100 % exploration success. Possible, but likelihood indeterminate.

Happy with the (lower) 12mth target, and with those four listed current exploration prospects for increase.

 

[Dukey]

Well my $5k SPP cheque has been cashed - just hoping they give me the full entitlement!! - what are the chances of that happening...??
Have been in ARQ for quite a while now - nice to see them finally get up and start running instead of plodding/stumbling. A very well run company I think - but the SP hasn't reflected that for over a year. But the Wandoo t/o has really raised their profile and looking good from here... Those valuations look great.

 

[Logique]

You'll soon know Dukey,

Key SPP dates, indicative only:
- Offer closed 21 June
- Issue and quotation of shares under the SPP - 28 June 2007

 

[Ken]

Well i am keen to find out also.

I would expect the share price to fall for profit takers....

But not sure whether its the best thing to be doing considering its right before tax time....


I hope people have been lazy and forgotten to apply for shares. I reckon a scale back would have to be on the cards.

I owned 2000 shares at the time, but applied for $5000 worth so who knows.

Not counting my chickens....

 

[wintermute]

Well appendix 3B came out today and it is 26 million odd share that have been placed. under the options of oversubsciption they said they would place up to 30% of the issued capital (that equates to 77 million odd shares) so I think we should have got our full entitlements

I took the strategy of selling enough shares to give me $3000, and threw in an additional 2K to get the full $5k worth, bit of an each way bet, cashed in at a higher price with an (almost) guaranteed lower buy back price (assuming getting as many as I sold)... that way I took my profits before I even bought the shares

I'm betting that there was no scale back

Tony.

 

[OK2]

received my 5k or 3846 of shares today. SP has dropped back a little but still 1k up on the issue. a nice reminder of why not to daytrade every stock!

 

[Ken]

ARQ needs to keep its upward momentum, very important I feel.

Would be really ugly if ARQ pulled back to $1.30.

 

[Ken]

Has the trend changed? I think a lot of fund managers have now gone short on ARQ from what I have researched.

Opinions?

I am considering selling today.

 

[Logique]

As things stand it's hard to supply anything but an opinion Ken. I considered what you said, but decided to hold on. The price is doing it's best to stabilize around 1.53, the volumes being traded are nothing out of the ordinary, perhaps even falling away a little.

I'm seeing the recent price relaxation as some near term momentum exhaustion, combined with some post SPP profit taking. Until or unless the price action proves me wrong, I don't see that the trend is broken yet.

Oil back over USD71 a barrel last night, so that's the clincher for me.

 

[Logique]

Posting as a trial of the administrators chart posting instructions. Chart legend is self-explanatory, traders would be looking for consolidation from the rapid down leg, however ST trading isn't my approach to holding this stock.

 

[Logique]

Hope you're still with it Ken. Terrific announcements this morning. The partnership with Alcoa is a great move, a $billion in potential value according to the MD in the open briefing. The MD also said the Wandoo acquisition has turned out well, with more expected potential than they originally thought.

 

[Dukey]

It's intriguing to me the performance of ARQ share price since the recent spp - down from around $1.80 to low 1.50s.
And this despite improving outlooks for Canning; plus ADI's sugarloaf finally starting to look the goods and todays announcement!!

I presume it's just a case of profit takers after the spp - though I would expect all those recent sellers may regret it in down the track a ways.
IMO ARQ is fundamentally looking the best it has for a long time. As an investor - not a 'trader' - I expect to hold my ARQ spp shares for at least a year - barring some unforeseen catastrophe !!!!!

 

[wintermute]

even at $1.50 that is a 15% profit (or $750) on the $5000 placement. You will always get people who go for the stag profit... it is possible a lot of small purchases leading up to the cut off date were simply to get the right to apply for 5000 at 1.30..... with no interest in the company or it's prospects at all.

I'm quite happy to sit back again, as I think the next 12 months should be a lot more pleasant than the last

Tony.

 

[Ken]

At the cut off date for the placement, the shares were around $1.42 I think from memory. So your theory that it pushed the share price up to $1..80 is a little bit off.

