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ARQ - Arc Energy

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Todays news...

The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 52

Australian-listed Mineralogy is calling for a meeting of investors in ArcEnergy. Mineralogy is seeking a board revamp and to have Arc call off itstakeover of Anzon Energy. Clive Palmer, of Mineralogy, claims Arc should have consulted shareholders before agreeing to the Anzon acquisition. Recent purchases have pushed Mineralogy's shareholding in Arc above six per cent, and the group has signalled it intends to keep buying Arc stock until it has amassed a 10 per cent investment. Nexus Energy, which holds a 17.8 per cent interest in Anzon, is also reportedly opposed to the $A708 million takeover

Hmmm. I hope this doesn't turn into a total *fracas* between duelling powerful shareholders..

AJ
 
whats the go with arq ?

Like why did EGO pullout of the deeper push of the Stokes drill then buyback in even though it sounded like hydrocarbon shows were negated by poor reservoir quality? SP seems to endorse another negative result

Where is the Century rig off to now as that piece of equipments pricey and needs to be kept drilling ?

Will arq quell this rebellion ?

Will arq share price ever reflect its true value?

In case you haven't already guessed I'm overweight in ARQ and any positive feedback would really help to curb my suicidal tendencies that are manifesting themselves of late (also am big on BHP)
 
nick2fish said:
Like why did EGO pullout of the deeper push of the Stokes drill then buyback in even though it sounded like hydrocarbon shows were negated by poor reservoir quality? SP seems to endorse another negative result
Click to expand...
No idea why EGO did what it did - perhaps it didn't have the cash pay its share, but by pulling out it could participate by paying its (now higher) share out of future production?

I'm not sure what you mean by 'poor reservoir quality'. The way Nullara sucked up the mud, it appears the sands are both very permeable and porous. My understanding of it is that being shut in a for a few weeks should allow the trap to reach some sort of equalibrium, meaning if there is HC's down there they should make themselves known pretty quickly once the testing team gets up there. 1-2 days of flow max before we know.

nick2fish said:
Where is the Century rig off to now as that piece of equipments pricey and needs to be kept drilling ?
Click to expand...
The way I see it, they don't intend to test the Anderson sands for some time. With Century 18 away, I don't know how they'd set a plug.

From what I understand Century was moved on as it wasn't needed to test Nullara and SB is in an area that is prone to flooding during the wet season. Leaving it there risked it being stuck for some time. Plus ARQ has a drilling program that is now a long way behind.

nick2fish said:
Will arq quell this rebellion ?
Click to expand...
What's his name doesn't yet have enough shares to cause too much trouble. That said, I understand there's an arguement doing the rounds that they're seriously overpaying for AZA.

nick2fish said:
In case you haven't already guessed I'm overweight in ARQ and any positive feedback would really help to curb my suicidal tendencies that are manifesting themselves of late (also am big on BHP)
Click to expand...
That's never good. I personally would never hold a share that kept me awake at night.
 

Hold onto your hat man.... the unwinding of carry trades overnight is likely going to hit oil stocks hard in the short term.

.....and stay positive,


Cheers

AJ
 
Thanks for the info ... yea I think the price is too much but its a bit like the Rio thing but on a much smaller scale. big is best and companies pay a premium to get there. I prefer with an oil spec like Arq that exploration success to drive expansion rather than expensive acquisitions. Anyway I'm pretty positive about the Canning Basin so hanging tough and am optimistic about long term share price growth in general. Thanks again guys
 


Hi folks,

ARQ ... has 100% stake in the current Valhalla-1 well,
in Canning Basin ... no gas, but evaluating oil shows ...

..... expecting a positive cycle to come into play here.

Updated ARQ chart, attached.

happy days

paul



=====
 

Attachments

  • ARQupdate23112007.pdf
    58 KB · Views: 44
Good to see a rebound today from yesterday's closing price. I cannot work out arq! Here they are , lookin at a merger that will see them with a market cap of $1B plus. Exposure to Adi who are involved in a Potential Company Maker. They have a reasonable amount of cash in the bank with an income stream from Oil & Gas sales in Aust. Add to this near record Oil prices.
And their SP has vitually bottomed out!
What is doing?
If you go to their web site , & look up Broker reports , you can read what the Brokers are saying about this Company.

