I really don't think ARQ will be going for a better offer, more likely worried that AWE will be thinking of a sp offer reduction, given their strong sp climb due to strong production at Tui.
It must be admitted that at $1.59 is at the lower end of most broker (and ARQs) valuation, however the market values ARQ much lower.
Certainly looks like the ARQ promo machine in action but IMO a defensive play as opposed to offensive
I agree with your conclusion, nick, although I don't think the Tui production has changed anything. Production was at strong levels before the t/o was announced and a review of reserves had already been foreshadowed, with a stong hint that an upgrade was expected.
The strength of the AWE sp may be more a result of the POO, as evidenced by sp increases for other producers, Woodside, STO, OSH, BPT etc.
Disc: Holding both ARQ and AWE