So when the buying was going on in the 1.60's and 1.70's it was for different reasons as the record date passed.

 

[wintermute]

Just checked and the sp opened at 1.50 on the record date (17th May) and from the graph it looks like it closed at 1.49. It also peaked at close to 1.54 about a week before the entitilement date.

There may have been others who did what I did and sold a portion of their holdings (before sending in the cheque) to help fund the purchase of the entitlement.

Tony.

 

[cicak_kupang]

Just wondering if anybody is able to tell me the significance of what a jet pump is and what it is used for in the testing part of a well, re the ARQ announcement on their yemen drill..

."Oil Search reports that as at 0600 hrs Yemen time (+2 hrs GMT) on 18
July 2007, a Drill Stem Test, DST#2, over the lower section of the Nayfa
Formation in the Al Magrabah-1 well was underway and awaiting delivery
of a jet pump."

 

[cicak_kupang]

Phew, im just a bit over this down turn of the ARQ sp, still, not good market condidtions...... Surely the share is over sold by now?
Lets hope interest from ADI with sugarloaf and the spudding of Valentine in the canning sparks some interest.

 

[nioka]

Just wondering if anybody is able to tell me the significance of what a jet pump is

A jet pump usually works from the surface pumping liquid circling to the bottom of a well and returning. The return pipe is of greater diameter which creates a vacuum and allows the jet action to create a suction at that point drawing in fluid whuch is released at the top.
Hope that makes sense and I have explained it correctly.

 

[moneymajix]

Hartley's report, 14 August

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/brokerreports/Hartleys 14 Aug 07.pdf


See link for comparisons of players in the Canning basin.


Conclusions

The Canning Basin has received little attention from oil and gas companies over last few decades due to a
combination of perceived technical risk and a view that the Basin is too remote for discoveries to be commercial.
The tightening of the domestic gas supply market has changed this considerably. Hurdle sizes for commercial
discoveries are now lower, and the recent ARQ-Alcoa deal highlights the need for the Basin to be explored and
developed.
The Canning remains a prospective Basin and is likely to provide high value for companies willing to commit to
its exploration. It is one of the few Paleozoic petroleum systems in the world remaining relatively underexplored.
In our view this makes it prime real estate for oil and gas exploration and the ARQ-Alcoa deal gives greater
confidence in its future development. Of the companies with Canning Basin exposure, ARQ clearly has the
greatest leverage, with by far the dominant acreage holding. However, individual wells, such as Valentine-1,
highlight that there are opportunities for smaller players (such as FAR) to gain significantly from exploration in
the basin. Valentine-1 has potential to unlock significant value to its participants if successful. We think it will
mark the start of an active period of exploration in the Canning Basin.

 

[moneymajix]

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s2011552.htm

Companies vie for slice of Kimberley
AM - Wednesday, 22 August , 2007 08:04:00
Reporter: David Weber

...

Arc Energy is looking at a massive area in the Kimberley. Arc's Managing Director is Eric Streitberg.

ERIC STREITBERG: Our estimates run from relatively small quantities up to trillions of cubic feet of gas, which will be enough to supply Perth for 10 or 15 years.

DAVID WEBER: It's a fairly expansive area, 75,000 square kilometres that Arc Energy will be looking at. Why hasn't this been done before? Why hasn't this resource been exploited before?

ERIC STREITBERG: Basically because of its remoteness and the lack of a market for gas reserves. That's changed dramatically in the last three or four years as the West Australian resources boom has kicked off and there's been enormous upsurge in demand for gas. So if we do find any gas, we can now sell it and sell it at a good price.

DAVID WEBER: Do you envisage drilling across a wide area of the north-west, then?

ERIC STREITBERG: We certainly do, it's a geological area called the Canning Basin, which basically runs east from the coast between Broome and Derby and goes inland for three or 400 kilometres and we'll certainly be exploring right across that area. It's a very large area and it's quite a task for us but we think that with the application of modern technology, we've got a pretty good shot at finding something.

DAVID WEBER: Mr Streitberg says any gas that's found is expected to come on stream in 2010 or 2011, just in time for the start up of some iron ore projects in the area.