Why is the SP where it is now??

Any ideas / comments why?

Regards

Bazollie
 

Well, FWIW I think the problems they have had and are continuing to have with their high-hope Valentine-1 well probably doesn't help investor confidence right now....

http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Valhalla 1 Update 6 Dec 07.pdf

Also, sitting on big wads of cash (rather than rewarding their long suffering investors through the occasional special share or options offers or even the occasional special cash dividend) doesn't help either. Beach Petroleum does. So why not ARQ? Beats me.

Failing to offer any shareholder incentives, management had better hope this miserable Valentine-1 adventure redeems itself handsomely, or the SP will sink a fair bit lower yet IMO.....


AJ

**Disclaimer - I currently hold ARQ shares... so, do your own research!**


http://www.arcenergy.com.au/files/asx/ASX - Valhalla 1 Update 6 Dec 07.pdf
 
Hi people,

New to this thread, I dont currently hold ARQ, but following on from bazollie's comments I felt compelled to chuck in my

Given the buy recommendations I've seen for this stock, I wanted to find out more about it, and try to understand why the sp performance has been so disappointing. Given that the merged ARQ/AZA will have a market cap of well over $1B and cash reserves exceeding $100M, you could be forgiven for thinking that ARQ are trading at a significant discount to similar-sized, mid-tier companies like NXS.

They seem to have had some really bad luck with the Valhalla-1 drilling, with losing equipment down-hole , and the abortive Sokes Bay drilling has hurt them as well. The market may be saying that "we're unsure if these guys have the necessary technical capabilities to bring these projects to fruition", and on top of that it seems like the HC anomolies for these holes remain largely untested. So ok, there seems to be an element of operational risk here.

The PR campign for the merger seems to have been a bit of a mini-disaster as well, but in the long-term, I think teaming up with a more experienced partner like Anzon esp for the Gippsland Basin area is the way to go. With proven cash-generating operations elsewhere, imo these setbacks will eventually be overcome, and at some stage a re-rating of the sp should occur.

Imo, as with a lot of these companies like ARQ, TAP and NXS, their true value will not be realised until peak or even post-peak production as the cash-flow and the profits start to roll in. Investors hoping for a quick buck from these investments will find that they will best be rewarded by patience, and correct entry-level timing.

Just expressing my opinion here of course, feel free to agree/disagree! As always DYOR

jman
 
I talked to Arc about a dividend but they are trying to grow the company and keep as much percentage in each project as possible.

I am hoping/thinking that their strategy is good. They seem to be trying to generate as much cash as possible and then accumulating projects with good exploration(expansion) potential.

I have read that the Wandoo acquisition could be very good for the future with the bass gas project having very good near term expansion possibilities.(Trefoil,Aroo etc.). They also bought into a nearby field that Origin owns with possibly 50% of this project being theirs once some money is spent. They also went from 6%to approx. 30% in offshore Perth basin and they have had 2 discoveries(Frankland & Dunsborough) since then. They are drilling possibly 3 wells in January, February to prove whether these discoveries are commercial. It is possible that the Frankland gas discovery will be be piped to their Dongara gas facility if the economics are there. Time will tell.

They are also really giving it a go in the Canning Basin and hopefully they will prove up a substantial province.

As far as the share price goes it is very frustrating but I am in for the long term and like what I see.

Please do your own research. There is plenty of information at their website www.arcenergy.com.au
 
Eric's staked his future on the Canning Basin - there's oil there, similar geology has yielded billions of barrels of oil elsewhere in the world. The trouble is it's highly faulted and notoriously difficult to drill. 10m to the left or right and you may miss a stack of oil and wind up with a dry hole.

It's tough and the weather means drilling is only viable about half the year, but if it comes off its a company maker and then some. If not, then, well, you get that.
 
Arc is moving in the speculative -disappointment cycle at present up on impending drill results/progress reports and down on perceived adverse results. Because ARQ has had their setbacks in a challenging environment their share price has tumbled to a ridiculous level. I keep on accumulating in these downturns only to see the price tumble more. If it drops to $1.20 I'm gonna have to sell something to get in again. And the reason I will and will keep doing this is as "The Doctor " has said any discovery in the Canning could well be huge and with the exploration acreage ARQ holds these discoveries could well be in the multiples. The fact is ARQ is already a company that is traveling along nicely care of high oil and gas prices
Is increasing reserves by way of acquisition
The chance of a reserve upgrade in the near future due to exploration success is high.
As I am an investor, as opposed to a trader, I continue to hold and accumulate
 


Hi folks,

ARQ ... looking ahead, volatility in 2008 should make ARQ a good
trading stock, as some BIG swings are expected.

For example, time cycles in January-March 2008 show:

31122007-02012008 ..... negative news expected

09012008 ..... significant and negative light on ARQ

Many ARQ highs/lows/breakouts have figured in the past,
around 09-12 January, each year.

15012008 ..... minor and positive ... finances???

21012008 ..... significant and positive news expected

06-08022008 ..... 3 cycles bring a positive spotlight onto ARQ ...
... but, the share price may not be as strong as expected.

04-06032008 ..... 2 cycles - significant and positive news expected

10032008 ..... difficult times are highlighted here ... possibly
with the technology being used (???)

14-24032008 ..... significant and BIGtime negative cycle

27-28032008 ..... 2 cycles ... news expected here

... there's also some very nasty aspects coming ARQ's way in April 2008.

have a great weekend

paul



-----
 

Spot on Paul!! current route started on 9th Jan, I'm just wondering how low it will go! $1.00 seems to be the only tentative support on the long term monthly chart! Haven't seen prices this low for about 4 years if it hit's $1.00 I think I'll have to buy some more

Tony.
 

I just hope that it doesn't get to that $1.00 mark! I cannot believe the pricing of this stock. In the recent corporate presentation, there is a statement in this declaring that "the current share price is close to the value of proved & developed producing reserves."
The way I see it this is that all of the exploration in the future, any discoveries are basically a free hit with the share price. Add to this the ongoing project in the US that ARQ has ownership of via ADI & this must surely be worth something at least!
I am currently holding these, & feel particularly frustrated at the moment, wishing that something must go ARQ's way soon.
Maybe they broke a few mirrors & walked under some ladders recently??

Still waiting , Bazza.
 
Hang in there buddy...you're not alone thats for sure. My feeling is Canning will be worth the wait and the punters will stall the exchange trying to get back on
 
Hi there
any good reason as to why Arq has been smashed so much in the sp
Have traded this stock before when it was in the 1.40's

Couldnt help myself today bought back in at 1.04 has to be value ??
Looking to buy more if she goes under $1

Let me know if you have any negatives on the current value around $1
 
kingbrown said:
Hi there
any good reason as to why Arq has been smashed so much in the sp :
Click to expand...

One reason is the fall in value for ADI where ARQ is a major shareholder. Add to that a lack of news from the Canning basin and the history of not paying dividends and there is a lack on confidence in ARQ as a long term investment.
 
I don't think that their new accounting practices are helping either!!! what previously would have been a very decent profit becomes "on paper" a very minimal one... the cash position tells a different story.

It would be nice to know how long the various writedowns will continue for, and whether they are slowly including lots of past exploration, or whether it is only current.... Shareholders (myself included) may be wondering if the effect on profit of these writedows will ever end!

Tony.
 

Sorry to digress a little, but do you see amy correlation between a rise from 97.5 cents this morning to $1.06 today & the announcement from AED regarding their interests in acreages being sold off?

Just curious, as there was no news form arq , but in a shocker of a day on the market , arq did hold themselves reasonably well. Maybe the Canning Drill results which can't be too far away?

I still cannot understand why their price is at these levels with all of their cash on hand & other acreages screaming for holes to be drilled.

Anyway, would welcome comments / theories etc.


Regards

Bazza
 
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